Peter Wallison - AEI/TCS DAILY:
... because weakening the will of the American people is the only way that al-Qaeda and our other opponents in Iraq can hope to win, between now and September we will see an all-out effort to inflict heavy casualties on our troops and on Iraqi civilians.NOTE/REPEAT: "A series of spectacular and dramatic attacks..."
Unfortunately [for us], this can be a winning strategy [for them].
If we are unprepared for it, a bad August and early September could still lead to a collapse in public support that would even sweep congressional Republicans with it.
We should not forget that the North Vietnamese Tet offensive of 1968—although it resulted ultimately in a military defeat for the North—became a turning point in the war because it destroyed the American public's belief in our ultimate military success.
A series of spectacular and dramatic attacks could do the same for our enemies in Iraq. They know that, and we should expect them to try.
But if these attacks do not occur—or if they do and are quickly quelled—the success of the surge will be an inconvenient political truth that many in the Democratic party will not easily survive.
I think these are to be expected - and not just in Iraq, but in the region, in Europe, and even here in the USA.
I think it will be coordinated with a TWO-FRONT attack on Israel, from Gaza/Hamas and Hizballah/Lebanon.
If I had to guess what type of attack it will be, I'D GUESS a coordinated series of NIGHT-TIME attacks on commercial jets approaching or just leaving airports - attacked with missiles fired from shoulder-firing missile launchers. Just a guess based on this.
It will be timed to come as close to Petraeus's report as possible - so as to effect the resolve of Congress.
And I expect the Left and the party they dominate - the Democrat party - to BLAME BUSH and argue that it's proof that the Iraq War did not make us safer.
I pray that we don;t give up - whether or not the enemy attempts to ratchet up things, or not.
There is only one good way to "end a war" - BY WINNING.