DEDICATED TO EXPOSING DISINFORMATION AND PROPAGANDA AND TO PROMOTING UNIVERSAL HUMAN RIGHTS - WITH SHARP ANALYSIS AND BLUNT COMMENTARY. NO ADS. NO TIP-JAR. JUST THE TRUTH.
DEDICATED TO EXPOSING DISINFORMATION AND PROPAGANDA AND TO PROMOTING UNIVERSAL HUMAN RIGHTS - WITH SHARP ANALYSIS AND BLUNT COMMENTARY. NO ADS. NO TIP-JAR. JUST THE TRUTH.
12 comments:
Sorry...
The debasement of the currency has an impact. But, just like 2008, the primary reason -- by far -- for rising gasoline prices is the simple fact that the global demand for oil has exceeded the global supply of oil for each of the last 8 quarters:
http://sbvor.blogspot.com/2012/03/blaming-speculators-for-oil-prices-is.html
SORRY.
CHINA'S ECONOMY IS REALLY IN FREE FALL AND THEY ARE USING LESS ENERGY EVERY MONTH FOR MONTHS.
See Table 1 on page 53 of the following document and confirm my assertion that "the global demand for oil has exceeded the global supply of oil for each of the last 8 quarters"
http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/10feb12full.pdf
THX 4 THE LINK.
READ IT.
ITS BULLSHIT.
THE TABLE SHOWS OECD DOWN FROM 2008.
T6RUE.
BUT THEN THE TBLE PURPORTS THE REST OF THE WOLRD IS UP 10%.
CITING CHINA - WHOSE NUMBERS ARFE ALL BS.
AND TH MIDDLE EAST.
YEAH SURE.
MIDDLE EAST ECONOMIES ARE COLLAPSING AND THEY ARE NOT USING MORE ENERGY.
THE IEA USES THE NUMBERS PROVIDED BY THE COUNTRIES.
NO VETTING.
ANYHOW, IT SHOWS SUPPLY IS UP AND CONSUMPTION DOWN!
YET PRICE ISM UP!?!?
IT'S THE WEAK DOLLAR.
O R T TA B L E S
1 0 FE B R U A R Y 2 0 1 2 5 3
TABL E S
Table 1 - World Oil Supply and Demand
Table 1
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
(million barrels per day)
2008 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012
OECD DEMAND
North America 24.2 23.3 23.4 23.7 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.8 23.3 23.6 23.3 23.5 23.3 23.1 23.6 23.5 23.4
Europe 15.4 14.7 14.3 14.3 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.2 14.1 14.7 14.1 14.3 13.7 13.6 14.3 14.1 13.9
Pacific 8.1 7.7 8.2 7.3 7.6 8.1 7.8 8.3 7.1 7.7 8.3 7.9 8.6 7.4 7.6 8.1 7.9
Total OECD 47.6 45.6 46.0 45.3 46.7 46.7 46.2 46.3 44.5 45.9 45.8 45.6 45.6 44.1 45.5 45.7 45.3
NON-OECD DEMAND
FSU 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.8
Europe 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
China 7.7 8.1 8.6 9.1 8.9 9.7 9.1 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.7 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.8 10.2 9.9
Other Asia 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.2 10.6 10.4 10.7 10.7 10.4 10.9 10.7 10.9 11.0 10.7 11.2 10.9
Latin America 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.6
Middle East 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.8 8.3 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.0 8.5 8.0 8.0 7.8 8.2 8.6 8.1 8.2
Africa 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5
Total Non-OECD 38.9 39.9 40.8 42.2 42.5 43.1 42.2 42.7 43.3 43.6 44.1 43.4 43.5 44.6 45.0 45.5 44.6
Total Demand
1
86.6 85.6 86.8 87.5 89.1 89.8 88.3 89.0 87.9 89.5 89.8 89.1 89.1 88.7 90.5 91.2 89.9
OECD SUPPLY
North America
4
13.3 13.6 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.1 14.4 14.3 14.5 15.0 14.5 15.0 14.9 14.9 15.2 15.0
Europe 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.1 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.8
Pacific 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
Total OECD 18.8 18.8 19.1 18.8 18.5 19.1 18.9 19.0 18.6 18.7 19.4 18.9 19.5 19.2 19.2 19.7 19.4
NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU 12.8 13.3 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.7 13.6 13.8 13.9 13.7 13.9 13.8
Europe 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
China 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2
Other Asia
2
3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Latin America
2,4
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4
Middle East 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6
Africa
2
2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4
Total Non-OECD 28.4 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.8 30.1 29.7 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.0
Processing Gains
3
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3
Global Biofuels
4
1.4 1.6 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.9
Total Non-OPEC
2
50.6 51.5 52.1 52.5 52.6 53.1 52.6 52.7 52.3 52.6 53.2 52.7 53.2 53.4 53.7 54.3 53.6
Non-OPEC: Historical Composition
2
49.6 51.5 52.1 52.5 52.6 53.1 52.6 52.7 52.3 52.6 53.2 52.7 53.2 53.4 53.7 54.3 53.6
OPEC
Crude
5
31.6 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.5 30.0 29.5 29.9 30.5 30.0
NGLs 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.
THX 4 THE LINK.
READ IT.
ITS BULLSHIT.
THE TABLE SHOWS OECD DOWN FROM 2008.
T6RUE.
BUT THEN THE TBLE PURPORTS THE REST OF THE WOLRD IS UP 10%.
CITING CHINA - WHOSE NUMBERS ARFE ALL BS.
AND TH MIDDLE EAST.
YEAH SURE.
MIDDLE EAST ECONOMIES ARE COLLAPSING AND THEY ARE NOT USING MORE ENERGY.
THE IEA USES THE NUMBERS PROVIDED BY THE COUNTRIES.
NO VETTING.
ANYHOW, IT SHOWS SUPPLY IS UP AND CONSUMPTION DOWN!
YET PRICE ISM UP!?!?
IT'S THE WEAK DOLLAR.
O R T TA B L E S
1 0 FE B R U A R Y 2 0 1 2 5 3
TABL E S
Table 1 - World Oil Supply and Demand
Table 1
WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
(million barrels per day)
2008 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012
OECD DEMAND
North America 24.2 23.3 23.4 23.7 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.8 23.3 23.6 23.3 23.5 23.3 23.1 23.6 23.5 23.4
Europe 15.4 14.7 14.3 14.3 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.2 14.1 14.7 14.1 14.3 13.7 13.6 14.3 14.1 13.9
Pacific 8.1 7.7 8.2 7.3 7.6 8.1 7.8 8.3 7.1 7.7 8.3 7.9 8.6 7.4 7.6 8.1 7.9
Total OECD 47.6 45.6 46.0 45.3 46.7 46.7 46.2 46.3 44.5 45.9 45.8 45.6 45.6 44.1 45.5 45.7 45.3
NON-OECD DEMAND
FSU 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.8
Europe 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
China 7.7 8.1 8.6 9.1 8.9 9.7 9.1 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.7 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.8 10.2 9.9
Other Asia 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.2 10.6 10.4 10.7 10.7 10.4 10.9 10.7 10.9 11.0 10.7 11.2 10.9
Latin America 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.6
Middle East 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.8 8.3 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.0 8.5 8.0 8.0 7.8 8.2 8.6 8.1 8.2
Africa 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5
Total Non-OECD 38.9 39.9 40.8 42.2 42.5 43.1 42.2 42.7 43.3 43.6 44.1 43.4 43.5 44.6 45.0 45.5 44.6
Total Demand
1
86.6 85.6 86.8 87.5 89.1 89.8 88.3 89.0 87.9 89.5 89.8 89.1 89.1 88.7 90.5 91.2 89.9
OECD SUPPLY
North America
4
13.3 13.6 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.1 14.4 14.3 14.5 15.0 14.5 15.0 14.9 14.9 15.2 15.0
Europe 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.1 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.8
Pacific 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
Total OECD 18.8 18.8 19.1 18.8 18.5 19.1 18.9 19.0 18.6 18.7 19.4 18.9 19.5 19.2 19.2 19.7 19.4
NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU 12.8 13.3 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.7 13.6 13.8 13.9 13.7 13.9 13.8
Europe 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
China 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2
Other Asia
2
3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Latin America
2,4
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4
Middle East 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6
Africa
2
2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4
Total Non-OECD 28.4 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.8 30.1 29.7 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.0
Processing Gains
3
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3
Global Biofuels
4
1.4 1.6 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.9
Total Non-OPEC
2
50.6 51.5 52.1 52.5 52.6 53.1 52.6 52.7 52.3 52.6 53.2 52.7 53.2 53.4 53.7 54.3 53.6
Non-OPEC: Historical Composition
2
49.6 51.5 52.1 52.5 52.6 53.1 52.6 52.7 52.3 52.6 53.2 52.7 53.2 53.4 53.7 54.3 53.6
OPEC
Crude
5
31.6 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.5 30.0 29.5 29.9 30.5 30.0
NGLs 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.
Sorry...
The IEA is a very credible source.
To arbitrarily dismiss that source by simply announcing "ITS BULLSHIT" fails to impress me.
See my quantitative analysis of a virtually identical imbalance in 2008:
http://sbvor.blogspot.com/2008/07/world-oil-balance-vs-price.html
Then, revisit the link in my first comment in this thread. Facts are facts. These facts are unimpeachable.
I READ THE TABLE.
I POSTED THE FIGURES TO PROVE IT.
IT SHOWS CONSUMPTION IS DOWN AND SUPPLIES ARE UP.
IT PURPORTS THAT CONSUMPTION IS UP UP IN THE MIDDLE EAST SINCE 2008 - WHICH IS BULLSHIT. POST ARAB SPRING ARABS ARE NOT USING MORE ENERGY.
TH NUMBERS ON CHINA ARE WRONG.
CHINA ENERGY USE IS DOWN.
BUT YOUR TABLE SHOWS SUPPLIES ARE UP AND CONSUMPTION DOWN, YET PRICES ARE UP.
ALSO:
KNOWN RESERVES ARE WAY WAY WAY WAY WAY UP SINCE 2008.
SO IT CANNOT BE SUPPLY AND DEMAND DRIVING UP GASOLINE PRICES.
'THE DOLLAR IS WEAKER AND THAT IS WHY A BARREL OF CRUDE IS MORE DOLLARS.
IT SHOWS UP IN CHINA
SORRY UR LINK IS TO A 2009 POST.
R U AWARE THAT IS 3 YRS AGO?
1) The only relevant question is this:
Is global demand exceeding global supply? The answer is yes -- this has been the case for EACH of the last 8 quarters.
2) "UR LINK IS TO A 2009 POST.
R U AWARE THAT IS 3 YRS AGO"
No shit, Sherlock! Which part of "See my quantitative analysis of a virtually identical imbalance in 2008" did you not understand?
3) Okay, I get it...
You have accepted your (BULLSHIT) explanation as an article of religious faith and (just like a whole bunch of "Progressives" I know) you refuse to objectively examine the extremely well substantiated quantitative facts to the contrary.
I'm outta here -- ADIOS!
sbvur;
u don;t get shit.
u r a fucking piece of shit moron.
your own table ref shows crude oil prod is up.
not down.
up.
consumption is only up in china and the middle east. neither is a credible claim and can;t make up for the amount we and europe are down.
oil sales are dollar denominated.
oil and gold and the stock markets track each other.
oil prices are up coz the dollar is weak.
you are a fucking moron who wants to repeal the law of supplyNdemand in currency and commodity arenas.
good luck with that.
stay the fuck away from here unless you want to open your eyes and wake up.
repeat:
your iea chart proves my point, not yours.
you fucking greasy nameless asshole.
http://astuteblogger.blogspot.com/2012/03/is-china-crashing.html
but zerohedge is reporting a huge surge in china's purchase of oil.
why?
they are dumping dollars and buying oil as a hedge.
why r they dumping dollars?
they don't want to hold our currency obama turns us into greece.
iow:
china's purchase is not due to industrial demand, but the currency.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/china-posts-biggest-trade-deficit-1989-crude-imports-surge-china-recycling-export-dollars-solel
sbvorasshole:
all the numbers for consumption on that table that are from transparent nations are down.
only china and the middle east are up any significant amount and neither is barely credible.
china did buy a huge amount of oil last month -and it is seen as an attempt to hedge the weak dollar, and not for industrial need.
repeat:
the table on page 53 shows oil supplies up. not down.
fuckoff u stupid idiotic nameless piece of moronic shit.
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