- IND'S ARE 30% OF THE ELECTORATE. SO ROMNEY GETS 17%.
- ROMNEY GETS 95% OF THE GOP.
- THE GOP IS ABOUT 35% OF THE ELECTORATE.
- SO ROMNEY GETS 33%
- ON TOP OF THE 18%.
OBAMA GET'S ONLY 12% OF THE VOTE FROM IND'S. AND 33% MORE WITH 95% OF THE DEMS.
THAT'S ONLY 45%. THAT'S A LITTLE LESS THAN HE'S BEEN POLLING NATIONALLY. IT AIN'T ENOUGH TO WIN.
(ABOUT 4% VOTE FOR SEVERAL OTHER CANDIDATES. )
MORE ON THE IND VOTE AND ROMNEY:
Everything in the latest polls suggests doom for Obama with independents. This morning’s Washington Post poll has him down 20 with independents, 58-38. The Rasmussen national tracker has him down 17 today. Today’s IBD/TIPP poll has him down 10, 48-38.
SurveyUSA/Monmouth has him trailing by 19, 52-33. The outlier, SEIU/DailyKos pollster PPP, had Romney up 2 yesterday with independents, 47-45, after the PPP tracker showed him up 10, 51-41, three days earlier. In this morning’s swing state poll, Rasmussen shows Romney leading Obama by 11 with independents.
In Ohio, ARG has Obama down 20 with independents, 57-37, SurveyUSA has him down 8, 47-39; TIME has him down 15, 53-38; PPP has him down 7, 49-42; CBS/Quinnipiac has him down 7, 49-42; Gravis has him down 19, 52-33.
Obama has lost independents.
.... if the Rasmussen and Gallup surveys accurately depict the electorate, this will not even be close....
... nearly everything we can verify shows the Democrats in worse shape than 2008. It’s just hard to see where you come up with the evidence of the Democratic turnout wave that Obama needs.
... It’s hard to make sense of why so many pollsters are showing this as a tight race under these circumstances, with independents consistently breaking heavily to Romney and all the indicators of turnout suggesting at least a much smaller Democratic advantage than 2008 and – if you believe Gallup’s and Rasmussen’s surveys – a Republican wave unlike any we've seen in a presidential election in our lifetimes.BOTTOM-LINE:
IN 2008, 32% OF THOSE WHO VOTED WERE DEMS.
OBAMA WON IN 2008 BECAUSE HE GOT THE MAJORITY OF IND'S. AND BECAUSE GOP TURNOUT WAS DOWN 2% FROM 2004.
- DEM TURNOUT AIN'T GONNA BE HIGHER THIS TIME AROUND.
- GOP TURNOUT AIN'T GONNA BE LOWER.
- AND ROMNEY IS WINNING IND'S.
IT'S GONNA BE LANDSLIDE.
UPDATE: BIGTIME POLL PREDICTS 52-47.