CLIMATE STABILITY: AN INCONVENIENT PROOF

Excerpt from an academic journal article below:

(From: Proceedings of Civil Engineers 2007 160, No. CE2, 66-72 Paper 14806)

By David Bellamy and Jack Barrett

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates that the widely prophesied doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from natural, pre-industrial values will enhance the so-called 'greenhouse effect' but will amount to less than 1øC of global warming. It also points out that such a scenario is unlikely to arise given our limited reserves of fossil fuels-certainly not before the end of this century. Furthermore, the paper argues that general circulation models are as yet insufficiently accurate for civil engineers to rely on their predictions in any forward-planning decisions-the omission of solar wind effects being a potentially significant shortcoming. It concludes that the only certainty is that the world's fossil fuel resources are finite and should be used prudently and with proper respect to the environment.

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