CASUS BELLI IRAN

The threats are escalating: we have leaked that we have 2000 sites targeted and 10,00 smart missiles ready.

They now say they can launch 600 missiles against Israel.

Each side is warning the other side of the possible effects of going kinetic.

One thing I think is for sure: there will be no ultimatum this time - like we have Saddam.

We took MONTHS to build up troop levels in Kuwait and elsewhere as a means of ratcheting up pressure on Saddam, to make him file a truthful declaration, and to allow inspectors to re-enter Iraq and have a free hand once there.

Once it was PROVEN that he had failed to do either, we gave him ANOTHER 48 hours to leave. ONLY THEN - when Saddam failed to accept this ULTIMATUM - DID WE ATTACK.

Iran will get no such ultimatum. The assets we need to accomplish our mission are there now.

Our attack needs stealth and surprise to work well, and to limit Iran's ability to inflict countermeasures. Therefore expect no ultimatum. No USNCR with a final compliance date.

I expect a few more Western FM's to report that Iran has failed to meet its obligations and that this is unacceptable.

Then, I expect Bush to announce (end February) that the next attack on US troops in Iraq with an Iranian "co-factor" will be treated an act of war.

Then - without further notice, and ONLY announced AFTER the fact - WHAM!

The entire world will be shocked and awed.

More BG here.