GOOD NEWS, JUST AS WE PREDICTED: THE OIL BUBBLE HAS BURSTED AND THE PRICE OF OIL IS CRASHING

BACK IN JUNE WHEN OIL WAS VERY EXPENSIVE AND SOME WERE SAYING IT WOLD CLIMB UP TO $200/BARREL WE SAID IT WAS A BUBBLE AND WE PREDICTED IT WOULD BURST OR CRASH.

NOT MANY OTHER PEOPLE DID, AND NO MAJOR BLOGGERS, SAVE DINOCRAT.

HERE'S WHAT WE POSTED IN JUNE - RIGHT NEAR THE PEAK:

OIL BUBBLE INSANITY CONTINUES: OIL TRADES ABOVE $140

In three months oil has gone up nearly 50%.

IT'S NOW TRADING ABOVE $140.

This is INSANE.

A BUBBLE.

FROM MARCH TO MAY - AS OIL WENT UP 50%, THE DOLLAR WAS RELATIVELY STABLE ---- CHEAP, BUT STABLE.

SO I ARGUE IT'S A SPECULATIVELY FUELED BUBBLE.

AND IT WILL CRASH.

YES CRASH. THINGS GO DOWN MORE EASILY THAN UP. HERE'S WHY:

• TO GO FROM 100/BARREL TO 150/BARREL IS A 50% MOVE UP.
• BUT FROM 150/BARREL TO 100/BARREL IS ONLY A 30% DOWNWARD MOVE.
• 30% IS AN EASIER/QUICKER MOVE FOR A MARKET TO MAKE THAN 50%.
  

SO... IT WILL CRASH SOONER THAN YOU THINK.


Permalink - Posted by Reliapundit @ 7:51 AM

NOBODY ELSE WENT OUT ON A LIMB AND MADE THIS PREDICTION, BUT WE DID. WE GOT VERY SPECIFIC ON SEPT 18:

• IF OIL CONTINUES ITS TREND OF LATE (THE LAST FOUR MONTHS), AND COMES DOWN TO $65-75/BARREL BY HALLOWEEN, THEN NEXT YEAR WILL BE A BOOM YEAR.

SO... DON'T WORRY. BE HAPPY.

REMEMBER: THINGS ARE NEVER AS BAD AS THE MSM MAKES THEM SEEM WHEN A REPUBLICAN IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE.

Permalink - Posted by Reliapundit @ 7:56

REGULAR READERS KNOW WE ARE OFTEN PRESCIENT, IF NOT WAY AHEAD OF THE CURVE.

SPREAD THE WORD. BLOGROLL US.

BTW: I PREDICT MCCAIN WINS.