WHAT THE CANDIDATES ARE EACH REALLY SELLING - IN A NUTSHELL

• Obama is selling confidence.

He's the smooth talking con-man. "SNAKE OIL ANYONE? TUNE IN, TURN ON, VOTE OBAMA!"

• Hillary is selling paternalism.

She's the nanny of the nanny-state. "ORGANIC HERBAL ENEMAS ANYONE? IT'S FOR YOUR OWN GOOD!"

• McCain is selling his toughness.

He's a tough SOB ready to do whatever it takes to defend you in this crazy world we live in. "DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT MESSING WITH THE USA!"

The winner will be the one who convinces the most voters that his version of the world jibes with theirs.

• Obama blames Bush and argues his youth, loquacity and charm will change the world.

• Hillary blames Bush and argues that her experience and tenacity will get you the government programs you want - and that other people will pay for them.

• McCain argues that the real challenges we face were not caused by Bush and can't be surmounted by charm or government handouts, but by toughness and commitment to principles.
  

Only one of these candidates is making a realistic argument.

If the electorate is realistic then McCain will be elected.

If the electorate wants to take a flight from reality - a holiday from history as it has often been called of late - then either Hillary or Obama can win.

• Obama and Hillary will counter that McCain is a scaremonger/warmonger who represents the failed policies of the past 8 years.

• McCain will argue that Obama and/or Hillary represent the failed policies of the pre-Reagan/Thatcher Era, that Bill ran as a moderate/centrist, and that his long career of creating bi-partisan legislation proves he is the real centrist.

EVENTS OUTSIDE THE CONTROL OF ANY CANDIDATE MAY BE DETERMINATIVE:

• If the war stays on course, and the economy strengthens, then McCain could win 40 states.
• If the war worsens and the economy weakens, then Obama or Hillary could win big.
• If another major front in the war starts before the election, the McCain might be seen as the only reliable Commander on Chief.