BILL ROGGIO AGREES WITH RELIAPUNDIT: PAKISTAN IS NOW THE CENTRAL FRONT IN WW4

I HAVE BEEN BLOGGING THIS FOR A FEW WEEKS; (SEE HERE AND HERE AND HERE AND HERE):

BASICALLY I HAVE ARGUED THAT WITH AL QAEDA LOSING IN IRAQ, AND FEWER JIHADIS STREAMING IN TO IRAQ, PAKISTAN HAS BECOME - BY THE ENEMY'S CHOOSING - THE NEW CENTRAL FRONT IN WW4.

NEWSWEEK PUBLISHED AN ARTICLE AGREEING WITH ME LAST WEEK.

NOW BILL ROGGIO BASICALLY AGREES:

The situation in Pakistan has reached the stage where only drastic solutions hold out any hope of working. While there is a major difference between what is possible and what is practical, there is no other effective means to dislodge the core of al Qaeda’s leadership and their Taliban allies from the Northwest Frontier Province short of a real counterinsurgency campaign.

But how can al Qaeda be dislodged when US forces cannot enter Pakistan? The Pakistani government must come on board.

... nothing less than a war of subterfuge followed by a full-on counterinsurgency campaign in the Northwest Frontier Province can make a real difference. This campaign will be long, it will be bloody, and it will be unpopular in the US, in Pakistan, and in the international community. Depending on the level of support for the Taliban and al Qaeda among the Pashtun tribes, enemy casualties may approach near-genocidal proportions. Friendly casualties will be enormous.

The past six years have shown that half measures only embolden al Qaeda. The US can conduct pinpoint raids and airstrikes as much it likes, but the problem will not go away until the enemy is uprooted. Anything short of a full-scale counterinsurgency campaign will allow the Taliban and al Qaeda to retain their safe havens and terror camps, their breeding grounds for attacks against democracy. The major terror attacks in Madrid, London, Mumbai, as well as foiled plots in Denmark and the London Airline strike have all been traced back to Waziristan. Future attacks are being plotted there while Pakistan and the West sleeps.

BHUTTO AND MUSHARRAF MUST ATTACK THE ENEMY WITHIN PAKISTAN'S BORDERS AS WE SMASH THEM IN AFGHANISTAN'S EASTERN AND SOUTHERN REGIONS.

THIS COULD BE THE FINAL STAGE OF THE BATTLE WITH AL QAEDA, AND WE COULD DEMOLISH THEM BY NEXT SUMMER.

THUS LEAVING US FREE TO FACE DOWN IRAN.

BTW: I HAVE ARGUED FOR SOME TIME NOW THAT MUSHARRAF'S PAKISTAN HAS BEEN A GOOD ALLY - BETTER THAN CHIRAC'S FRANCE AND BETTER THAN TURKEY. MUSHARRAF HAS GOTTEN AN UNFAIR RAP AMONG MOST HAWKS IN THE BLOGOSPHERE - INCLUDING BILL ROGGIO.

SURE, MUSHARRAF HAS BEEN TOO SOFT ON THE ENEMY - BUT SO HAS GEORGE W BUSH!

I BELIEVE THAT HE AND BHUTTO WILL FIGHT AND WILL WIN.