"ALL CAPS IN DEFENSE OF LIBERTY IS NO VICE."

Friday, March 30, 2007

Is War With Iran Coming Soon?

I know I've been saying it for a long time. And, I must sound like Chicken Little, but I really do think it is necessary, and it looks like it may be finally about to happen.

Three articles I've noticed in the past few days, the first from the unreliable DebkaFile:
US financial sources in Bahrain report American investors in Bahrain advised to pack up business operations and leave

The advice came from officers with US Central Command 5th Fleet HQ at Manama, who spoke of security tension, a hint at an approaching war with Iran. Arab sources report the positioning of a Patriot anti-missile battery in Bahrain this week; they say occupancy at emirate hotels has soared past 90% due mostly to the influx of US military personnel. They also report Western media crews normally employed in military coverage are arriving in packs.

Thursday, March 29, Gen. Khaled al-'Absi, Bahrain's chief of air defense operations disclosed that new alarm networks had been installed and air defense systems upgraded to handle chemical, biological and radioactive attacks.

The USS Nimitz and its support ships will be departing San Diego Monday, April 2, to join the John C. Stennis Strike Group in the Persian Gulf. The nuclear carrier is due to relieve the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower , but military sources in the Gulf believe all three US carriers will stay put if tensions continue to climb or if fighting breaks out involving American, British and Iranian forces. The mighty American armada is further supported by the USS Bataan and USS Boxer strike groups.

Earlier, DEBKAfile quoted intelligence sources in Moscow as predicting that a US strike against Iranian nuclear installations codenamed Operation Bite has been scheduled for April 6 at 0040 hours. Missiles and air raids will conduct strikes designed to be devastating enough to set Tehran's nuclear program several years back.
The second article comes from the BBC:
The capture of 15 British Royal Navy personnel by Iranian forces in the Gulf comes at a time when Tehran feels it is under unprecedented international pressure. The country is diplomatically isolated and feels under a constant and building US military threat.

Earlier this month the UN Security Council passed a resolution against Iran over its nuclear programme. Iranian diplomats worked very hard to convince some members of the council, such as South Africa, Indonesia and Qatar, to support Tehran's case.

But it failed, and the vote in favour of the resolution was unanimous, further convincing the Iranian leadership that they have few friends left at the UN and that diplomacy is not working in their favour.

Iran is now also militarily encircled by the US forces. American troops are based in almost every country bordering Iran - Afghanistan, Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan and Azerbaijan. The US Navy has been conducting a series of exercises in the Gulf - the biggest war games in the area since the invasion of Iraq four years ago.
And then, finally, this news out of Israel:
Jerusalem, Israel (AHN) - Israel's Arrow anti-missile system is now capable of downing nearly everything in Iran's missile arsenal, including all of the Iranian missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

That according to Israeli opposition lawmaker Yuval Steinitz, who is a member of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. Steinitz told the AP that following its latest tests, the Arrow, which was jointly developed by Israel and the U.S., has proven itself able to deal with a very wide array of ballistic missiles ...
It looks to me like all the pieces are in place. The forces are amassing.

4 comments:

Reliapundit said...

10News.com
USS Nimitz Scheduled To Depart For Persian Gulf
Ship To Join Another Local Aircraft Carrier

POSTED: 12:05 pm PDT March 28, 2007
UPDATED: 12:22 pm PDT March 28, 2007
SAN DIEGO -- The USS Nimitz and its support ships will depart San Diego on Monday for the Persian Gulf to join another local aircraft carrier strike group already in the region, military officials said.

The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier will join the San Diego-based John C. Stennis Strike Group and relieve the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, according to Naval Air Forces Public Affairs.

Military officials said in a statement that the two-carrier presence in the Persian Gulf area is intended to demonstrate the country's "resolve to build regional security and bring long-term stability to the region."

Pastorius said...

Sorry I repeated your earlier post.

:)

What do you think is going on? Are we finally getting ready to attack?

Reliapundit said...

we are DEFINITELY getting ready to WHACK them BIGTIME!

i am not sure when.

either it will be precipitated by iran - sooner rather than later (may-sept), or it will occur NEXT YEAR - or january 2009 (NINE) just before hill and barack are sworn in.

anyhow the key thing is that assets have to be in place so the potus/CinC can order an attack and the attack can be swift and final.

swift =- two weeks.
final = destroying ALL of iran's nuke assets, air force, navy, army, refineries, and power plants, and bridges and tunnels.

this will be a favor to BOTH sides within iran - the theocrats and the democrats:

the theocrats get to live as they REALY REALLY want: in the 10th Century!

and the democrats get to attack a weakened tyranny.

the GOP might want bush to do this sooner: that way the positive effects might rise to the top by the time of the 2008 election.

if rudy can win this thing, then MAYBE bush doesn't attack at all: he MIGHT trust rudy to carry on WW4 properly.

if i had to bet right now, i'd bet we attack a week after the first really big primary day, when the two parties have each virtually picked their candidates - who can then either support the action or not. but can certainly distance themselves from it.

bush would prefer that the US troops in iraq were NOT there: they are relatively close targets for iran.

AND BTW: i now worry about a "NUCLEAR COLE ATTACK"... imagine a small iranian vessel in the persian gulf getting as close as possible to our fleets there... and then they sue the vessel as a suicide bomber and the bomb is a smallish nuke they bought from noko...

THEN WHAT!?!?!?!?!

this is the nightmare scenario i now think most likely.

then... tall these challenges that iran is throwing at us MAKES SENSE: they're drawing us into a TRAP!

it's just a scenario/gaming thing.

but POSSIBLE.

and it would wipe out MOST of our navy and MOST of our ability to project power across the globe...

a coup de grace, ALMOST!

we'd have no choice but to respond with nukes and turn iran into a sheet of glass.

stay tuned...


i was gonna post on this scenario over the weekend.

sort of as a warning...

whattayatink?

Reliapundit said...

REMEMBER: bush has NOTHING to lose anymore.

he will ONLY do the right thing.

and i think he thinks that is REMOVE the nuke threat from iran.

he is at 30% in the polls, and cannot go much lower and cannot run for reelection.

(a reason the doves might want to repeal the term limitation amendment! lameduckiness means a retiring potus can more readily make war even if it is unpopular.)