Friday, October 06, 2006


I take these threats seriously, (main article HERE). As the Captain points out,
it's easy to dismiss this as North Korean fantasy, but North Koreans do not get to pen articles for the Asia Times without some sort of official approval. The author's long connection to the regime means that the opinions expressed in this hallucinatory screed definitely reflects the positions of management. Kim Jong-Il wants to spread the perception that he considers himself at war with the US -- and he thinks he will win it.
And the attack does NOT have to come via NOKO missiles. Maybe NOKO has given nuclear bomb materiel to terrorists who have already infiltrated the USA and are assembling their bomb(s) right here, right now? I'm suspicious of this because we KNOW that NOKO and Iran have ties, (and that Iran has ties to jihadoterrorists who have attacked the USA and killed hundreds of US citizens: HIZBALLAH), and because of a threat made by Saddam to US Ambasador Glapsie in 1990 - beofre the Gulf War:
SADDAM: "If you use pressure, we will deploy pressure and force. We know that you can harm us although we do not threaten you. But we too can harm you. Everyone can cause harm according to their ability and their size. We cannot come all the way to you in the United States, but individual Arabs may reach you."
This TYPE of threat might just be carried out - using nukes - delivered by jihadoterrorists posing as students, or by NOKO agents posing as South Koreans, living in the USA. Unfortunately for us, this type of threat is immune from a preemptive a strike - and therefore it would function as a NOKO version of the Trident sub: able to survive a first strike and deliver a nuclear counter-attack... no matter what. And - like Iran's secret nuke program - this strategy may very well have been in the making for the last 20 years. I fear that we shall see if this threat is real in the near future - unfortunately.



Pastorius said...

Well, then, since the only way we can see if it is real is if it really happens, then that means you believe we will soon be hit by nukes.

Reliapundit said...

actually i think the odds are 1 in 5. which is low, but not comfortably so.

my main point is that we need to be very vigilant and not depend solely on our as yet still somewhat limited NMD system. we need to be ferreting out potential terrorists here who might be connected to noko and hizb and nukes near cities.

OBloodyHell said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
OBloodyHell said...

Not to naysay the danger, but it's far more likely for them to slip one onto a container ship and set it off in port than to actually bring it in and assemble it here. It can be "stuck" in customs and still be set off and do plenty of damage, while actually smuggling the parts in requires precision skills in checking post-assembly as well as a variety of natural mechanical aptitude not usually connected to jihadi. People who are actually good at building things (or destroying them!) are not usually apt to be either suicidal or promote wanton destruction.

Smuggling it in in parts also substantially increases the risk of being noticed and/or caught in the process. Why bother to add these risks if it can be set off in the ports of NYC, Miami, LA, or Chicago? The damage to international trade alone would be immense, boy directly by the damage to a major port but indirectly by the automatic dampener it would apply to the speed of transactions.

Reliapundit said...

they've had YEARS to plan/do this.
they even have plenty of skilled people themselves and could've also been training many iranians/hizball-ites.
the parts could have been smuggled into the USA in many shipments over many years over land from mexico.
the actual builders might believe they will be allowed to escapre before the attack.
several small bombs, the size of fat boy, detonated near large cities would be likeliest scenario.

still, i do not think this is the MOST LIKELY way NOKO will attack. It is most likely they will try to annihilate Seoul. And Tokyo.