POLLS ACTUALLY SHOW WHY OBAMA WILL LOSE AND MCCAIN WILL WIN

KERRY GOT 89% OF THE DEMS AND LOST:

SOCIAL GROUPS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE, 2004
	Size	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Party
Democratic	37%	11%	89%	0%
Independent	26%	48%	49%	1%
Republican	37%	93%	6%	0%

POLLS SHOW THAT OBAMA IS NOT DOING AS WELL AS KERRY WITH DEMOCRATS:

IBD/TIPP:

OBAMA AMONG DEMOCRATS: 85%

MCCAIN IS POLLING AT 8%, BUT UNDECIDEDS - WHO ARE BREAKING FOR MCCAIN - ARE STILL A WHOPPING 7%.

• DEMOCRATS WHO HAVEN'T YET DECIDED THEY'RE GOING TO VOTE OBAMA, ARE - IMHO - NOT GOING TO VOTE OBAMA;

• THEREFORE, MCCAIN SHOULD PICK UP ABOUT 75% OF THESE AND END UP WITH 14% (WITH 1% VOTING FOR SOMEONE ELSE OR ABSTAINING).

• THIS WILL BE THE MARGIN OF VICTORY FOR MCCAIN.

IT MAKES PERFECT SENSE: MCCAIN IS THE TRUE CENTRIST AND THE TRUE POST-PARTISAN/BI-PARTISAN CANDIDATE.

VOTE ACCORDINGLY.