SINCE THE 1828 JACKSON VERSUS ADAMS CONTEST, EVERY RACE HAS BEEN WON BY THE MORE JACKSONIAN CANDIDATE

We American's want tour president to be an American hero, of sorts.

Someone who embodies what makes this nation great.

Given the choice between an intellectual egghead and a man with common sense, we always choose the man with common sense.

We choose them man who we think is tougher in fight - and will probably win one, rather than someone who might talk his way out of one.

We prefer Andrew Jackson's stature to John Quincy Adams' weightiness.

[NOTE: EVEN IN 1824, JACKSON WON A PLURALITY IN BOTH THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND THE POPULAR VOTE.]

• We prefer Ike's leadership to Adlai's erudition - his wonkiness.
• Truman's plain talking to Dewey's East Coast Republican urbanity.
• JFK's vim and vigor and bellicosity was preferred over Nixon's seeming weakness & sickliness - (because of their appearance on the first Presidential TV debate).
• Dubya was more likable, authentic, raw and rumpled than either Gore or Kerry.
• LBJ - a deal-making cowboy - was liked more than Goldwater, an ideologue.
• FDR was a cripple whose ability to surmount his handicap with a smile inspired a crippled America.
• Clinton felt our pain and knew the price of a gallon of milk. GHW Bush was a blue-blood at sea.
• Lincoln was born in a log cabin and chopped wood.
  

And so on.

Nearly every single race has been one by the more natural man. The man of the people. The more common man.

So what does this tell us about 2008?

Well, obviously McCain, Fred and Huckabee are the most Jacksonian on the GOP side. Rudy's okay, too. Mitt's big problem is that he seems too slick, too smooth, too smart. He can win the nomination, but - unless he can loosen up - he could lose the general election.

AND ON THE DEMOCRAT SIDE? I don't see one single solitary Jacksonian. Maybe Biden or Richardson - only it's difficult to seem Jacksonian when you've calling for retreat from Iraq for the past couple of years...

I guess I'm saying that right now - based on who is in the race right now - I'd bet that the race is in the bag for the GOP.

If they frame the race as Jackson versus Adams, and can cast their candidate as Jackson.

THEN AGAIN: 3-WAY RACES MAKE ANY OUTCOME IS POSSIBLE. ALL BETS ARE OFF WITH RON PAUL OR RALPH NADER ON THE BALLOT - OR EVEN BLOOMBERG OR DOBBS.

THIS IS THE DEMS BEST HOPE.

HEY: IT SURE HELP BJ CLINTON!