HAS LEGALIZED ABORTION REDUCED U.S. CRIME?

This has long been a debate between John Lott and Steven Levitt. Following is a short extract from John Lott's new book "Freedomnomics". I have been following the argument since Levitt first put it forward. I think Lott has some good points but I find it hard to get past the point that anything which limits the black population (which free abortion certainly does) must also limit crime -- given the undisputedly very high rate of criminality among blacks. Lott seems to be arguing that blacks brought up in two-parent families would be less prone to crime. But that is probably true only to a small degree. As far as I know ALL black populations everywhere in the world have hugely high crime-rates by white standards

So the opposing arguments are clear-one stresses that abortion eliminates "unwanted" children, while the other emphasizes that abortion increases out-of-wedlock births. Both effects, conceivably, could be occurring at the same time. The question is: which one has the bigger impact on crime?

This must be answered empirically. Unfortunately for advocates of the "abortion decreases crime" theory, Donahue and Levitt's data were undermined by methodological flaws. As The Economist magazine noted in an article entitled "Oops-onomics," "Donohue and Levitt did not run the test that they thought they had." Work by two economists at the Boston Federal Reserve, Christopher Foote and Christopher Goetz, found that when the tests were run correctly, they indicated that abortion actually increases violent crime. I co-authored a study with John Whitley that found a similar connection between abortion and murder-namely, that legalizing abortion raised the murder rate, on average, by about 7 percent.

We find particularly troublesome problems with the "abortion decreases crime" theory when we analyze the population according to age group. Suppose that liberalizing abortion in the early 1970s can indeed explain up to 80 percent of the drop in murder during the 1990s, as Donohue and Levitt claim. Then the impact of deregulating abortion, undoubtedly, would first reduce criminality among age groups born after the abortion law was changed, when the "unwanted," crime-prone elements of these groups began to be weeded out through abortion. Yet, looking at the declining murder rate during the 1990s, Whitley and I found that this is not the case at all. Instead, the rate of committing murder began falling first among an older generation-those twenty-six and older-who were born before the Roe v. Wade decision.39 It was only later that criminality among those born after Roe began to decline as well.

This pattern is more consistent with the theory that legalizing abortion led to a rise in crime. In fact, those born in the four years after Roe were much more likely to commit murder than those born in the four years prior to Roe. This was especially the case when they were in their teens-in other words, in their "criminal prime."

And that's not all. The "abortion decreases crime" argument encounters further inconsistencies when we compare U.S. crime and abortion trends to those in Canada. While crime rates in both the United States and Canada began declining at the same time, Canada liberalized its abortion laws much later than the U.S. did. Although the province of Quebec effectively legalized abortion in late 1976, it wasn't until 1988, in a case originating in Ontario, that the Canadian Supreme Court struck down limits on abortion nationwide. If the legalization of abortion in the U.S. caused crime to begin dropping eighteen years later, why did the crime rate begin falling just three years after the comparable legal change in Canada?

In sum, even if one effect of abortion were to lower crime by culling out "unwanted" children-a conclusion derived from flawed statistics- the effect is greatly outweighed by the rise in crime that abortion causes by increasing out-of-wedlock births. It should be noted that African Americans are disproportionately harmed by the crime stemming from legalized abortion. That population has seen the biggest increases in abortion, premarital sex, and out-of-wedlock birth rates, resulting in more African Americans being raised by single parents and eventually committing crimes, mostly against other African Americans.

Thus, "legalized" abortion actually served to increase crime since the 1970s. However this effect--both among African Americans and the population at large-was more than offset by other factors that caused the massive drop in crime of the 1990s

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