"ALL CAPS IN DEFENSE OF LIBERTY IS NO VICE."

Monday, February 09, 2009

THIS RECESSION IS NOWHERE NEAR THE WORST SINCE THE DEPRESSION: THE ASTUTE BLOGGERS SCOOPS EVERYONE BY TWO WEEKS

Al Reynolds wrote about it today in the NYPOST:
PRESIDENT Obama, writing in The Washington Post, said, "By now, it's clear to everyone that we have inherited an economic crisis as deep and dire as any since the days of the Great Depression." But how would we know if and when this crisis is really more "deep and dire" than others? Many may believe we're in the worst recession since the Great Depression, if only because politicians and the press keep repeating that claim. But we need to compare some facts to discern whether this recession is (or will be) "worse" in some sense than those of 1973-75 or 1981-82.

Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf told the House Budget Committee that if the economy is still contracting by mid-year, then this recession will be longer than the 1981-82 and 1973-75 downturns, each of which lasted 16 months. Yet this recession was quite mild until last September.

And the severity and human discomfort of downturns can't be measured by their duration.
A wise adviser to President John Kennedy, Arthur Okun of Yale, devised the "misery index" to gauge the pain of economic crisis - a measure that simply adds together the unemployment rate and the inflation rate.

It hit 22 percent in June 1980, during an inflationary recession that preceded the Fed's disinflationary squeeze of 1981-82.

The misery index was nearly as bad in January 1975, at 19.9 percent.
Assuming inflation was close to zero this January, the misery index would have been roughly the same as the unemployment rate, or 7.6 percent.

By this standard, we have a very long way to go before the economy feels nearly as miserable as it did in 1975 or 1980.
(Via JWF - who has more.)

OTHERS LINKED TO THE ARTICLE:
How Bad Is this Economic Downturn? (by Don Boudreaux)
...left -- remain so stubbornly blind to the reality of the current downturn, as explained today by Alan Reynolds. Here's a sample paragraph:
Preview Feed Don Boudreaux for Cafe Hayek - Found 10 hours ago
Un-recommended reading
...the case that we are in a recession. Recessions, Reynolds writes, “have almost always ended within a year or so, before there was a Federal...
Preview Feed tnr1.com for The Plank - Found 8 hours ago
Is it really that bad? Nope...
Too much fear mongering not enough reality and action...
Preview Feed Steve Levy for Everyone's Blog Posts - RecruitingBlogs.com - Found 4 hours ago
Alan Reynolds Embraces Deflation
A wise adviser to President John Kennedy, Arthur Okun of Yale, devised the “misery index” to gauge the pain of economic crisis - a measure that
Preview Feed myglesias for Matthew Yglesias - Found 7 hours ago
Politics of Money Radio AM1000 KCEO, 1-2pm Today...
Amazon.com Press Conference Sparks Kindle Speculation - Bloomberg ... Economy. It's a Recession, not a 'Catastrophe' - Alan Reynolds, New York...
Preview Feed Politics of Money - Found 18 hours ago
How to gauge Recession...
...titled,It's a Recession not a Catastrophe. ... To see the Misery Index now and historically, go here: http://www.miseryindex.us/
Preview Feed ethics for Global Affairs Forum, Politics, Law, Science, Health - Found 10 hours ago
The Stimulus Bill -- Much Overkill, Little effectiveness
Check it out at: http://www.nypost.com/seven/02092009/po...
Objective Conservative for Objective Conservative - Found 17 hours ago
Daily Links
Goldman Sachs Wants Out Of TARP. It's A Recession, Not A Catastrophe. WTO Members Meet To Assess Growing Protectionism...
noreply@blogger.com (JJG) for The GW Patriot - Found 6 hours ago
More on that unhelpful “catastrophe” talk
It’s a recession, not a ‘catastrophe’…A wise adviser to President John Kennedy, Arthur Okun of Yale, devised the “misery index” to
admin for Dinocrat - Found 7 hours ago
WELL, WE SCOOPED THEM ALL ON THIS. ALL OF THEM. EVERY SINGLE ONE.

We first posted this on 1/26/09:
THE MISERY INDEX - THEN AND NOW
WIKI:
The misery index is an economic indicator, created by economist Arthur Okun, and found by adding the unemployment rate to the inflation rate.

... During the
Presidential campaign of 1976, Democratic candidate Jimmy Carter made frequent references to the Misery Index, which by the summer of 1976 was at 13.57%.

Carter stated that no man responsible for giving a country a misery index that high had a right to even ask to be President.

Carter won the 1976 election.

However, by 1980, when President Carter was running for re-election against
Ronald Reagan, the Misery Index had reached an all-time high of 21.98%. Carter lost the election to Reagan.
  • REAGAN DIDN'T TELL US THAT THE WORST WAS YET TO COME.
  • REAGAN TOLD US IT WAS MORNING IN AMERICA, THAT OUR BEST DAYS WERE STILL AHEAD OF US.
  • AND HE HELPED US MAKE THAT TRUE.
TODAY, THE MISERY INDEX IS 8.
  • EIGHT. NOT 22.
  • THAT MEASN THE MISERY INDEX IS ONE-THIRD OF WHAT IT WAS THEN.
  • YET OBAMA TELLS US WE NEED A TRILLION DOLLAR STIMULUS PACKAGE, AND THAT THE WORST IS YET TO COME.
  • AND THAT WE MUST MUST MUST PASS HIS "STIMULUS PACKAGE" TO FIX THE ECONOMY.
  • THAT'S NOT OPTIMISM; IT'S PESSIMISM AND SOCIALISM.
And again, 1/28/09:
BY OFFFERING OPTIMISTIC CONSERVATISM AND CUTTING TAXES, REAGAN SAVED US DURING MUCH WORSE TIMES
THOUGH THE MISERY INDEX WAS THREE TIMES GREATER THEN THAN NOW, REAGAN NEVER TRASH-TALKED THE US ECONOMY.

REAGAN
NEVER LOST FAITH IN AMERICA OR THE FREE MARKET.

BY REMAINING TRUE TO OUR FIRST PRINCIPLES,
BY STRENGTHENING OUR NATIONAL SECURITY,
AND BY CUTTING TAXES,
REAGAN HELPED AMERICA RENEW ITSELF.



TO GET OUT OF OUR CURRENT RECESSION,
WE NEED MORE REAGANOMICS AND LESS OBAMANOMICS.

- Posted by Reliapundit @ 12:00 AM ; Permalink;
Regular readers know we scoop the biggies all the time. Spread the word. Bookmark us. Blogroll us.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

"OBAMA TELLS US WE NEED A TRILLION DOLLAR STIMULUS PACKAGE, AND THAT THE WORST IS YET TO COME"

And the more of that "stimulus porkage" that's effected, the worse it will get.

What is they say? Never miss a chance to exploit a crisis. And if it isn't a crisis, either make it one or convince people it is one, even if it isn't.

Reliapundit said...

YTBA:

YOU REALLY NEED TO START BLOGGING HERE!

HOW CAN I CONTACT YOU?

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