INSTAPUNDIT'S SC PRIMARY ANALYSIS ALL WRONG: MCCAIN NOT BIG WINNER

GLENN REYNOLDS:

January 19, 2008

FOX, CNN, AND NBC HAVE CALLED IT FOR MCCAIN. Huckabee is second, and Fred Thompson still seems to be holding onto third. I think this is pretty big -- ,If McCain can win South Carolina convincingly, he can win conservatives and if Huckabee can't win in South Carolina, where can he win?

posted at 09:29 PM by Glenn Reynolds Permalink

WHEN GLENN SAYS: "...If McCain can win South Carolina convincingly, he can win conservatives..." GLENN IS SIMPLY AND TOTALLY WRONG:

• EXIT POLLS IN SC SHOW EXACTLY WHAT THEY SHOWED IN NH: MCCAIN LOSES AMONG CONSERVATIVES.
• FACT: MCCAIN ONLY WINS GOP PRIMARIES BECAUSE OF LIBERALS, INDEPENDENTS, AND DEMS.
• UPDATE: IMHO THE GOP SHOULD PICK A STANDARD BEARER MORE IN TUNE WITH GOP VALUES - CONSERVATIVE VALUES.
  

Let's see how long it takes Glenn to post a retraction/amplification/correction...

*******UPDATE: CNN PROVIDES PROOF I AM RIGHT AND GLENN IS WRONG:

Vote by Party ID ----Huckabee -- McCain -- Romney -- Thompson
Democrat (2%) -----------0% ---------- 0% -------- 0% --------- 0%
Republican (80%) --------32% --------- 31% ------- 15% ------- 17%
Independent (18%) -------25% --------- 42% ------- 12% ------- 11%

Vote by Ideology -------Huckabee -- McCain -- Romney -- Thompson
Liberal (7%) -----------------20% ----------47% --------9% ---------13%
Moderate (24%) -------------21% ----------51% --------11% ---------8%
Conservative (69%) ----------35% ----------26% -------16% ---------19%

Some might argue McCain's ability to attract Independents and Dems bodes well for the Fall.

I disagree.

If McCain wins the GOP nomination he could very well lose in November because conservatives will stay home - IN DROVES.

It will make the 2006 GOP turnout look STUPENDOUSLY HUMONGOUS.

*******UPDATE #2: NRO/THE CORNER:

[Michael Graham]

...tell me again how McCain is winning?

As I predicted here at NRO, John McCain came out on top in South Carolina by getting the same 1/3rd of the vote in the Palmetto State that he got in New Hampshire and Michigan. But did he "win?"

In 2000, running against George W. Bush and the entire Carroll Campbell machine in South Carolina, John McCain got 42% of the vote, and 240,000 votes out of 573,000 or so cast.

Tonight, he got 33% of the vote in a field where his top challengers—Romney and Giuliani—aren't even running, and 135,000 actual votes. If just the same people who voted for McCain in 2000 had voted for him today, he would have won 50+% of the South Carolina vote. That would have been truly impressive.

Instead, John McCain LOST the support of 100,000 people—and he's the winner?

McCain had the same "success" in New Hampshire (McCain, 2000: 48%, 116,000 votes; McCain 2008: 37%, 89,000 votes) and Michigan (2000: 50%, 600,000 votes; 2008: 30%, 257,000 votes).

McCain is a weak candidate by any measure. Only once in his two presidential races has John McCain ever won a majority of the vote, and that was Michigan in 2000.

He has yet to crack 40% of the vote this year, and he's done even worse among self-identified Republicans (as opposed to independents and crossover Democrats).

EXACTLY. (THERE'S MORE; RTWT.)

*******UPDATE #3: THE GREAT ONE:

This Race [Mark R. Levin]

The problem for the Republicans in this race is that none of them have received a majority of the vote. The winner gets about one-third of the vote, and is declared the big winner (usually said to have momentum, or what have you). Yes, he wins a plurality. But none of them have won the hearts and minds of the GOP. And in some cases, they are relying on Democrats and independents for their relatively meager vote tallies. McCain still is not winning conservatives...

...I think most Republicans and conservatives can accept an imperfect candidate, as they always have. But, speaking for myself, I am as frustrated as I believe so many others are. It is hard to see how some of these candidates can draw the movement together, especially McCain, has spent a decade undermining major parts of it.

EXACTAMUNDO.

(BESIDES: MCCAIN BEAT HUCKSTERBEE BY ONLY 3%. HARDLY A RESOUNDING 1ST PLACE FINISH.)