Friday, July 14, 2006


Hezbollah has between 10,000 and 12,000 rockets of varying ranges and types, [IDF] General Nehushtan said, most of them provided by Syria and Iran.
If Hizb'allah uses about 300 a day and loses about 300 a day (to IDF strikes on weapons depots) - and since they cannot now be resupplied - then that means that Hizb'allah will run out of rockets and missiles in about 20 days AT THE CURRENT PACE. I feel that the pace of the IDF's counter-attacks will quicken, accelerating the destruction of these weapons, and that the IDF will force the leadership of Hizb'allah to flee to Syria and Iran - in two weeks, effectively ending their reign of terror over southern Lebanon, effectively LIBERATING SOUTHERN LEBANON FROM SYRIA AND IRAN.

This will effectively mean that UNSCR#1559 will have been enforced by Israel - a GREAT and LONG OVERDUE event:
Hours earlier, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan that Israel would not end its military operation in Lebanon until the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1559, which calls for disarming Hezbollah and the deployment of the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon.
This victory by Israel will be enjoyed by most of the Arab nations in the region - all except Syria and Yemen.


Pastorius said...

I believe you are correct about this.

The wild card is whether Iran will decide anything Israel chooses to do is deserving of retaliation from Iran.

I think we are getting close to the time when they will choose to hit Israel. In fact, I have to wonder if that's what this escalation is about.

What do you think?

Reliapundit said...

iran and syria think they can boig down israel like they have the usa in iraq.

but israel is different.

isrsel will wipe the enemy out from so/ leb. and chase them into syria.

and they will kill all the hamas leadership who saty in gaza and WB.

iunilke the usa troops in iraq, the israelis have nowhere to go.

they MIUST stay and fight, and they MUST win.

the jihadiostooges donl;t have to win - 'cause if they die they think they win.

insane idjits.

anyhow, iran can unilateraly try to hit israel ANYTIME, but they will get no excuse for it from israel; israel won't invade syria.

they won't whack hizballah/hamas chiefs there either.

the real fight is for southern leb.

2 weeks: it belongs to the lebanese ahgain, and not syria or iran.

then we still have toi deal with iran's nukes and assad.

time is on our side with assad. but not with iran's nukes.


i think we will get some decent anti-regime sanctions out of the unsc.

and then.... dunno, yet.

iran can probably get off a few thosuand missiles - like kimjong il could against seoul - and damage/kill a lot of iraqis and us troops and israelis if and when they want to commit national suicide.

i expect this doesn't have to happen until january 10th 2009.

but iran may think that the nivember elections hobble/handcuff bush/the gop and they may try something around between 9/11-10/11/06.

but i do think that in the meantime israel will expel hizballah and kill manyu hamas lieaders and recover their soldiers in 2 weeks.

just my feeling. but hey: i predicted the week of the end of the kosovo war in the week that war started. how!? these things tend to play out based on logistics/materiel/options.

those with more of those three WIN.

the pace with which the stronger destroys those three of the enemy determines how soon vicory is achieved.

this takes resolutness - a willingness to use all necessary force.

the idf has this. israel has this.

the enemy cannot be resupplied. and their leaders are all COWARDS WHO SEND TEENAGERS TO COMMIT SUCIDE ON THEIR BEHALF.

leaders like this always lose. and pretty quickly, too.


i am not sure the soldiers will be recovered alive.

Reliapundit said...

there's an added reason hizballah can be defeated: they like to pose as a poltical party, which measn they have many assets out in the open - whichare easily destroyed.

they will ne neutered. 2 weeks.

thisd operation wioll be more violent than op def shield was. and with a quicker pace.

Reliapundit said...

lookit pasto -

hizb has kidnapped before, andf they prob expected same old response: an exchange.

they got more than they bargained for.

WHY" cause shaorn vacated gaza and made it judenrein.

hizb and hamas misjudged that it was weakness and not a line in the sand.

so now hizb and hamas are reeling. and iran can't resuppply them; it's physically imp.

but idf will not fight a slow war of attrition as long as hizb and hamas have ricets which can kill israelis.

so the iodf will smack the hammer down hard and fast.

squashing the enemy.

on or b4 7/27: nasrallah exiled or dead and his comrades in exile.
on ot b4 7/27: abbas desolves hamas govt and calld for new elections.

Pastorius said...

So, then Olmert is, in your opinion, following in Sharon's strategy of making the Palestinians responsible for the behavior of their government by giving them what is a de facto state; Gaza.

I always thought this was the strategy, and it does seem as if it is playing out that way.

BTW, you give Ahmadinejad and Co. credit for having a lot more political smarts than I do. Maybe you're right. They seem like idiots to me, but what do I know?

Reliapundit said...

exiting gaza was a militarily and diplomatically shrewd move: it allows assets to be deployed more effectively (for all out war) and it neutralizes anti-Zionist attacks giving the military a freer hand.

iran and syria and their stooges/proxies are the real enemies at this point. not so called gazans.

we are not battling nationalists but islamisys as kristol notes and as hitchens (for too long a dupe/apologist for the palis) will soon admit.

Pastorius said...

Hey, there's another prediction. You need to brag about that one when it comes true. The full conversion of Hitchens has been a slow train coming.