Saturday, September 10, 2005


YAHOO/AP - (hat tip CUANAS): "An hour after we leave the field, there will be a strategic change ... in the nature of our response to even an attempt at terror," Maj. Gen. Yisrael Ziv, the military's chief of operations, told Israel Radio. "We shall have a far more extreme reaction to any attempt."

The IDF can be more lethal and destructive in their counter-attacks now, because Israel no longer occupies Gaza.

[PROGNOSTICATIONS/GAMING/CONJECTURE: I expect this warning to go unheard by either HAMAS or the (either) inneffectual or two-faced Abbas. And, I expect this to occur while the UN general Assembly is in session between 9/14-16 - because the Palestinians (correctly) perceive the UNGA as their ally because they know that the world body (like the Arabs themselves) will always see the Palestinians as the Palestinians see themselves: as victims -- even if they are the ones intitiating attacks.

The next true test will come when Egypt - fresh off of (barely) democratic elections must decide wheter to enforce their border with Gaza, or allow HAMAS to resupply through Egypt. This will be another moment of truth for Mubarak. I would wager he will allow the border to be a sieve - just like Assad does with Syria's border with Iraq.

The next few moves on the board are also predictable: the UN - and the EU - will condemn Israel; Bush and Sharon will be further isolated as they were during the Arafat "freeze-out" period, and Israel will continue to finish the anti-terror fence - unilaterally making themselves safer and unilaterally establishing a border.

What will break this cycle of violence? The (induced) collapse of the Assad regime. This will be sort of a "discovered check" against the Jihadists: they will lose a safe-haven, and it will further isolate Iran - a benefit on all fronts. The collapse of Assad will be brought about by continued attacks along his border and within his borders by infiltarted agents and Syrian Kurds. The mayhem and chaos which will result from Assad's fall will benefit Iraq, and Israel - as HAMAS and Hiz b'Allah and Zarqawi lose a major supplier. The USA will then pressure Israel to make a quick deal with the new democratic regime in Syria, so then they can solidfy their own border with Syria and help the new Syrian regime gain some domestic stability.

ANYWAY, it all begins with the next major HAMAS attack against Israel. Then... we shall see. SO, STAY TUNED...]


Pastorius said...

For a logical, analytical sort, you sure are a positive guy.

I hope things turn out the way you say.

Reliapundit said...

sure: i am positive/upbeat. we have the wiiing values and more courage and better weapons.

remember - i think Iraq is going well BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS.

and that it will turn out well, too. after we split.

i have faith in God and in human beings: innately - as we are endowed by our Creator - we ALL have the same rights and wishes.

it's the twisted sociopathic ideologies which eff things up.

when we subtract the "twistedness" away from areas where it's too concentrated, then people will begin to enjoy their innate desire for freedom. and create the propserity which only freedom produces.

this subraction is tough - and it's tougher ijn some places than in others.

and it's toughwhen you have a bunch of euroweenie leftists and europhile leftists snipping at your ankles all the time.

and it's tough because they control the MSM and the academy.

but WE'RE taking care of that front!

chin up!

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