Russia's decision to cut gas imports to Ukraine is causing dismay across Europe, where supplies in a number of countries have been disrupted. The US has also expressed concern, saying the move raised "serious questions about the use of energy to exert political pressure".
Iran says its nuclear programme is for purely peaceful purposes Iran has dismissed a proposal that it conduct uranium enrichment in Russia as a way out of an impasse in talks over its controversial nuclear programme. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said it was not logical for any country to entrust its energy security to another state.
This seems WAY TOO too too too TOO coincidental for me. Russian COULD have postponed this decision, or "stair-stepped" the price increase (to GRADUALLY get Ukraine up to market price), or they could have given Ukraine the same price as Belarus.
INSTEAD, Putin - and Schroeder - decided to cut off Ukraine and create HUGE HEADLINES just after they offered their CLIENT STATE IRAN a supposed nuclesar enrichemtn deal to end the EU3-Iran nuclear stalemete. This WAY too convenient for Iran. And SEEMINGLY let's Russia off the hook; Putin can say, "Heck, we tried!"
Like hell they did. I am VERY skeptcial of Putin - and his bought-and-paid-for crony Schroeder. FACT: Putin is selling anti-aircraft missiles to Syria and Iran. FACT: Putin is helping Iran build their nuclear plants. And Putin also wants revenge for the Orange Revolution. This gas shut-off allows Putin to simultaneously screw Ukraine and give his Iranian client's an "out." It's a win-win for Putin.
This skeptical explanation BEST answers the most basic question when one ponders various - scenarios and various motives: "CUI BONO?" - which is Latin for "WHO BENEFITS?" - which is another way of saying "FOLLOW THE MONEY" - though in some cases the benefit ISN'T money. Sometimes it's POWER. And I think that Putin's methodical two-year state-takeover of the Russian energy industry - (a HUGE step back for the Russian economy and people - one which led a senior Putin aide to resign last week) - and his selling missiles to our enemies is nothing less than the first salvo in a ruthless Russian global power grab. (Earlier post HERE.)
NOTE/UPDATE: Remember: Iran needs to BUY TIME in order to finish up and make negotiations moot. Putin is OBVIOUSLY helping them buy time.
UPDATE 1/2/06: More HERE at BRUSSELS JOURNAL - who also remind us that the Soviets once deliberately starved MILLIONS of Ukrainians to death: "The result of the man-made famine of 1932-33 was the death of 7 million people. The famine was instigated by the Russians to break the spirit of the Ukrainians and force them into collectivisation and submission to Moscow."
And More HERE at the NYTIMES; (ASIDE: WALTER DURANTY was the NYTIMES reporter in the Soviet Union during 1932-33, and he deliberately covered up the Soviet genocide). NYT:
On the same day it throttled back its gas to Ukraine, Russia assumed the chairmanship of the Group of 8, the club for the world's large developed economies, promising to push the theme of "energy security." ... The State Department, expressing hope that the conflict would be resolved, said in a statement: "Such an abrupt step creates insecurity in the energy sector in the region and raises serious questions about the use of energy to exert political pressure. As we have told both Russia and Ukraine, we support a move toward market pricing for energy, but believe that such a change should be introduced over time rather than suddenly and unilaterally."The Soviet - ER UM I MEAN Russian - manuever seems diabolically duplicitous to me. MAYBE THEY SHOULD BE SUSPENDED FROM G8 MEMBERSHIP?! OR KICKED OUT!? And before you accuse me of being a HOTHEAD, let me remind you that McCain and Lieberman called for just this on February 20, 2005; CNN:
Mr. Putin has said that Russia's foreign policy will hinge on energy exports.
Top lawmakers called on President Bush to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin on several key fronts during a summit this week, with one senior Republican warning on Sunday that Putin "is on the verge of isolating himself." Sen. John McCain, an Arizona Republican, cited Putin's turns away from democracy in his country, his support for the original winner of the discredited Ukrainian election and his announcement last week that he did not believe Iran presents a nuclear threat. ...IMHO, things are WORSE now! Just last week - because of unrelated matter, which Putin was handling with the same ruthless tactics - DANIEL DREZNER asked:
McCain joined with Sen. Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut Democrat, in introducing legislation this past week calling on Bush to seek suspension of Russia's membership in the Group of Eight (G8) industrialized democracies. The two released a statement saying the step should be taken "until the Russian government ends its assault on democracy and political freedom."
- why is Russia still a member of the G-8?More on kicking Putin's Russia out of the G8 HERE.
It makes no sense from a liberal institutionalist perspective -- Russia has become less and less democratic over the past decade, and shows no sign under Vladimir Putin of trending in a constructive direction anytime soon.
It makes no sense from a realist pespective as well -- Russia is an economic lightweight with interests that diverge from the advanced industrialized nations in a number of areas. Russia so obviously does not belong in that grouping that it has never been allowed to participate in the most relevant G-7 grouping, that of the finance ministers.
Kicking Russia out of the G-8 would not necessarily accomplish a great deal -- it's not like Putin is suddenly going to smack himself on the forehead and say, "Gosh, you're right! I am monopolizing power within my country!" However, such a move would highlight the extent to which Russia has drifted away from the liberal democratic values it's government has lauded for fifteen years. It would not compromise any important component of U.S. foreign economic policy. And it might even revitalize a grouping that has been somewhat moribund during the Bush years.
8 comments:
But Iran reportedly said no thanks to Putin's enrichment deal...
to anonymous 329AM. WAKE UP!
i specifically suggest in this post that the putin offer to iran was phony, and that putin knew full and well whne he made the offer that he would use gas (energy) to threaten Ukriane, and thereby give Iran - his MAJOR client, and a key wedge against the USA - an out.
putin is helping iran build the nucke program. he doen;t care if iran has nuclear weapons.
sheesh.
these issues are two separate games
they are not dependant upon eachother...
Reliapundit,
I see what you mean. First time I read the post I didn't quite understand. Really, couldn't it be that Russia knew they wanted Iran to reject the offer, so that Iran will buy even more equipment from Russia. And then , in this scenario, the Ukraine thing doesn't really give Iran an out, so much as it just, as you say, throws up a smokescreen. In other words, there is bigger news this week than Iran's rejection of Russia's "offer."
The eyes of the world, and especially of Europe are focused on Russian oil, not on Iranian nukes. In fact, Russia has Europe on their knees, and this is the last time they are going to act tough with Russia.
You pieced that together well.
I'm going to put this up over at IBA.
russia uses energy as a weapon - screwing ukraine and giving iran an obvious out.
putin is using energy as a wedge to expand russian hegemony.
just as he uses missile sales to syria and iran and nuke powerplant sales to iran.
these policies are NOTY pout together by putin willy-nilly: they are coordinated effort/5 year plan to make russia a world power again.
by expanding their hegemony in ways that limits the USA - and the EU.
remember: iran needs to BUY TIME to finish up and make negotiations moot.
putin is OBVIOUSLY helping them buy time.
first of all the russian shut down of the gas supply to ukraine was done to expose the fact that the ukranians have been siphoning off the exports to europe for years - at least thats what Gasprom claims.
Its not suprising that the ruskies would interfere with a free market...but whats wrong with expecting the ukranians to pay a fair market price for their energy?
Of course the ukranians should also benefit from the energy that transits their territory on the way to the european markets...
One thing Putin has made clear to the world is that he's got Europe by the proverbial balls and they won't risk having to wear a sweater indoors to prevent Iran from getting the bomb.
But is that anything new? The continental europeans have been weak or unfaithful allies for years!
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