Since April, full-time jobs have increased by less than 100K, whereas part-time workers have increased by over 450K. These ratios I do not like. They indicate trouble, especially since the involuntary part-time employment measure accounts for most of it.
Not surprisingly, since April the unemployment rate for full-time workers has risen from 8.5% to 8.7%. See Table 10.
The unemployment rate for women who maintain families has surged. I have some questions about this number, but this is worrisome.
In April their unemployment rate was 10.2%, and in June 11.8%.
This tally is small, and so the month-to-month variability can be high, but there is a consistency in the reported number I don't like (May had risen to 10.9%) and it is confirmed somewhat by retail numbers in the Establishment report.
I don't believe I have ever mentioned this particular measure on this blog specifically. It is one that I watch for a first indication/confirmation that a downturn has begun. I believe it is a very sensitive indicator for several reasons.
The first is that female head of households generally have the least flexibility to move for employment, so marginal degradation in job conditions show up immediately in this worker pool. In other words, when the hiring stops or slows signficantly, they tend to show it immediately.
This pool of women usually hunt for jobs with determination and vigor, so this measure is somewhat isolated from other effects.
THINGS ARE WORSE THAN THE OBAMA FOLKS WANT YOU TO KNOW AND THEY'RE GETTING WORSE ALL THE TIME.
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