"ALL CAPS IN DEFENSE OF LIBERTY IS NO VICE."

Sunday, November 02, 2008

POLLS ACTUALLY SHOW WHY OBAMA WILL LOSE AND MCCAIN WILL WIN

KERRY GOT 89% OF THE DEMS AND LOST:

SOCIAL GROUPS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE, 2004

Size Bush Kerry Nader
Party



Democratic 37% 11% 89% 0%
Independent 26% 48% 49% 1%
Republican 37% 93% 6% 0%

POLLS SHOW THAT OBAMA IS NOT DOING AS WELL AS KERRY WITH DEMOCRATS:

IBD/TIPP:
OBAMA AMONG DEMOCRATS: 85%

MCCAIN IS POLLING AT 8%, BUT UNDECIDEDS - WHO ARE BREAKING FOR MCCAIN - ARE STILL A WHOPPING 7%.
  • DEMOCRATS WHO HAVEN'T YET DECIDED THEY'RE GOING TO VOTE OBAMA, ARE - IMHO - NOT GOING TO VOTE OBAMA;
  • THEREFORE, MCCAIN SHOULD PICK UP ABOUT 75% OF THESE AND END UP WITH 14% (WITH 1% VOTING FOR SOMEONE ELSE OR ABSTAINING).
  • THIS WILL BE THE MARGIN OF VICTORY FOR MCCAIN.
IT MAKES PERFECT SENSE: MCCAIN IS THE TRUE CENTRIST AND THE TRUE POST-PARTISAN/BI-PARTISAN CANDIDATE.

VOTE ACCORDINGLY.

1 comment:

Everett Volk said...

Perhaps you should try accounting for party ID and see how the math works out. Assuming, of course, that you can do math. Crazy, I know, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.