COOK: DEMS NOT IN LEAD

NRO:

Charlie Cook: ‘Signs of a Democratic rebound were just a false alarm.’

I’m sure a lot of Democrats think Charlie Cook is a cruel tease right now:

It appears that the signs of a possible Democratic rebound were just a false alarm. After almost a year of unrelentingly bad poll numbers, back-to-back weeks of Gallup Polls showing Democrats with eyebrow-raising leads might have just been statistical flukes.

For the weeks of July 12-18 and July 19-25, the Gallup Organization’s weekly aggregation of daily tracking polls showed Democrats ahead among all registered voters on the generic congressional ballot test question 49-43 percent and 48-44 percent, respectively. Each poll of more than 1,500 registered voters had 3-point error margins.

In the 21 weeks since Gallup began asking the generic ballot test question daily, releasing the aggregate numbers once a week, the two parties have averaged a tie.

Importantly, this tie is among all registered voters, which tends to not correspond to actual turnout numbers, and certainly not in midterms, which tend to skew Republican

WE ARE GONNA CLEAN OUT THE AUGEAN STABLE-LIKE CONGRESS THIS NOVEMBER - WITH YOUR HELP: JUST VOTE GOP!