PAKISTANIS FLEEING TRIBAL REGIONS AHEAD OF MAJOR CONFRONTATION

BBC:

Thousands of Pakistanis have fled into Afghanistan with the security situation deteriorating in Pakistan's tribal regions over the past week.

Hundreds of families, comprising some 6,000 mainly women and children, have been crossing the border.

The UN refugee agency says clashes between Pakistan's Shia and Sunni groups have forced people to flee.

It is the first time so many people have crossed this way as for years it was Afghans fleeing fighting.

EARLIER TODAY WE RELATED THIS:

Pakistan launches new operation in Swat Valley

WEBINDIA: Pakistan launches new operation in Swat Valley

The Pakistan Army launched a new military operation Sunday to clear out armed Islamic militants spotted in remote areas of the strife-torn Swat Valley in the northwest, where hundreds have died in two months of clashes.

AND WE RELATED THIS IN AN EARLIER POST:

NEW GOVERNOR FOR PAKISTAN'S TRIBAL REGION: MUSHARRAF ABOUT TO GET VERY TOUGH

BBC: Key Pakistan governor steps down

The new governor, Owais Ahmed Ghani, has been known for his tough action - which often took the form of brutal force - against Baluch nationalists.

If his appointment indicates anything, it must be that for the Pakistani authorities, the use of force is still very much an option in dealing with militancy in the tribal areas.

• THE HAMMER IS ABOUT TO COME DOWN ON THE ANVIL.
• IT'S LONG OVERDUE.

STAY TUNED...

THEN THERE'S THIS FROM THE LONG WAR JOURNAL; (VIA HOT AIR):

Report: Osama bin Laden’s security coordinator captured in Pakistan

By Bill Roggio January 6, 2008 11:15 PM

Osama bin Laden escorted by the Black Guard. ...

A senior al Qaeda commander has been reported to have been captured in the Pakistani city of Lahore, according to a Pakistani newspaper. Dr. Amin al Haq, the security coordinator of Osama bin Laden’s Black Guard, “was apprehended from Lahore couple of days back,” The Nation reported, citing “credible Afghan sources.” Al Haq is said to be “under interrogation” at an undisclosed location.

The report of al Haq’s capture has not been confirmed, a senior intelligence official told The Long War Journal. US intelligence agencies are aware of the report.

... As security coordinator for the Black Guard, it is believed al Haq would be in close proximity to Osama bin Laden. US intelligence believes Osama bin Laden is hiding in Pakistan’s tribal agencies, a claim the Pakistani government has denied.

THOUGH WE RELATED THAT RECENTLY MUSHARRAF DID INDICATE OTHERWISE - FOR THE FIRST TIME:

FOR THE FIRST TIME, MUSHARRAF PUBLICLY SPECIFIES WHERE OSAMA IS HIDING

SATP: Pakistan

Osama bin Laden hiding around Bajaur, says President Pervez Musharraf

President Pervez Musharraf has for the first time identified an area where he thinks al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden may be hiding, according to Dawn.

When asked where he thinks the Osama could be, Musharraf said in an interview to The Washington Post that he could be in the area that borders Pakistan’s Bajaur tribal agency and Afghanistan’s Kunar province.

... THIS IS AN AREA WE'VE LONG AND RECENTLY ATTACKED FOR THIS VERY REASON; FROM ASIA TIMES (VIA VWT JULY 17, 2007):

The Bajaur area has been hit twice by Central Intelligence Agency predator drones, one specifically after Zawahiri. However, at a time when al-Qaeda is reactivated and the Taliban's main focus is to lay siege of Kabul, via adjacent Nooristan province in Afghanistan, aerial surveillance is considered insufficient.

... As a result, a large US base is under construction on a mountaintop at Ghakhi Pass on the Pakistan-Afghanistan (Bajaur) border.

Militants believe this is in preparation for an operation inside Pakistan to clamp down on them as well as to renew the hunt for bin Laden and his associates. As a result, the militants have attacked the new base in an attempt to delay its construction.

MY GUESS: MUSHARRAF WOULD ONLY SAY THIS IF:

• A MAJOR ATTACK IS AFOOT;
  
• OSAMA IS TRAPPED -
• AND THIS LEAK IS MEANT TO FLUSH HIM OUT A LITTLE;
• AND THEREFORE I FEEL THAT OSAMA WILL SOON BE DEAD.

DOES ALL THIS (AND RECENT HIGH LEVEL VISITS BY KARZAI, PM BROWN, PM RUDD, PM PRODI AND PRESIDENT SARKOZY) ADD UP TO AN IMMINENT MAJOR OFFENSIVE AGAINST OSAMA?

I THINK IT DOES.

• THE LOCALS SEEM KNOW IT.
• THE TALIBAN KNOW IT.
• AL QAEDA KNOWS IT.

I HOPE MY FEELING ABOUT THIS ARE ACCURATE AND THAT THE HAMMER AND ANVIL ATTACK IS A SUCCESS.

FINGERS CROSSED...