ARE PAKISTAN'S NUKES SAFE? LOUD WORDS AND A SHOW OF FORCE FROM PAKISTANI MILITARY SAY... MAYBE

ROGGIO AT LWJ SAYS AL QADA IS TARGETING PAKISTAN'S NUCLEAR BASES:

Yesterday's suicide bombing at the Kamra Air Force Base in Punjab was not the first strike at a nuclear weapons storage facility. After a closer look at the bases struck inside Pakistan since August, at least two more strikes occurred either on or near nuclear weapons storage facilities, based on open source information on Pakistan's nuclear weapons programs. Since August 2007, there have been two suicide attacks at or near the Sargodha Air Force Base, a nuclear weapons and missile storage facility in central Punjab province. Other attacks in Punjab and the Northwest Frontier Province may be aimed at facilities providing regional security for Pakistan's nuclear program.

On August 2, Pakistani police prevented a suicide bomber from attacking a parade at a police training facility in the city of Sargodha in eastern Punjab province. Police shot and killed the suicide bomber after he climbed the wall of the police academy, fired on a security detail, and ran towards the parade grounds where over 900 recruits assembled. One police officer was killed and another wounded in the exchange.

On November 1, a suicide bomber drove his motorcycle into a bus carrying military and intelligence officers at the air base in Sargodha. Eight were killed and 27 wounded in the strike.

The Sargodha Air Force Base serves as the "headquarters of the Pakistan Air Force's Central Air Command and home base for nuclear-capable F-16 combat aircraft, and Hatf-III/Ghaznavi/M-11 ballistic missiles," NTI reports. The base houses F-16 fighters believed to be converted to deliver nuclear weapons. "Analysts believe that the F-16s have been most likely modified for nuclear delivery. Some analysts believe that components or partially assembled air-deliverable nuclear devices might be stored at an ammunition depot at the Sargodha air base."

The Sargodha Air Force Base also houses "Pakistan's nuclear-capable, short-range, solid-fueled Hatf III/Ghaznavi/M-11 (total number estimated at 34-80) ballistic missiles," which are thought to be stored "at facilities near the Central Ammunition Depot on Kirana Hills at Sargodha. The evidence captured on US satellite imagery includes missile crates; storage sheds for transporter-erector launch vehicles; missile maintenance facilities; and housing for missile crews."

The Taliban and al Qaeda have hit several military and police bases near Pakistani nuclear facilities in northern Punjab and the Northwest Frontier Province over the past year. A suicide bomber killed 45 army recruits as they trained outside the military base in Dargai in the Northwest Frontier Province in November 2006. The Dargai base “serves as the headquarters of a Pakistan's army corps," the New York Times reported. "Mechanized infantry, armor and artillery are stationed in the garrison."

TIME MAGAZINE ALERTS US TO ANOTHER REASON THE NUKES MIGHT NOT BE SAFE:

Whenever the question of the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal comes up, the official U.S. response has been that the weapons are in safe hands. That position is, like the U.S. position on Russian nukes, based on trust — on high-level, personal contacts between military commanders on both sides. For now, Washington can maintain that line about Pakistan because that country's two highest military leaders have close ties to the U.S. or Britain. General Pervez Musharraf, who is also President, was trained in England, and his likely military successor General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani was trained in the U.S. Soon, however, that trust and fellow-feeling will no longer be available.

That is because of the estrangement between the U.S. and a rising generation of Pakistani officers. For about 10 years, the U.S. Congress barred contacts between American and Pakistani military officials as part of sanctions on Islamabad for pursuing nuclear weapons in the first place. In an ironic boomerang, it is now those officers, ascending to ever more senior ranks, who soon could be overseeing various elements of the Pakistani military, including the security of the several dozen atomic weapons Pakistan is believed to have in its arsenal. Their provincialism, U.S. officials fear, could make them sympathetic to the al-Qaeda and Taliban elements now roiling the country.

SO... HOW IS MUSHARRAF HANDLING THIS? HERE:

GULF TIMES: Pakistan warns of strong response to nukes grab

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s military vowed a strong response to any international attempt to seize its atomic arsenal as the army successfully test-fired a nuclear-capable cruise missile yesterday.

The security of Pakistan’s estimated 50 nuclear warheads has been under global scrutiny since President Pervez Musharraf imposed a state of emergency on November 3 citing Islamist violence and political turmoil.

But the chairman of Pakistan’s joint chiefs of staff, General Tariq Majid, blasted reports by “vested and hostile elements in the international media” about the security of its nuclear weapons, an army statement said.

“Suggestions have been made that our assets could either be neutralised or taken away towards safer place to prevent them from falling into wrong hands,” the statement quoted Majid as saying after witnessing the launch of the locally developed Babur (Hatf 7) cruise missile.

“We remain alert to such threats and are fully capable of handling these.”

The statement added: “Though no responsible state in the world can contemplate such an impossible operation, yet if someone did create such a scenario he was confident that Pakistan would meet the challenge strongly.

“Pakistan’s nuclear assets are very safe and secure, and the nation need not to worry on that account. There is a very strong security system in place, which can ward off all threats, internal as well as external.”

I HOPE SO.

BUT THIS SOUNDS A LITTLE TOO MUCH LIKE BRAGGADOCIO - ESPECIALLY COMING FROM AN ARMY THAT CAN'T SEEM TO DEFEAT THE TRIBAL THUGS IN THEIR OWN NATION....