CHANCE OF BIRD FLU PANDEMIC HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED

RECOMBINOMICS:

Full H5N1 sequences from a 2008 isolate from Israel, A/chicken/Israel/1055/2008, have been released. The HA sequence is closely related to sequences from vaccinated flocks in Egypt. The Egyptian isolates were collected between mid-December, 2007, and mid-January, 2008, which is the same timeframe as the Israeli isolate. The HA sequences contained a large number of non synonymous polymorphisms, including M230V.

However, the PB2 sequence also has a number of recent acquisitions, which include mammalian polymorphisms. One set of three consecutive polymorphisms are found in H1N1 isolates, including the 1918 pandemic strain (see list here).

The acquisition of mammalian polymorphisms is cause for concern.

... The presence of a mammalian PB2 in a highly pathogenic H5N1 with a rapidly evolving H5 significantly increases pandemic concerns.

IT'S ONLY A MATTER OF WHEN...