Sunday, January 15, 2006
HOW SHOULD WE STOP IRAN'S NUKE PROGRAM: SANCTIONS OR A PREEMPTIVE STRIKE?
A couple of YEARS ago, Iran was caught violating the NPT and lying to the IAEA for 18 years.
Now Iran has burned all its bridges by opening all the IAEA seals and going ahead with uranium enrichment despite multilateral negotiations aimed at allowing Iran to expand its nuclear power production and even buy lots of enriched uranium and expanding Iran's economic relationships with the West, without letting them enrich their own urianium. The HOOK was, the IAEA had to be allowed to inspoect Iran's nuclear infrastructure periodically in order to make sure nothing was being divwerted for the production of BOMBS.
(For those folks who feel that we are being unfair to Iran: Even Sweden - a highly advanced nuclear power producing nation - doesn't enrich their own uranium; they buy it from an international consortium.)
Well, now that Iran has taken unilateral actions which make further negotiations MEANINGLESS, WHAT SHOULD WE DO!?
We could go to the UN Security and get sanctions against Iran. The sanctions would mean that they couldn't sell anything EXCEPT oil, and then only through a special program administered by the UN, which would also make sure that Iran didn't use the proveeds of those sales for anything except food and medicine. We could call it the UN OIL FOR FOOD PROGRAM.
OH.... SORRY... YOU'RE RIGHT: we tried sanctions like that once, and it failed.
Okay, then. Since we know that doesn't work, why wait? Why postpone the INEVITABLE!? LET'S LAUNCH MISSILES ASAP.
Getting the IAEA to refer it to the UNSC and then trying to get the UNSC to approve sanctions is POINTLESS, except as a way to prove (to people prone to appeasement) that we are reasonable and have tried EVERYTHING, and the Iranians are unreasonable. BUT DON'T WE KNOW THAT ALREADY!? We sure do. So, let's forget the "PR" and do the right thing: obliterate Iran's nuclear infrastructure NOW.
Some worry that a preemtive airstrike would lead to a major spike up in oil prices. BUT NOW, THE IRANIANS HAVE THREATENED TO RADICALLY RAISE OIL PRICES IF WE ENACT SANCTIONS! So, you see: there's NOTHING for us to lose by uasing military force, and lots to gain: It's the ONLY way to guarantee that the the Iranian Mullah tyrants don't get a nuke.
UPDATE - 1/16/06: It looks to me like Russia is HELPING IRAN with stalling tactics (perhaps in the hope of delaying any pre-emptive attack until it's too late and Iran HAS either a nuclear bomb, or at least much more hardened air-defenses - which, may I point out, THEY'RE BUYING FROM PUTIN!):
I DON'T TRUST PUTIN.Now Iran has burned all its bridges by opening all the IAEA seals and going ahead with uranium enrichment despite multilateral negotiations aimed at allowing Iran to expand its nuclear power production and even buy lots of enriched uranium and expanding Iran's economic relationships with the West, without letting them enrich their own urianium. The HOOK was, the IAEA had to be allowed to inspoect Iran's nuclear infrastructure periodically in order to make sure nothing was being divwerted for the production of BOMBS.
(For those folks who feel that we are being unfair to Iran: Even Sweden - a highly advanced nuclear power producing nation - doesn't enrich their own uranium; they buy it from an international consortium.)
Well, now that Iran has taken unilateral actions which make further negotiations MEANINGLESS, WHAT SHOULD WE DO!?
We could go to the UN Security and get sanctions against Iran. The sanctions would mean that they couldn't sell anything EXCEPT oil, and then only through a special program administered by the UN, which would also make sure that Iran didn't use the proveeds of those sales for anything except food and medicine. We could call it the UN OIL FOR FOOD PROGRAM.
OH.... SORRY... YOU'RE RIGHT: we tried sanctions like that once, and it failed.
Okay, then. Since we know that doesn't work, why wait? Why postpone the INEVITABLE!? LET'S LAUNCH MISSILES ASAP.
Getting the IAEA to refer it to the UNSC and then trying to get the UNSC to approve sanctions is POINTLESS, except as a way to prove (to people prone to appeasement) that we are reasonable and have tried EVERYTHING, and the Iranians are unreasonable. BUT DON'T WE KNOW THAT ALREADY!? We sure do. So, let's forget the "PR" and do the right thing: obliterate Iran's nuclear infrastructure NOW.
Some worry that a preemtive airstrike would lead to a major spike up in oil prices. BUT NOW, THE IRANIANS HAVE THREATENED TO RADICALLY RAISE OIL PRICES IF WE ENACT SANCTIONS! So, you see: there's NOTHING for us to lose by uasing military force, and lots to gain: It's the ONLY way to guarantee that the the Iranian Mullah tyrants don't get a nuke.
UPDATE - 1/16/06: It looks to me like Russia is HELPING IRAN with stalling tactics (perhaps in the hope of delaying any pre-emptive attack until it's too late and Iran HAS either a nuclear bomb, or at least much more hardened air-defenses - which, may I point out, THEY'RE BUYING FROM PUTIN!):
BBC:Russian President Vladimir Putin has hinted compromise is still possible on Iran's controversial nuclear programme. He said Iran had not rejected a Russian offer to enrich uranium for its nuclear programme - which would make it harder for Iran to make nuclear weapons. He was speaking as top Western nations tried to persuade Russia and China to support a hard line on Iran, which insists its programme is not military.
BLOGROLL US!
