"ALL CAPS IN DEFENSE OF LIBERTY IS NO VICE."

Thursday, October 27, 2011

EU ANNOUNCES GREEK DEAL - BUT WILL IT WORK?

BBC business editor Robert Peston says it is perfectly clear that EU leaders have bought some time, and for a few weeks and maybe longer the markets will give them the benefit of the doubt.

The framework for the new fund is to be put in place in November.

... The ambition is not in doubt but many crucial details are missing and the test of this deal lies in the weeks ahead.


Greece has been given a chance to escape its debt trap but long years of austerity lie ahead and its economy is still shrinking.

The 1tn-euro bailout fund will be lower than some people think necessary to protect big economies like Italy and Spain. The test will be whether it lowers their borrowing costs.

With this deal some time has been bought. Some of the crucial details of how, for instance, the rescue fund will work, will not be hammered out until November.

Hanging over all of this is the question of growth. All of these calculations, commitments and expressions of determination can be dismissed if Europe's weakest countries do not return to growth.
DESPITE THE HAPPINESS IN THE MARKETS TODAY DUE TO THE DEAL MIGHT FAIL -
  • THE FUND IS TOO SMALL
  • THE DETAILS HAVEN'T BEEN WORKED OUT
  • THE BANKS MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO RAISE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL CAPITAL
THIS IS NOT YET A FAIT ACCOMPLI.

STAY TUNED...

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