Sunday, September 25, 2005



Perhaps I should rephrase the question: has another Arab-Israeli War just begun? Here's why I ask:

BBC [I have taken the liberty to "rearrange" the sequence of sentences in the BBC report so that it makes sense; all the sentences are verbatim.]:

... after more than 21 rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip, injuring five Israelis in Sderot, Israeli planes have carried out an air strike on the northern Gaza Strip - the first such raid since its military withdrawal earlier this month. Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz had WARNED the Arabs that Israel would repond firmly to any attacks coming from Gaza. Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for firing 10 home-made rockets into Israel on Friday, following the killing of three of its leaders by Israeli troops in Tulkarm. Israel said the militants were killed after opening fire on troops who were trying to arrest them.

On Friday evening an explosion at a rally held by the Palestinian militants of Hamas left 15 dead. The ruling Palestinian Fatah faction said it held Hamas responsible for the explosion at Friday's rally, when a truck carrying gunmen and home-made weapons blew up.

The Israeli military said its air strike was aimed at a Hamas weapons warehouse in the Jabaliya refugee camp, where Friday's rally was held. Two more missiles were fired at targets in Gaza City.

IMHO: this is either the opening round of the next BIG ARAB-ISRAELI WAR, or the beginning of the Gazan Civil War, (if Abbas tries to assert his legitimate control over Gaza - in which case he will get help from the USA and Israel - and he will win).

To become a big Arab-Israeli War a few other things would have to happen:

(1) Assad would have to try to take advantage of stepped up hostilities between Gaza and Israel, and use THAT as a pretext to attack Israel in a cynical attempt to strengthen his precarious hold over Syria and perhaps to regain control over Lebanon. Assad would claim to be coming to the aid of the Gazans.
(2) Hiz b'Allah would have to step up its attacks against Israel from southern Lebanon into a full-fledged offensive. They'd use Gaza and the Shebaa Farms as a pretext (and also they're newly re-motivated by the belief that the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza was FORCED by Hamas and terror).
(3) Zarqawi would merel yhave to step up attacks against King Abdullah II of Jordan to create a third front in the ARab-Isrzaeli War, (and a fourth in the overall GWOT - if you include Gaza, Shebaa farms, and the Sunni Traingle; it's the "FIFTH FRONT" if you include eastern Afghanistan; sixth if you inlcude the Moro islands; seventh if you include Kashmir - AND SO ON; IOW: JIHAD IS A GLOBAL WAR).

Right now, the odds of another Arab-Israeli War are as least as good as the odds of a Gazan Civil War. The odds that peace will break out are quite bad.

Neither a Arab-Israeli War or a Gazan Civil War is a rational response to the very good possibilites which have recently opened up (because of Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon and Egypt's gradual democratization, and Libya's defanging, and Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon), but the region - outside of Israel (and sometimes Egypt and Jordan) is NOT known for its reasonableness. Which is the chief reason why I feel that an Arab-Israeli War is a bit more likely: Assad (whose military is NO MATCH for the IDF) is probaby desperate enough to risk everything, at this point - I mean he's almost got nothing to lose.(And the closer we get to 10/25 - when the UN report on the assassination of Hariri is due - and it is likely to directly implicate Assad - the greater the likelihood Assad will do something desperate.) And HAMAS and Hiz b'Allah and Zarqawi are wacky jihadofascists who CANNOT be relied upon to do ANYTHING rational - so we must EXPECT them to WANT an all out war against Israel regardless of the risks. ON TOP OF THIS: the remnants of Arafat's legions of jihadoterrorists in the West Bank may try to start Intifada #3 (after all, Intifada #2 began soon after Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon).

UPDATE: AP : "Israel Vows 'Crushing' Response to Attacks"

Israel ordered ground forces to the Gaza border Saturday and threatened a "crushing" response after Israeli towns were hit by the first major Hamas rocket barrage from the coastal territory since Israel's pullout two weeks earlier. Israel also resumed airstrikes against Hamas targets, hitting several suspected weapons workshops, and imposed a blanket closure that bars all Palestinians from its territory. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon called his Security Cabinet for a meeting later Saturday to approve the military's response..."


UPDATE #2: AFP: "Hamas Says Strike at “Israel’s Heart” Possible" - Gaza. Hamas spokesman Mushir al-Masri said it was possible that the group might strike “at the heart of Israel” in retaliation for the Israeli air strikes today, AFP reported. “It’s a very dangerous escalation of tension on the part of the enemy”, al-Masri said and added that the Israeli attacks “will not stop the resistance”, which includes even a strike “at the heart of the Zionist enemy”.

UPDATE #5: IDF SEALS BOTH GAZA AND WEST BANK... this is a prerequisite for military operations in both territories, and of course to prevent any infiltrations of jihadomaniacal genocidal terrorists from the territories into Israel.

Therefore, I expect a major terrorist attack by the jihadists against a settlement in the West bank...

UPDATE #6: BBC: Saturday/ Sunday: Israel launches more overnight air strikes and arrests more than 200 Palestinians in West Bank -- The Israeli army said those arrested in the West Bank included activists from both Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Hamas said Hassan Yousef, its leader in the West Bank, was among them.

UPDATE #7: GOOGLE NEWS - [they're related stories]:
Israel Kills Militant Chief in Offensive: Guardian Unlimited, UK - 1 hour ago. By LARA SUKHTIAN. GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP) - Israel pressed forward with a broad offensive against Islamic militants on Sunday, killing ...
Hamas calls halt to attacks: Japan Today, Japan - 54 minutes ago. GAZA CITY — The Palestinian militant group Hamas on Sunday announced a halt to Gaza-based attacks on Israel, even as two Islamic Jihad militants were killed ...
Er um... ISRAEL whacks THE EVIL-DOERS AND THEY CAVE - (calling an end to their attacks)! FUNNY HOW THAT WORKS! I think we need more of that! EVERYWHERE! (More HERE and HERE.)


Paul Hooson said...

At some point I know that the frightening prophecy of Ezekiel 37-39, in which little Israel is locked into a serious war will come. Iran's nuclear program is little more than a cover for a nuclear weapons program. Just last month, a new solid rocket motor was tested that will propel the Shahab-3 missiles(based on the North Korean NoDong missile) 2,000 kilometers, farther than the previous 1,300 kilometers.

And the fatally flawed decision to give up more land for peace is unworkable with a powerful Hamas organization bent on total destruction of Israel and a military victory.

Wih the backing of Iran's army with millions of troops, Israel will no doubt face the war from Ezekiel 37-39 in our lifetimes. Israel deserves our prayers.

Kyle said...

Paul, I wouldn't put too much into that, The predictions of the end times have been going on since just after the fall of the Roman Empire, and if you read the literature, they all had good, valid reasons to belive theirs was the end time.
Apocolyptic literature has been going into overdrive in the western nations since at least the 1930's and every writer always prommised that we only had about ten years at the most. But here we are in 2005 and things are really much better for most of the inhabitants of earth than they ever have been.
As for Israel, I think that HAMAS will begin to loose support even as AlQueda has. Because they are targeting their fellow palistinians now that Isreal is harder to get at.
Iran, will not use Nuclear weapons for the same reason that no one else has in over half a century. Yes they may be run by religious fanatics, but when was the last time you saw any of the mullahs leading a suicide bombing?
They arent that crazy or zealous. They just use religion to stay in power.

Anonymous said...

well I guess we have to choose between doomsayers and optimists! or just stay tuned to the real world - and pray for the best