2008: GOP LANDSLIDE?

2008 could turn out to be a landslide year for the GOP.

The Democrat Party relies on winning 90% of the urban African-American vote in order to win many statewide contests.

As Cornell Belcher and Donna Brazile wrote in "The Democratic Strategist:"

Perhaps the most important point to be made about Black turnout in 2006, however, is that there were several states where Black turnout increased significantly and had profound impacts on contested statewide Senate and gubernatorial races.

In Missouri, for instance, the Black share of the electorate increased from 8 percent in 1998 to 13 percent in 2006. That surge of Black electoral participation likely made the difference in Democrat Claire McCaskill's victory over Republican incumbent Senator Jim Talent. Similar surges in the Black share of the vote also occurred in Maryland, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, helping to propel Democratic statewide candidates to victory. Finally, the increase in the Black share of the vote in Tennessee (from 11 percent in 1998 to 13 percent in 2006) likely made the Ford/Corker Senate contest closer than it otherwise might have been.

If the Dems fail to nominate Senator Barack Hussein Obama, a disappointed and turned-off African-American electorate might fail to show up at all, giving the Republicans a lock on the Presidency, as well as many senatorial and gubernatorial contests.

On the other hand, if the GOP nominates Senator John McCain, a lot of Republicans won't show up, either.

In which case, it'd be a wash.