"ALL CAPS IN DEFENSE OF LIBERTY IS NO VICE."

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

IS A NUCLEAR WEAPONS ATTACK AGAINST BRITAIN IMMINENT?

I believe it is highly possible that terrorists, in Britain, are in possession of a nuclear bomb and are getting ready to use it. Here's why:



Back on Friday, December 15, 2006, I wrote a post in which I speculated that the death of former Soviet-spy Alexander Litvinenko was not a murder, but was instead, the result of his smuggling of Polonium 210 for use in a nuclear attack against the UK:


Nuclear weapons are, in some sense, unstable; they are said to decay over time, and become ineffective, if not properly maintained.

Now, I would imagine that not all the parts of a nuclear weapon decay at the same rate. For instance, we can assume the shell - which is probably made of metal or plastic - does not decay rapidly. So, it is something within the bomb which decays. Of course, heavy metals themselves are unstable and emit radiation, so it could be that more uranium or plutonium needs to be added to the core periodically. But, I don't have enough information to know if this is the case.



Here's what I do know, from what I have read about the Litvinenko case. Polonium 210 is the trigger that starts the chain reaction within the uranium or
plutonium core in a nuclear weapon. In other words, you have a core of plutonium or uranium and you need a trigger which is packed around the core, which itself explodes with enough force to compress the plutonium to the point that a chain reaction will ensue.


Could it be that Polonium 210 is the unstable element of a nuclear weapon which needs maintanence? Could it be that our Muslim friend Litvinenko was smuggling polonium into Britain so that they could bring an already existing nuclear device back into working form?




Now, when I wrote that post, I received some negative comments about my seemingly wild flight of fancy. Turns out that I am, more than likely, correct in my speculation. From Terrorism expert, Paul Williams (written December 6, 2006) whom I will be interviewing on my radio show this coming week:



The death of Alexander Litvinenko by radiological poisoning points to the possibility that the former Soviet spy may have been involved with Islamic terrorists in the preparation of tactical nuclear weapons for use in the jihad against the United States and its NATO allies.




Litvenenko, a former KGB agent, died in London on November 23 after ingesting a microscopic amount of polonium-210. In a deathbed statement, Litvinenko blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for the poisoning - - an accusation which the Kremlin has vehemently denied.



Litvinenko, who was born an orthodox Christian, was a convert to Islam with close ties to the Chechen rebels. His last words consisted of his desire to be buried “according to Muslim tradition.”


In recent years, considerable attention has been paid to suitcase nukes that were developed by U.S. and Soviet forces during the Cold War. Reliable sources, including Hans Blix of the United Nation, have confirmed that bin Laden purchased several of these devises from the Chechen rebels in 1996.

According to Sharif al-Masri and other al Qaeda operatives who have been taken into custody, several of these weapons have been forward deployed to the United States in preparation for al Qaeda’s next attack on American soil.

This brings us to the mysterious case of Litvinenko. The neutron source or “triggers” of the suitcase nukes are composed of beryllium-9 and polonium-210. When these two elements are combined, the alpha particle is absorbed by the nucleus of the beryllium causing it to decay by emitting a neutron. Such “triggers” were a feature of early nuclear weapons in the U.S. and Soviet stockpiles.

Polonium-210 has a half-life of 138 days, necessitating the replacement of the triggers every six months. (Read the rest.)
To add to your paranoia, I will also point out that several days ago it was revealed that British security forces are buying large amounts of special body bags, and radiation suits in preparation for what they termed a "dirty bomb attack."

But, the thing about "dirty bombs", or, in other words, radiological bombs is that as awful as they sound, they are simply a regular bomb with radiological material wrapped around the explosion device. So, in other words, the blast area of a radiological bomb would be no bigger than that of a regular bomb, which, in turn means that it is highly unlikely that any more people would die from a radiolical bomb than would from a conventional non-nuclear bomb.

In fact, if one compares them to Palestinian bombs which uses nails as shrapnel, it is possible that people would simply die a slower death after getting hit with the radiological material, than they would having gotten hit with nails.

A radiological, or "dirty bomb" would likely only cause a few hundred deaths, so why is Britain preparing for many thousands?

Now, to heap even more paranoia on you, please understand that the past few weeks, some rather alarming warnings have been coming out of the various parts of Britain's intelligence community. For instance, London's Chief of Police, Ian Blair recently was quoted saying:
‘It is a far graver threat in terms of civilians than either the Cold War or the Second World War,’ he said. ‘It’s a much graver threat than that posed by Irish Republican terrorism.’
ABC News has learned that al Qaeda operatives in the greater London area are being encouraged to “strike during the Christian holidays,” according to intelligence and law enforcement sources…

ABC News sources in North America and the U.K. say that British authorities are constantly on the run, breaking up plots on a near weekly basis that have reached the pre-operational phase.Sources in Britain add that at least one “pivotal…al Qaeda U.K.” operative has been detained during the past two weeks, and others may — at least temporarily — be in custody.
Police are trying to trace a gang of British Muslims who are thought to have returned to plot terror attacks in Britain after being trained abroad for more than a year by al-Qaeda, Nine Britons, all said to be in their twenties, were among a group of 12 Western recruits groomed by al-Qaeda at a secret camp near the Afghan border to set up new terror cells in London and other Western capitals.

Police do not know the real identities of this gang, who are known as the “English brothers” because of their shared language. As well as nine Britons, they include two Norwegians and an Australian who were smuggled into the Waziristan tribal region in Pakistan in October 2005.They are believed to have been under the command of an al-Qaeda veteran suspected of training some of the Britons accused of the alleged plot to blow up passenger planes flying to the US from Heathrow airport in the summer. ...

Intelligence sources in Pakistan said that the men are reported to have joined Taleban and al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan in attacks on Nato troops. The sources told The Times that the “brothers” were given religious indocrination as well as lessons on how to assemble suicide bomb vests and improvised explosive devices.

The sources are reported to have been escorted to the al-Qaeda camp by Adam Gadahn, a Californian indicted by the US authorities as an al-Qaeda terrorist, who introduced the “brothers” to their tutors.
When police release such specific information about potential suspects, we can assume it means they have lost control of the investigation and are, instead, attempting to scare the suspects into not acting by appearing to be within striking distance. Simply put, they would not release the information, if they knew where the "English brothers were, both physically and in terms of their ongoing terror plot.

Here are some questions to ponder: What date did Litvinenko bring that Polonium into Britain? And, when is 138 days after that? I would say it looks like the UK is in a heap of trouble.

_____________________________________________________
Reliapundit adds
: Fascinating post Pastorius - and quite possibly true.


I only wonder: What explains Berezovsky's interest in this? Why would he assist the enemy to blow up a nuclear device in England, his home? If Berezovsky and the Chechens really wanted to hurt Russia, then they would blow it up there, no? I think so. And how could the polonium get out of Russia WITHOUT Putin's KGB knowing? I do NOT think it could have.

And, why would Berezovsky be paying for Scaramella's lawyers? I only think he would do so if Scaramella was working for him, and if Scaramella threatened to out him, (like EH Hunt threatened Nixon).

MY BOTTOM LINE (as of now): I feel that Putin was behind this assassination. But if he wasn't, then I think it is more likely that Berezovsky was - only to step in and buy up all the real estate he could after a dirty bomb exploded. And he intended to blame it on the Chechens - YUP: double cross them. I think a nuclear device is the least likely of these three possibilities. But it is certainly possible. And, I sure hope that the British authorities have "gamed" the facts the way you have: IT'S BETTER TO BE SAFE THAN SORRY. Well done!

13 comments:

frankwolftown said...

Maybe Pat Robertson was half right.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/01/03/pat_robertson_predicts_mass_killing/

Pastorius said...

Yeah, I read that thing by Robertson this morning. God help us all when that guy is right about something. He kills his own credibility so often that it doesn't help him to be right about anything. No one will believe him.

reliapundit said...

maybe berezofsky was having litvinenko make a dirty bomb to blow up in london so he could buy all the real estate in the aftermath.

i mean: why else would berezofsky be paying for scaramella's lawyer?

reliapundit said...

pasto:

please tell me why else berezovsky would want a nuclear bomb to go off in london?
even if he supports the chechens to get back at his foe - putin, wouldn;lt it make more sense to blow up an anti-putin bomb in russia? or chechnya?

why would berezofsky help alqaeda?

i think he would not.

i think that IFF putin is not behind the assassination of litvinenko, that then berezofky is.

and if putin and the kgb were not behind the assassination, then who else would be able to get it out of russia!?!?

ypou thin poutin and his kgb friends arenplt in control over there!? you think they'd let some of their poloniuum get into berezovsky's hands!?!? or litvinenko's!?!?

ik donp;t.

putin is the most plausible perp - for revenge and to send a message.

then, berezovsky - for money.

please answer my questions.

berezofsky pays for the exiled chechen leaders home in london, too - the same building as the late litvinenko.

Pastorius said...

I don't have any idea whatBerezovsky's interest would be in getting involved in this. That's a good question.

By the way, please tell me if it is clear that this post is about the possibility of a fell-fledged nuclear bomb attack.

It seems that many people have been misunderstanding my post as being about a dirty bomb attack.

The evidence I present points away from the possibility that the Brits are concerned about a dirty bomb, because a dirty bomb would kill hundreds, while a suitcase nucleas weapon (which is really about as big as a 150 pound trunk) would kill thousands, perhaps, tens of thousands. In NYC it might kill hundreds of thousands.

reliapundit said...

it ius clear what you're driving at: a nuke.

i think a few dirty bombs using polonium would be PERFECT for berezovsky - if he were the evil genius behind this:
polonium has a short half-life. the real estate he could snap up in the aftermath of several dirty bombs going off would not stay contaminated for long.

my main point.feeling is that putin is behind it: the kgb would not allow this material out of the country for use by an enemy of russia. whether that enemy is chechnya or berezovsky.

i think litvinenko and berezovsky were out to get putin with dirt and putin got to litvninenko in a way that sends a powerful message to all the expat oligarchs and their ex-kgb henchmen.

Punditarian said...

Pastorius,

I thought your post was excellent, and the emphasis on the use of polonium-210 as the trigger of a thermonuclear explosion ("Atomic Bomb") was clear to me. I didn't know how atom bombs were actually put together, and the typical use of polonium-210 as the initial neutron source was new to me. I therefore found the evidence assembled in your post very concerning. You are right that many people reading about this keep coming back to the idea of the "dirty bomb" -- I don't think that is because your post is not clear, it's because they aren't reading carefully, and because they are "blocking" the idea of the possibility of a real nuke.

I think it is clear from the huge amounts of polonium-210 apparently involved that Litvinenko and his colleagues were assembling some sort of device. Reliapundit thinks it was a Russian-Mafia-oligarch dirty bomb, you suggest it was an Al Qaeda atomic bomb.

Berezovsky's involvement is unexplained, true. However, we may be seeing the evidence here of a number of different "plots" all operating at the same time, some of which involved the same personnel.

That is, don't you think it is plausible that Litvinenko was promising something to Berezovsky in exchange for his support, while promising something altogether different to the Chechens and to Al Qaeda? They are all playing their own games.

The fact that Berezovsky was involved in some way does not mean that Al Qaeda was not involved in some way.

And if Berezovsky is smart enough to know that the London real estate contaminated by a polonium dirty bomb would soon become clean, so would every other real estate speculator in London. He wouldn't be the sole beneficiary.

Here's what I think we can safely say:

1) Large, large amounts of polonium-210 were being smuggled over a period of weeks to months.

2) The polonium was being smuggled from Russia to London.

3) It was probably intended to be used in London.

4) Polonium is the trigger element in the sort of older "suitcase" nuke that we think Al Qaeda may have purchased from the Chechens.

Therefore your suggestion that Litvinenko --whatever his other entanglements-- was involved in the construction of a thermonuclear warhead for use in London does seem apropos.

Pastorius said...

Punditarian,
Thanks for the kind words.

Yes, this is all logical, but hopefully I am wrong, huh?

Jim C said...

Polonium is not so much the trigger as an intial neutron source to allow for variable geometries in the initial compression for smaller devices. It would also alter the likelyhood of a fizzle.

Great post

http://dcssec.blogspot.com/2007/01/update-on-polonium.html

Pastorius said...

Thanks for the clarification, Jim C.

I'll check out your post.

Jim C said...

Do you have a feed I can't find it on the left?

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