THE ASTUTE BLOGGERS

I think we should be aware of the CONTEXT of the recent outbreak of violence in Iraq: There has always been sectarian violence within Islam:

There has been Sunni versus Shia, all violence all over the world - in Pakistan, for instance; and there have also been persitient attacks against Sufis by Sunnis and Shias. Most importantly, there were 25 years of persistent Sunni violence against Shias in Iraq: Saddam committed genocide against the Shias who were un-armed then. Now, the difference is that the Shias are also armed (with guns and a major roles in SELF-RULE), and they are fighting back.

This violent sectarian strife - ALWAYS in the backround throughout the enitre Muslim world - was deliberately exacerbated in Iraq by the recent attack on the Shia mosque in Sammarra. But because the Shia led central government and Sistani - and even al Sadr - realize that an all-out sectarian war doesn't serve their goals, (but only the goals of the transnational jihadoterrorists), the Shias have restrained themselves. This means that a sectarian civil war in Iraq is highly unlikely. (The US military agrees.)

LOOK AT IT THIS WAY: The transnational jihadoterrorists hate - and would commit genocide against - ALL non-Muslims and ALL "non-radical Muslims" - favoring ONLY the Wahhabist/Salafist/Qutubists strain of Islam. Because the political and religious leaders of Iraq's two largest groups - the Kurds and the Shias - realize that this recent uptick in sectarian violence is merely the result of the incitement by the transnational jihadoterrorists, they will actively take actions to prevent a sectarian civil war from breaking out. The attack in Sammarra has therefore actually had the effect of STRENGTHENING federalism in Iraq. SO: Al Qaeda has failed again. They must be getting very frustrated and desperate; they must be asking themselves, "If blowing up one of the holiest Shia mosques doesn't create widespread violent chaos, then what can?"

Which means, I expect, they will try even more horrendous attacks in the days ahead. If not in Iraq, then in Jordan, Lebanon, Europe or Israel; (they might attempt to blow up the al Aksa mosque and blame it on Jews). Zawahiri's recent message reinforces this view. The enemy - more desperate than ever - is going to attempt something REALLY big. Stay tuned...