BUSH'S "LEBANESE SQUEEZE-PLAY" CRUCIAL IN "GWOT"

UPDATE - 3/8: Welcome CHRENKOFF readers (and if you're not one yet YOU SHOULD BE - EVERYDAY! And while you're here, please check out a few other posts.

UPI: ALGIERS, Algeria, March 5 :

Top Syrian official said Saturday the United States asked Syria to disarm the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah guerilla organization. Syrian Information Minister Mehdi Dakhlallah told the government-run Algerian Radio that Washington asked Syria "for many things that have nothing to do with international peace, demanding things we have nothing to do with like disarming the Lebanese resistance," in clear reference to Hezbollah. He insisted this was a purely Lebanese issue and had nothing to do with Syria.

In my opinion, this means that ONLY if Syria pulls out ALL of its forces - military and secret police - can they get "off the hook" for this demand. Which is why it was made: it ramps up the pressure on Syria to withdraw - even if it means they abandon Hizballah (leaving it only a client of Iran).

If Assad withdraws (which - due to the Bush Doctrine - is now LIKELY), then I PREDICT that the Bush Administration will make the following two NEW demands: (a) that Hizballah be kept off the ballot of the impending Lebanese election UNLESS they disarm; (b) that if Hizballah refuses to disarm VOLUNTARILY, that any new Lebanese government forcibly disarms them.

These two demands will be made possible IF AND ONLY IF France and the UK allow the EU and the UN to classify Hizballah as an international terrorist organization - which now, ACCORDING TO THIS REPORT seems likely.

In addition, according to this report from HAARETZ, Israel is now demanding that IRANIAN MILITARY FORCES EVACUATE LEBANON:

Israel's official position is that the Syrian forces deployed in Lebanon are not the only foreign army in that country. Despite the fact that the Syrian force is a large one, and includes numerous units and an extensive intelligence set-up, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards play a significant and negative military role in Lebanon - a role that undermines Lebanese sovereignty.

I predict that (with the help of France - YUP FRANCE, believe it or not) the UNSC will reiterate the demand (already contained within UNSC #1559) that Iran voluntarily remove their forces from Lebanon. And that Iran will do so.

(If Iran won't withdraw NOW, then this will mean MORE SEVERE UNSC SANCTIONS - followed by WAR if Iran continues to keep the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Lebanon AFTER the Lebanese elections. Lebanon will try to expel them, and this could foment another WAR in Lebanon - only this time the Druze, Christians, and Sunnis will have US Joint Forces support against the Shias and the Iranian backed Hizballah, so this time around, the Shia/Iran strongholds will be destroyed much in the way Fallujah was - and just as quickly.)

The strategy behind these moves is CLEAR: By clearing out Lebanon, BUSH would accomplish TWO HUGE THINGS: (1) improve the chances of a peaceful settlement between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs - IMMENSELY; and (2) considerably weaken both Syria and Iran - by hemming them in even more than they are now (because of the presence of USA forces in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean).

These two accomplishments - a comprehensive Israeli-Arab peace settlement (sans Syria), and further isolation of Syria and Iran - will strengthen our diplomatic efforts at regime change in both Syria and Iran.

Which is why I predict ORANGE REVOLUTIONS in Syria AND Iran by next autumn - with or without war.