Italy will likely default but Spain could scrape through, the Centre for Economics and Business Research said overnight as the eurozone debt crisis threatened to engulf the two eurozone countries.
The CEBR said it had modelled good and bad scenarios for the two countries and Italy could not support its debt even if rates fall back unless the eurozone's third-largest economy sharply increases growth.
"Realistically, Italy is bound to default, but Spain may just get away without having to do so," said the London-based consultancy.
... The country's economy grew by just 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of the year.
"Even if the cost of borrowing goes back down to 4 per cent, their growth rate is so anaemic that we see the debt GDP ratio remaining at 123 per cent in 2018," said the CEBR.
THE KEY TO ITALY - AND THE USA - IS ECONOMIC GROWTH: WITHOUT IT WE ARE SO COOKED!
HOW DO WE GET THE ECONOMIC GROWTH WE NEED?
LOWER EXPENSES FOR PEOPLE AND BUSINESSES.
HOW DO WE DO THAT? SIMPLE: CUT FEDERAL SPENDING AND CUT FEDERAL TAXES AND CUT FEDERAL REGULATIONS.
ESPECIALLY ANTI-FOSSIL FUEL REGULATIONS.
WE NEED TO BOOST THE USE OF COAL AND DOMESTIC OIL AND GAS TO BRING DOWN THE COST OF ENERGY.
LOWERING ENERGY COSTS AND TAXES WOULD BE LIKE GIVING EVERY AMERICAN A RAISE AND EVERY BUSINESS AN INFUSION OF CAPITAL.
THERE ARE NO OTHER SILVER BULLETS.