Thursday, September 01, 2011



We discussed the reasons last month why gold would go to $2,000 an ounce by the end of August. That did not happen, and it fell well short of that level, closing at roughly $1,830 an ounce. Still, gold had a spectacular month, gaining 12% during August, thanks in part to worries over the S&P downgrade of U.S. debt, Eurozone problems and concerns over slowing growth around the world.

None of those problems have gone away, they have just been pushed out a few weeks...

none of those problems were resolved (S&P did downgrade U.S. debt, so I guess this problem was solved, albeit negatively) and we have more concerns coming in September, the logical move is higher. We are also starting to move into the holiday buying season, which tends to push prices higher. In India, gold is considered a big gift, and gold prices generally rise as we get towards the end of the year.

There is still a crisis of confidence around the world, although it has calmed down somewhat. There is also concern that as the third quarter comes to a close, we will see earnings reports for a lot of companies be revised down, and money has to go somewhere.

We saw what happened during August when there was a crisis of confidence; money all piles into one place-- precious metals, particularly gold. Gold jumped 12% during the month. If the Fed does decide to enact "QE3" in September, we could see $2,000 an ounce by the meeting, or perhaps slightly after. The U.S. dollar will continue to nosedive, and precious metals will be the beneficiaries... the situation does not look any better than it did just a few short weeks ago.

When you have a crisis of confidence, everyone heads for the exit. The only door that is open? Gold. $2,000 an ounce is closer than you think. Wake me up when September ends.


China central banker warns global economic risks increasing

The global economy faces risks from both slowed growth and persistent inflationary pressure, which is flowing from emerging to advanced economies, Ma Delun, a vice-governor at China's central bank, said in comments reported on Friday.

Ma told a financial forum in far western China on Thursday that slowed growth in the United States, Europe's debt problems, and Japan's poor economic performance were adding to those global risks, the China News Service reported.

Gold $2000, and Dow 9000. Sigh.

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