"ALL CAPS IN DEFENSE OF LIBERTY IS NO VICE."

Saturday, April 09, 2022

China, Fearing Regime Change by the U.S, Bulks Up Its Nuclear Deterrence Capabilities

An eye opening report. 

My first thought, "Well that's just great (*Eye-roll*)."

At the Wall Street Journal, "China Is Accelerating Its Nuclear Buildup Over Rising Fears of U.S. Conflict":

China has accelerated an expansion of its nuclear arsenal because of a change in its assessment of the threat posed by the U.S., people with knowledge of the Chinese leadership’s thinking say, shedding new light on a buildup that is raising tension between the two countries.

The Chinese nuclear effort long predates Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the U.S.’s wariness about getting directly involved in the war there has likely reinforced Beijing’s decision to put greater emphasis on developing nuclear weapons as a deterrent, some of these people say. Chinese leaders see a stronger nuclear arsenal as a way to deter the U.S. from getting directly involved in a potential conflict over Taiwan.

Among recent developments, work has accelerated this year on more than 100 suspected missile silos in China’s remote western region that could be used to house nuclear-tipped missiles capable of reaching the U.S., according to analysts that study satellite images of the area.

American leaders have said the thinking behind China’s nuclear advance is unclear. Independent security analysts who study nuclear proliferation say they are also in the dark about what is driving Beijing after exchanges between Chinese officials and analysts mostly dried up in the past few years.

The people close to the Chinese leadership said China’s increased focus on nuclear weapons is also driven by fears Washington might seek to topple Beijing’s Communist government following a more hawkish turn in U.S. policy toward China under the Trump and Biden administrations.

American military officials and security analysts are concerned China’s nuclear acceleration could mean it would be willing to make a surprise nuclear strike. The people close to the Chinese leadership said Beijing is committed to not using nuclear weapons first.

China plans to maintain an arsenal no larger than necessary to ensure China’s security interests, they said, adding that the Chinese military believes its nuclear weapons are too outdated to present an effective deterrent against a potential U.S. nuclear strike.

“China’s inferior nuclear capability could only lead to growing U.S. pressure on China,” one person close to the leadership said.

Nervous international reaction to Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s call for his nuclear forces to be put on alert following his invasion of Ukraine has offered Chinese officials a real-world lesson about the strategic value of nuclear weapons. So did Ukraine’s decision in 1994 to turn over the nuclear weapons left in the country after the breakup of the Soviet Union in return for security assurances from the U.S. and Russia.

“Ukraine lost its nuclear deterrence in the past and that’s why it got into a situation like this,” said a retired Chinese military officer with ties to the country’s nuclear program.

The people familiar with the Chinese leadership’s thinking said Beijing hasn’t conveyed any adjustments to the country’s nuclear policy as a result of developments in Ukraine. China’s Ministry of Defense didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The people have knowledge of Beijing’s thinking about nuclear policy through their work with various agencies involved in security issues. None are directly involved in the setting of nuclear policy. They didn’t preclude that future developments might change Beijing’s approach and said other factors may also be influencing the leadership’s approach to nuclear weapons.

Their observations nevertheless bring greater clarity to a shift in Beijing’s thinking that has far-reaching consequences globally. Rising tension between the U.S. and China over nuclear weapons could throw the world back into a Cold War-style nuclear standoff similar to that seen in the decades following World War II between the U.S. and Soviet Union.

The risk of miscalculations this time could be higher, however, because while the U.S. and Soviet Union communicated about their nuclear weapons during arms control talks from the late 1980s, the Chinese program and Beijing’s thinking on the role of nuclear weapons has been shrouded in secrecy. China has declined to engage in nuclear arms control talks with the U.S., saying Washington should first reduce its nuclear inventory.

U.S. government and private sector estimates put China’s nuclear arsenal in the low hundreds of warheads, far below the roughly 4,000 warheads held by both Russia and the U.S. The Pentagon says it now expects China to have 1,000 warheads by the end of this decade.

Satellite images taken during January show the last 45 of the temporary covers over each of 120 suspected missile silos near the city of Yumen have been removed, suggesting the most sensitive work at all of the silos has been completed, said Matt Korda, a senior research associate for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists in Washington. At two other smaller silo fields in western China, work is at earlier stages.

The silos at each of the sites are large enough for a new long-range Chinese missile known as the DF-41 that was put into service in 2020 and is capable of hitting the U.S. mainland, analysts say. Tests of missiles that are launched from aircraft and can carry nuclear warheads also give Beijing a stronger chance of being able to retaliate if it is hit first in a nuclear attack.

In public, China has played down its nuclear pursuits.

“On the assertions made by U.S. officials that China is expanding dramatically its nuclear capabilities, first, let me say that this is untrue,” Fu Cong, director general of the Foreign Ministry’s arms control department, said earlier this year. He said that China is working to ensure its nuclear deterrent meets the minimum level necessary for national defense.

Chinese leaders had seen nuclear weapons as being of limited value because they don’t offer realistic options for fighting most wars. A major shift occurred in early 2020, according to the people familiar with the leadership’s thinking, as the U.S. government hardened its stance toward Beijing in the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Strong criticism of the Communist Party from senior Trump administration officials spurred a consensus among Chinese leaders that Washington was willing to take greater risks to stop China’s rise, some of the people said.

A May 2020 speech in Mandarin by former Deputy National Security Adviser Matt Pottinger was particularly alarming, they said. Speaking on the anniversary of a pivotal 1919 student protest in China, Mr. Pottinger said: “Wasn’t the goal to achieve citizen-centric government in China, and not replace one regime-centric model with another one? The world will wait for the Chinese people to furnish the answers.”

“The speech was obviously calling the Chinese to topple the Communist Party,” one person familiar with the Chinese leadership’s thinking said.

In response to a request for comment, Mr. Pottinger said that such an interpretation was “a profound admission that the Communist Party knows it has failed to deliver citizen-centric governance, and it confirms what everyone already suspected: What Beijing fears above all is its own people.”

At the same time, increased support from the U.S. for Taiwan, a democratically self-ruled island that Beijing views as a part of China and has vowed to put under its control, prompted Chinese leaders to debate the prospect that the U.S. might be willing to use nuclear weapons in a conflict over the island, according to the people close to the leadership...

 

Friday, April 08, 2022

2 people murdered in terrorist attack on Tel Aviv's Dizengoff Street

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid's disastrous government has led to more tragedy on Dizengoff Street, a commercial neighborhood:
Two people were killed and eight people were wounded - some seriously - in what appeared to be a terrorist shooting attack in the center of Tel Aviv on Thursday night. The attack took place in multiple locations on Dizengoff Street, a popular scene filled with restaurants and bars in the main Israeli city.

The gunman was feared to still be on the loose and large security forces - police and IDF soldiers - were running down the main Tel Aviv boulevard in search of the attacker. Police are asking the public to stay at home and get off the streets until the gunman is caught.

At least four of the wounded were said to be in critical or serious condition, according to Sourasky Medical Center. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Defense Minister Benny Gantz were making their way to the Kirya Military headquarters in Tel Aviv and receiving regular updates about the attack.
Gantz is clearly also to blame for failing on his part to prevent this from an army perspective. Now, they've led to yet more horrific disaster as a result of this mess.

Update: another terrorist who'd been part of this latest attack was found and killed:
Israel was on high alert after a Palestinian terrorist killed two people and injured several other on a busy street in central Tel Aviv on Thursday night. The terrorist was killed in an exchange of fire with Israeli forces several kilometers away in Jaffa on early on Friday morning.

Dizengoff Terrorist identified

Identified as 28-year-old Ra’ad Fathi Hazem from the Jenin refugee camp, he was located hiding near a mosque in Jaffa by two Shin Bet officers who identified a suspicious figure who was similar to the suspect. According to reports, Zaydan pulled out his gun and fired 10 bullets toward the officers who returned fire and killed him.

Walla! Reported that it's believed that Hazem knew the area and that he hoped to hide in the mosque during the first Friday prayers of Ramadan.

The Shin Bet said that he had no known organizational affiliation, previous arrests or security background. Palestinian reports said that his father was a senior officer with the Palestinian Authority security forces but retired about a decade ago. His uncle praised the attack on Facebook, saying that he had joined his uncles who were affiliated with Fatah and were killed in clashes with security forces.

His father was later filmed outside his house telling a crowd that had gathered that “You will see the victory soon… God, liberate the Al-Aqsa Mosque from the occupiers.”

The agency said that Hazem had entered Israel illegally and that it is being investigated if he had received any support.
Some could say that this particular jihadist acted as a lone wolf attacker, yet predictably, they carefully avoid any deeper discussion of Islamofascism and its role in this incident. What it does reveal is the minds of the attackers.

Update 2: Nadav Shragai makes a valid point on how lone wolves are part of a murderous ideology.

Update 3: Robert Spencer points out how British news sources like the UK Guardian and Reuters have villified Israel in all this.