"ALL CAPS IN DEFENSE OF LIBERTY IS NO VICE."

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

GOP DELEGATE COUNT IS MISLEADING: MCCAIN'S ACTUAL NUMBERS ARE NOT SO STRONG OR NATIONAL; MITT'S ARE!

Huckabee is strictly a regional favorite - largely among evangelicals and conservatives skeptical of Mitt and of Mitt's Mormonism.

McCain isn't really doing much better. (All statistics in this post are based on this page at the NYTIMES.)

Sure, he has a high overall delegate count - but let's look at it more closely:

TO DATE, McCain has carried a MAJORITY ONLY in the NE -- where the Rockefeller-wing of the GOP and the left-wing dominated MSM still rule the day: ONLY CT; NY; NJ.

TOTAL: THREE STATES. ALL IN THE NE. ALL DEM STATES IN THE FALL.

McCain did even NOT carry a MAJORITY IN HIS OWN HOME STATE.

Nor did McCain carry a majority in any southern state.

Nor did McCain carry a PLURALITY of GOP or CONSERVATIVE voters in the states he did win by pluralites.

McCain has come out on top in most primaries NOT because he's the most popular candidate in the GOP, but because Democrats and Independents have voted for him.

ALSO: "Nine of the Republican contests were winner take all, and that was where McCain piled up his lead." If the delegates from these states had been proportionately allocated, then the overall delegate count would MORE ACCURATELY reflect McCain's weaknesses and Mitt's strengths. McCain was able to WIN ALL the delegates from a few states IN WHICH HE DID NOT EVEN WIN BY A MAJORITY

NOW LET'S LOOK AT MITT'S PRIMARY RECORD:

Mitt Romney has carried a MAJORITY in 6 (six) states - that's TWICE as many as McCain, and these states are all across the USA: Wyoming; Nevada, Maine; Utah; Massachusetts and Colorado.

And in states where Mitt finished second, he carried a PLURALITY of conservatives and a plurality of Republicans. And these states are ALL ACROSS THE USA: Michigan; Florida; NH, etc.

Additionally, Mitt came in second place in 11 states! (McCain came in second only 9 times.)

What makes McCain's majority-wins even less indicative of any electoral strength in the Fall, is the fact that McCain is strongest where the GOP is LEAST LIKELY to be able to win in the Fall: NJ, CT; NY; CA - these are Dem/lib strongholds.

IOW: McCain might do much better than Bush or Mitt in these states, but LOSE several KEY GOP states because the base won't come out and vote for him. Since we elect presidents with electoral votes and NOT a popular vote, McCain's strength in Dem strongholds DO NOT MAKE IT MORE LIKELY HE WILL WIN THE ELECTION.

McCain might win the GOP nomination, but it is a recipe for defeat in the Fall.

Of the candidates left, Mitt is best positioned to carry the base, keep the GOP states in our column, and even add a few.

As Mark Levin says: when a RINO runs against a Dem lib, the real Dem will win every time. Which is why Lincoln Chafee is a FORMER Senator - and now a registered Dem.

Nominating McCain guarantees a huge GOP loss.

Which would be GREAT for Dems, socialists, greenies and jihadists.

it would as if the GOP nominated the Dem Copperhead McClellan - in 1860!

We must fight to prevent McCain from winning the nomination.

DO WHATEVER IT TAKES.

I have faith we can pull it off.

By "we" I mean conservative and GOP voters - a MAJORITY of whom have NOT voted for McCain.

Despite what the delegate count now looks like. The delegate count is a result of arcane state GOP rules - some states are winner take all, others caucuses, etc.

If you look at the vote count of REPUBLICAN VOTERS, MITT IS IT!

4 comments:

morlock said...

It doesn't surprise me. "Maverick" is banking on Independents and Democrats much more than he is conservatives.

Ironic isn't it? He's let us down so many times, yet "Mav" feels we should bow down and kiss his butt when he could use us.

I've seen polls across the internet in which conservatives are saying if he's the nominee, they won't be voting in the general.

Shame isn't it...that we couldn't choose a nominee that was at least palatable to most of us, rather than choose one with such a high 'resentment' backlash going against him?

Well, its not too late yet...still 1200 some odd delegate votes out there. You can do it delegates...vote Mitt! :)

Karlo said...

It sounds like your envious of the Democratic primary system.

Reliapundit said...

i'd like both parties to have closed primaries.

that would solve most for the problem in the gop.

and if you have superdelegates then you need to balance it with proportional delegates.

i'd get rid of the caucuses too.

morlock said...

I wonder if this is why McCain is getting so many delegate votes.

NEWSFLASH::LOUISIANA REPUBLICAN DELEGATES ORDERED TO VOTE MCCAIN....BEFORE THEIR STATE'S PRIMARY EVEN HELD.

Heh...this delegate is upset and has 'spilled the beans'. Apparently Republican state party poobah's have are tossing McCain 60% of the delegates BEFORE THE ELECTION IS EVEN HELD

She's posted the PDF of the backroom deal endorsement on her site.
Voter disenfranchisement anyone??

Why even go through the formality of a primary, just tell your party you've chosen and tough crap if they don't like it.