MCCAIN AS MORE JACKSONIAN: THE ASTUTE BLOGGERS SCOOP JONAH GOLDBERG BY ER, UM... 9 MONTHS!

GOLDBERG YESTERDAY:

Psephologist and columnist Michael Barone noticed during the primaries that, with the exception of the black vote, Obama’s support within the Democratic party is comprised almost entirely of cultural liberals. He dubbed this intra-Democratic split a divide between “academics and Jacksonians.” The Jacksonians are working-class, culturally conservative whites. The academics are the same people who formed the base for Howard Dean, Bill Bradley, Michael Dukakis, Gary Hart, George McGovern, and other successful presidents in the anti-matter universe where Spock has a goatee.

In this universe, however, you need Jacksonians more than you need academics to win a general election, which is one reason why no non-southern Democrat has won the presidency in nearly a half-century. It’s not that voters love southerners, either. Rather, southern Democrats simply seem more Jacksonian (even so, only Jimmy Carter won with a majority of the popular vote).

TAB ON 11/28/07:

We American's want tour president to be an American hero, of sorts.

Someone who embodies what makes this nation great.

Given the choice between an intellectual egghead and a man with common sense, we always choose the man with common sense.

We choose them man who we think is tougher in fight - and will probably win one, rather than someone who might talk his way out of one.

We prefer Andrew Jackson's stature to John Quincy Adams' weightiness.

[NOTE: EVEN IN 1824, JACKSON WON A PLURALITY IN BOTH THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND THE POPULAR VOTE.]

• We prefer Ike's leadership to Adlai's erudition - his wonkiness.
• Truman's plain talking to Dewey's East Coast Republican urbanity.
• JFK's vim and vigor and bellicosity was preferred over Nixon's seeming weakness & sickliness - (because of their appearance on the first Presidential TV debate).
• Dubya was more likable, authentic, raw and rumpled than either Gore or Kerry.
• LBJ - a deal-making cowboy - was liked more than Goldwater, an ideologue.
• FDR was a cripple whose ability to surmount his handicap with a smile inspired a crippled America.
• Clinton felt our pain and knew the price of a gallon of milk. GHW Bush was a blue-blood at sea.
• Lincoln was born in a log cabin and chopped wood.
  

And so on.

Nearly every single race has been one by the more natural man. The man of the people. The more common man.

So what does this tell us about 2008?

Well, obviously McCain, Fred and Huckabee are the most Jacksonian on the GOP side. Rudy's okay, too. Mitt's big problem is that he seems too slick, too smooth, too smart. He can win the nomination, but - unless he can loosen up - he could lose the general election.

AND ON THE DEMOCRAT SIDE? I don't see one single solitary Jacksonian. Maybe Biden or Richardson - only it's difficult to seem Jacksonian when you've calling for retreat from Iraq for the past couple of years...

I guess I'm saying that right now - based on who is in the race right now - I'd bet that the race is in the bag for the GOP.

If they frame the race as Jackson versus Adams, and can cast their candidate as Jackson.

• MORE FROM TAB ON THIS HERE (FEBRUARY '08) AND HERE (8/13/08).

• ANY WAY YOU SLICE WE KICKED JONAH'S BUT ON THIS.

• REGULAR READERS KNOW THAT THIS HAPPENS A LOT AT TAB - BECAUSE WE DON;T JUST FOLLOW THE PACK; WE LEAD.

• SPREAD THE WORD. BLOGROLL US.