Friday, November 18, 2005


"... a 9-year-old boy from ... Hunan ... Was hospitalized with respiratory symptoms on 17 October and has since returned home, fully recovered. ... the boy's 12-year-old sister ... was hospitalized on 16 October and died the following day of severe bilateral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome. "

The above description in the latest WHO report on H5N1 raises the possibility of human-to-human transmission in the first reported familial cluster in China.

Although hospital admissions were just one day apart, media reports indicate the brother did nor develop symptoms until the day his sister died. Media reports indicate that family's chickens began to die on 6 October and the sister developed symptoms a few days later.

Thus, the brother did not develop symptoms until 5-10 days after his sister. This gap in disease onset dates is a common feature of human-to-human transmission, and supports boxun reports that indicate human-to-human transmission is widespread in China. ...

The boxun reports do show the highest number of human cases (Qinghai (143 deaths), Liaoning (69 deaths), Inner Mongolia (28 deaths), Hubei (25 deaths), Xinjiang (18 deaths), Hunan (8 deaths)) in the regions reporting wild bird linked poultry outbreaks, supporting the notion that human-to-human transmission of H5N1 in China is significantly more common than has been reported by China or mainstream media.

Well, well, well. If this suspicion is true, it is only a matter of time... Soon China may quarantine itself. And the shock to world economy will be... well severe. And of course, the flu will spread, too. Dear, dear... I fear this WILL be as serious as some have predicted.

UPDATE: SAPA/AP: According to W.H.O., there is no evidence that the bird flu is human-to-human yet - and they site the same case: "it sees no evidence of human-to-human transmission of bird flu in China's newly reported cases in people. "There is not any evidence for human transmission so far," said Henk Bekedam, the WHO representative in China. "If there would be something like that, we would expect more people would be unexpectedly dying of very severe pneumonia." ... Asked whether there was any sign that China might be facing a human pandemic of the virus, Bekedam said: "If there's evidence of human-to-human transmission, there will be small clusters. We are not at that stage."

Here's an article on Dr. Niman - who is making the more dire analysis of what's happening now in China ;(I link to his site above, leading this post). He also has a most dire prediction of what will happen globally - SOON .

Whom should we believe - WHO or Niman? TIME WILL TELL - very soon...

UPDATE #2: Are WHO and CHINA attempting to quarantine and cover-up a Human2human outbreak? (AFP via Breitbart; hat tip Drudge):

Chinese authorities had locked down the village in eastern Anhui province here a 24-year-old pregnant woman died of bird flu last week, becoming the nation's first confirmed human fatality from the virus. Several local officials in red arm bands were posted as sentries at the narrow dirt road entrance to Yantan, a small village of a few thousand residents in Zhoutan township where Zhou Maoya died on November 10.

The officials refused to answer questions, other than admitting that Yantan was where Zhou had died of avian flu and insisting that only local residents were allowed in and out of the village. "Don't come around asking questions about bird flu. If you want to understand the bird situation here you must go to the local government," said an official. Police then followed an AFP journalist several kilometres (miles) out of the area.

Seems like a cover-up to me - to avoid starting a panic - in case this is NOT the beginning of H2H bird flu, probably...

1 comment:

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