Tuesday, September 05, 2006


... a NATO spokesman, Major Quentin Innesm said allied forces are closing in on Taleban guerrillas, pushing them into what he called "a bit of a trap."
U.S. artillery and airstrikes killed between 50 and 60 suspected Taliban militants on Tuesday, the fourth day of a NATO-led offensive in southern Afghanistan, a NATO spokesman said. ... NATO has already reported more than 200 Taliban killed in the operation. ... He said there had been no NATO or Afghan troop casualties.
The leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan will attempt today to bury their differences and agree a joint strategy to combat Islamic militants operating on both sides of their border.

As Nato forces fought an estimated 700 Taleban rebels in southern Afghanistan, President Musharraf prepared to make his first visit to Kabul for nearly two years, where he hopes to repair relations with President Karzai.

“We hope it will be a major, positive step for relations between the two countries and for co-operation in fighting terrorism,” a spokesman for the Afghan Foreign Ministry said. Yesterday Pakistan took a big step towards ending the fighting in the lawless Waziristan region when it signed a peace deal with tribal leaders. The agreement commits local militants to halt attacks on both sides of the border.

In return Pakistan will reduce its military presence and compensate tribesmen whose relatives have been killed or whose properties have been damaged. A key provision of the deal is that tribesmen will expel foreign fighters from the area. The region is believed to be a haven for al-Qaeda fighters and members of the former Taleban regime in Afghanistan. Without a base in Pakistan their operations could be seriously disrupted.
The timing of the Paki/Waziri deal and the Paki-Afghani deal and the very high death rates for the Taliban (in the current NATO operation), and the understated quote from the NATO spokesman make me feel that Osama has finally been cornered.

  • The NATO op - which they define as a trap - is a very large op and it's coming up against a very determined and very large contingent of Taliban. Perhaps they are defending Osama and or Zawahiri.
  • The Pakistan deal with the jirga/tribes of Waziristan has been portayed by many as a bad deal for us, but perhaps it isn't. If the tribes won't give safe haven to alQ then alQ must go to Afghanistan where NATO is waiting. If the tribes do not expel alQ then the deal is broken. In which case there is NO LOSS for us.
  • Musharraf is meeting with Karzai - this rapprochement is essential and good for our side; it would not occur if Karzai thought Pakistan was making a destabilizing deal with the Waziri tribes.
  • And don't forget that this big NATO action comes on the heels of numerous alQ biggies being taken down in the last 6 weeks. Which probably means that very good intel was acquired and is being exploited everywhere - even Pakistan and Waziristan and Afghanistan.
That's why I say, STAY TUNED.


Pastorius said...

I feel like I'm a bit thick today. I don't see the connections you are seeing here. Could you spell it out for me?

Reliapundit said...

1 - NATO is undertaking a very large op against a very determined and very large contingent of Taliban. they are defending, perhaps, osama. i feel this because of the size of the op, and the number of enemy dead.

2 - NATO defines this op as a trap.

3 - pakistan has made a deal with the jirga/tribes of waziristan that they will go back to barracks if the tribes expel (read turnover) foreign fighters (read al Q). many have portayed this as a bad deal for the GWOT but perhaos it is not. if the tribes won't give safe haven to alQ then alQ must go to afghanistan where NAT is waiting. if the tribes do not expel alQ then the deal is broken. NO LOSS FOR us.

4 - mushie is meeting with karzai - this rapprochement is essential and good for our side.

5 - this big NATO action comes on the heels of numerous alQ biggies being taken down in the last 6 weeks. which means intel acq has been enhanced.

6 - this is one of the largest anti-taliban actions/ops in a LONG time. i feel it's not just to kill a few taliban, but to get zawahiri or binladen.

LOOKIT: these may be coincidences. i feel they are not.

i felt the idf did a lot better vs hizb than the MSM did. that op went well (niot perfectly, but well) - tho it might have gone better if allowed to go to its conclusion. it and the gaza evac were done - IN PART - to prepare for a preemptive attack against iran's nuke program.

getting zawahiri and binladen will help in this regard too. it might be a critical preconditon. not absolutyely necessary, but EXTREMELY advisable.

after all: the post-preemptive attack world is gonna be intense - for a while.

okay-okay-okay: getting binladen has always been important. but as the clock countsdown toward an iranian nuke, it becomes even more critical. hence - perhaps - this op, amd the hzb b war, and the intense baghdad ops.

each of these ops might have occured earlier if iraq had only selected a unity govt sooner.

we need a relatively stable isrsael and iraq and pakistan and afghanistan before we attack iran. and we'd really prefer it if all the alQ biggies were stiff.


Pastorius said...

According to this article, Pakistan says they will give a pass to Bin Laden if he lives a "peaceful life." You know what that means in Islam-talk.


Osama bin Laden, America's most wanted man, will not face capture in Pakistan if he agrees to lead a "peaceful life," Pakistani officials tell ABC News.

The surprising announcement comes as Pakistani army officials announced they were pulling their troops out of the North Waziristan region as part of a "peace deal" with the Taliban.

If he is in Pakistan, bin Laden "would not be taken into custody," Major General Shaukat Sultan Khan told ABC News in a telephone interview, "as long as one is being like a peaceful citizen."

Bin Laden is believed to be hiding somewhere in the tribal areas of Pakistan, near the Afghanistan border, but U.S. officials say his precise location is unknown.

In addition to the pullout of Pakistani troops, the "peace agreement" between Pakistan and the Taliban also provides for the Pakistani army to return captured Taliban weapons and prisoners.

"What this means is that the Taliban and al Qaeda leadership have effectively carved out a sanctuary inside Pakistan," said ABC News consultant Richard Clarke, the former White House counter-terrorism director.

The agreement was signed on the same day President Bush said the United States was working with its allies "to deny terrorists the enclaves they seek to establish in ungoverned areas across the world."

The Pakistani Army had gone into Waziristan, under heavy pressure from the United States, but faced a series of humiliating defeats at the hands of the Taliban and al Qaeda fighters.

"They're throwing the towel," said Alexis Debat, who is a Senior Fellow at the Nixon Center and an ABC News consultant. "They're giving al Qaeda and the Taliban a blank check and saying essentially make yourselves at home in the tribal areas," Debat said.

Pastorius said...

I don't know how Pakistan could make such a decision. Oh wait, they have nukes. What are we gonna do about it, huh?

Sheesh. We had better not allow that mofo Ahmadinejad to get nukes, or he will have us over a barrel too.

Pastorius said...

By the way, I want to be clear. I didn't try to set you up here. I read your article, and wondered about it and left the comment. And then, I went over to Drudge and he had posted the article from ABC News.

One of my thoughts on this is that ABC's article about the Pakistan agreement with Bin Laden is possibly connected to Musharaff deciding to go visit Al Qaeda.

I don't really understand how they would be connected, but clearly there is a hell of a lot of stuff happening in that part of the world all of the sudden.

Hey Reliapundit, do you smoke cigars? What type? Any recommendations?

Reliapundit said...

yeah - not lately, tho': my fav are these little 20 minute handrolled jobbers. forget the best make - will get back to you. it's rich like a domincan churchill but you dont have to spend the whole night with her.


upman churchill. macanudo. i've had some great torpitos too. havta get back to you.



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The Gran Reserva line is the flagship of the brand coming in a variety of sizes and spanning several popular wrappers. The cedar wrapped line combines a smooth Connecticut wrapper over a Dominican filler and binder making it a mild masterpiece. The Cameroon sizes take advantage of a Central African wrapper that builds a medium body over a Dominican binder and filler. This wrapper has a tangy more flavorful aroma on the palate. In addition to the natural and Cameroon wrappers, Fuente makes their popular cigars in a sweet and dark maduro wrapper that that has a more robust flavor.

btw: NEVER EVER give credence to an MSM anaysis of gwot news. they only spin it in ways to hurt bush/israel.

Joe Yangtree said...

Your theory flies in the face of the intelligence's theories of Bin Laden's locations and precautions. It's believed that he's in Pakistan, nowhere close to Kandahar, and with a very few bodyguards, not hundreds of men that would draw undue attention. This would be great news, if true, but it seems you're just engaging in wishful speculation without meaning.

Pastorius said...

Hey, you ought to start a Stogie Talk with Reliapundit section on your blog.

Anyway, I don't usually have time for the bigger smokes either. I've been smoking the little Macanudo's lately. I love 'em.

I also love Avo's, CAO's, Punch Cohiba, and Romeo y Julietta.

Never in maduro. I don't have a taste for it.

I'll try the Arturo Fuente. Thanks for the tip.

Reliapundit said...

you're welcome. btw: all the stogies u mention are fine. and keep trying maduro wrapper. it an acquired taste.

Pastorius said...

Hey, I've got a question for you. I may put together a Infidel Bloggers Alliance Radio Show. If I do, it is going to be mostly preproduced, meaning not live. However, I have an idea for a segment with you. Would you be interested. We'd have to do it live on air. You don't have to divulge any personal info. You would just call in and talk with me. Pamela and i were chatting about this idea already, so she may have already brought it up to you.

What do you think?

Reliapundit said...

maybe. remember: i am not an expert on anything - except what i think.

Pastorius said...

Are you into comedy? I don't mean are you a comedian? I mean, could you get into just arguing with some lefties for the comedy of it?

Because what I'm thinking is it would be fun to do a Q&A with Reliapundit segment, where they call in and you go off on them.

We could also smoke stogies and talk about them a bit.

I'm picturing trying to do segments of the show almost as if it's guys in a pub. Know what I mean?

Just fucking going off on one another.

Pastorius said...

Oh, and another thing, when you call in, it would not be to my number, so no personal information would be divulged at all.

And besides, when you call a person, you can call with a AT&T Calling Card which sends the calls through on numbers in Denver and Atlanta, so that's a way to hide your identity also.

I do that shit all the time.

I think that is a concern of yours also.

Reliapundit said...

my only concern: i like to eat once a day. and sleep somehwere i call home.

i live and work among lefties and must do biz/get boz with/from them and i will be ostracized/not get biz if they find out i am not a commie dove - so to speak.

Reliapundit said...

i don't really want to go out of my way to talk to lefties if they aren't rational.

Pastorius said...

Ok, I understand. I'll have to find a plan B.