THE NIE PROVES THAT IRAN HAS BEEN LYING, AND THAT TH IRAQ WAR HAS GREATLY IMPROVED OUT SECURITY

• IRAN HAS NEVER ADMITTED THEY HAD A NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM - ONE WHICH THEY LIED ABOUT FOR 20 YEARS.

• THE NIE GUESSES THEY ENDED IT BECAUSE OF BUSH'S AGGRESSIVE, ASSERTIVE, MILITARILY "FORWARD-LEANING" POLICIES - JUST LIKE LIBYA AND NORTH KOREA.
• THE WAR AGAINST SADDAM PROVED THESE TYRANNICAL REGIMES THAT WE WOULD ATTACK THEM IF THEY DIDN'T "CLEAN UP THEIR ACTS."
  

• TO ARGUE NOW - AS PELOSI AND THE REST OF THE ENEMY-APPEASING DEFEATIST DEMS ARE - THAT WE SHOULD LET UP THE PRESSURE ON IRAN IS IDIOTIC. AND DEAD WRONG.

• PRESSURE IS EXACTLY WHAT WORKED.

IF IT AIN'T BROKE, THEN DON'T FIX IT!

Did the NIE on Iran's nuclear weapons program change so dramitically this Autumn because of the Israeli airstrike against Syria?

WEEKLY STANDARD/THOMAS JOCELYN:

... on July 11, 2007, roughly four or so months prior to the most recent NIE’s publication, Deputy Director of Analysis Thomas Fingar gave the following testimony before the House Armed Services Committee (emphasis added):

Iran and North Korea are the states of most concern to us. The United States’ concerns about Iran are shared by many nations, including many of Iran’s neighbors. Iran is continuing to pursue uranium enrichment and has shown more interest in protracting negotiations and working to delay and diminish the impact of UNSC sanctions than in reaching an acceptable diplomatic solution. We assess that Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons--despite its international obligations and international pressure. This is a grave concern to the other countries in the region whose security would be threatened should Iran acquire nuclear weapons.

This paragraph appeared under the subheading: "Iran Assessed As Determined to Develop Nuclear Weapons." And the entirety of Fingar’s 22-page testimony was labeled "Information as of July 11, 2007." No part of it is consistent with the latest NIE, in which our spooks tell us Iran suspended its covert nuclear weapons program in 2003 "primarily in response to international pressure" and they "do not know whether (Iran) currently intends to develop nuclear weapons."

The inconsistencies are more troubling when we realize that, according to the Wall Street Journal, Thomas Fingar is one of the three officials who were responsible for crafting the latest NIE. The Journal cites "an intelligence source" as describing Fingar and his two colleagues as "hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials." (The New York Sun drew attention to one of Fingar’s colleagues yesterday.)

So, if it is true that Dr. Fingar played a leading role in crafting this latest NIE, then we are left with serious questions:

* Why did your opinion change so drastically in just four months time?

* Is the new intelligence or analysis really that good? Is it good enough to overturn your previous assessments? Or, has it never really been good enough to make a definitive assessment at all?

* Did your political or ideological leanings, or your policy preferences, or those of your colleagues, influence your opinion in any way?

Many in the mainstream press have been willing to cite this latest NIE unquestioningly. Perhaps they should start asking some pointed questions. (Don’t hold your breath.)

Posted by Thomas Joscelyn

I SUGGEST AN ANSWER: THAT THE SEPTEMBER 6TH I.A.F. AIR-STRIKE AGAINST THAT SECRET SYRIAN/NORTH KOREAN MILITARY SITE "NEUTRALIZED" THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM.

JONATHAN TOBIN ON BOLTON MEMOIRS

Jonathan Tobin writes about John Bolton's new memoir of his time as UN ambassador, Surrender is Not an Option. And among the discussions Bolton includes in his book:

"I didn't like the direction of our policy on too many issues, particularly Iran, North Korea and Arab-Israeli issues," he says. Under the ascendancy of U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, things would, in his opinion, "only get worse."

And even Colin Powell doesn't escape criticism here:

The chief villains in his account are secretaries of state Rice and Colin Powell. During Bush's first term, when Powell was in charge, the drive to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions lost critical ground. Rather than seek to lead our European allies into a coalition that would impose serious sanctions on that Islamic republic, Powell left "the driving to the European Union." That meant years - when Tehran's program was still far from success - were wasted. This convinced the Iranians that nothing would or could stop them.

Bolton deserves much praise for understanding just how poor a secretary of state Rice happens to be, and also Powell.

Panic In Iran

I have a long post about what the recent Israeli attack on Syria portends for Iran.


The short version: if America and/or Israel is going to attack Iran the attack will probably happen in the next two months or so.

ASSAD WAS PLANNING TO USE NUKES AGAINST ISRAEL (PLUS: THE TOTALLY AWESOME IAF COMMANDO OPERATION THAT SLOWED HIM DOWN)

So that's why he's been so confident lately:

Meir Dagan, chief of the Mossad intelligence agency, presented Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in late spring with evidence that Syria was seeking to buy a nuclear device from North Korea. Dagan apparently feared such a device could eventually be installed on North-Korean-made Scud-C missiles, the paper reported. "This was supposed to be a devastating Syrian surprise for Israel,"... The report suggested intelligence including satellite images revealed a facility in Syria which may be used to build nuclear warheads.

The absolute impunity with which the IAF violated Syrian airspace obviously represents a humiliating failure for Assad. But how bad was the breakdown in Syrian counter-intelligence? This bad:

According to the report, the force included F-15s and F-16s equipped with Maverick missiles and 500 pound bombs. Flying among the warplanes at great height, The Observer reported, was an electronic intelligence gathering aircraft. According to the Times report, an IAF commando team that had arrived on the ground days earlier directed laser beams at the target for the jets.

They were hanging out for days waiting for the jets to come in, then presumably they got the hell out of Dodge without Syrian forces being able to stop them from coming in or out of the country. No wonder the Syrians are trying to buy nuclear weapons off the shelf - they're too incompetent to build them, and something tells us that their army is not really ready to go against the IDF.

[Cross-posted to Mere Rhetoric]