(1) Bush will win the popular vote by MILLIONS. Guaranteed. And (2) he will win the EC handily. Guaranteed.
WHY? Because he has picked up votes in CA, NY, MA, NJ, MI, MN, IA, NM, and WI. In EVERY case, the result in each of the sdtates will be SUBSTANTIALLY better for Bush in 2004 than in 2000. By millions in total. NO ONE CONTRADICTS THIS.
Okay... NOW: IF Bush is getting more BLUE votes in BLUE states, doesn't it necessarily follow that he will also gain BLUE votes in RED states!??!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Of course it does.
SO: if Bush is doing better with BLUE voters in BLUE States, and as well or better with BLUE voters in Red states then he MUST poll many MANY more overall voters this year than he did in 2000.
Meanwhile, Kerry has higher UNFAVORABLE numbers than Gore did in 2000 - (hard to believe, I know!) and he has a much less enthusiastic base tha Gore did in 2000, or than Bush this year. (REMEMBER: in 2000, Gore out-polled every Democrat ever to run for the presidency except LBJ!) SO Kerry CANNOT get more votes this year than Gore did in 2000 - NOT REAL VOTES, FROM REAL PEOPLE THAT IS!
Okay... so, if Bush is UNEQUIVOCABLY going to do better in BLUE states this time out, the how can ANYONE believe that he will do worse in RED states - especially RED states which have strong GOP organizations - like FL (GOP guv and GOP state legislature, and a GOP challenger for the US Senate seat who is a head) and OH - which has a GOP guv and two GOP Senators?!?!?!?!?
Like I said: it CANNOT happen --- not without fraud, that is. SO Bush will hold nearly every Red state, and pick up one to a several BLUE states, and also do better in EVERY BLUE state - even the ones he fails to win!
Sure: Bush can do better in ther BLUE states WITHOUT putting a single one in his column; therefore a CLOSE Electoral College tally is POSSIBLE. BUT IT IS NOT LIKELY, because BLUE voters CA in FL are not too different than BLUE voters in FL: if more in CA are voting Bush this timeout in CA, than more will in FL, too.
SO it SHOULD be a blow-out PV & EC - unless there is massive voter fraud.
I feel that there is massive voter fraud already underway. The issue is will it be enough to make the races close?
I pray not. What else can I say? Except: RUDY 2008!