Rational Choice

JR has posted some excerpts from a recent review of the Russian situation. Since I commented on that a few days ago I thought I'd add my 2¢s.

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Jeff Lukens writes in The American Thinker about the resurgence of Russia on the world scene and Putin's plan to revive Russia's fortunes goeopolitically, economically, and demographically.

Putin sees Russia's vast petroleum reserves as more than a means to economic growth, but as an avenue to superpower status once again. Last year, Russia was the second-highest oil producer in the world after Saudi Arabia. Their GDP has grown at an average rate of 5.5% since 2000, largely by energy exports.

So far so good. However, if oil prices fall as they surely will come the next recession, Russia and the oil exporters in general will be in a world of hurt.

Demographically, however, Russia is a nation that is slowly dying. The country has dwindling birthrates, and amazingly, declining life expectancy. That portends a bleak economic outlook unless they can leverage their energy resources to attain higher growth rates. This is Putin's strategy.

The demographic question is one that will not go away. In human society for a very long time children/family were a person's retirement and medical plan. With government's taking over that function the millenia long incentives we have had to live by are gone. Russia hopes to reverse the trend by improving economic conditions. I don't think it can work. However, we shall see.

In any case if they can keep raising their income for a while they will be at minimum a troublesome opposition.

So can we get along with the Russian Bear?

For its part, Washington may have unnecessarily provoked Putin as well.

Following 9/11, Putin agreed to allow Americans to stage the Afghanistan invasion from bases in former Soviet central Asian republics. Washington's reluctance now to depart from these bases has become troublesome to Moscow.

Overreach by NATO hasn't helped either. With China to the east, radical Islam to the south, and NATO's advancement from the west, Putin fears Russia is being threatened and encircled.

When the Soviet Army departed former Warsaw Pact countries in Eastern Europe, they were not expecting NATO to expand eastward. But that is exactly what happened. Not only did Poland and the Czech Republic join NATO, the former Soviet republics of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have joined too.

I believe the NATOization of the former satellites caused anger more due to the loss of military sales (loss of volume production/profits) than to the politico/military aspects. Of course loss of military sales also restricts the sphere of influence, so there are probably multiple aspects.

Ultimately Russia will hold whatever ground it can. Holding on to the former satellites was never an option.

All through Russian history the people have prefered authority over liberty as Jeff notes:

Most Russians would rather have a strong and secure nation than one that guarantees personal freedoms. This sentiment, and the growing economy, is the basis for Putin's broad popularity. A recent poll found only 16 percent of Russians surveyed want to see Western-style democracy remain in their country. Predictability is perhaps the greatest comfort to the average Russian.

Since winter time living in Russia is so precarious, perhaps trading Liberty for Security is a rational choice. It could also be a bargain with the devil who is now calling his note due.

Cross Posted at Power and Control