Wednesday, January 05, 2005

PREDICTION: McCain will determine the outcome of the Gonzales nomination

My first prediction of 2005: McCain will be the deciding factor in the Gonzales nomination battle. For two obvious reasons: (1) The Old Media and the Democrats love him and give him much sway. (2) He was a POW who was REALLY tortured.

How will he use this gravitas? Will he see Gitmo for what it is: a place where terrorists (NOT covered by any treaty and legally NOT POWS) have been getting moderately coercive treatment? Or will he get on is high horse and claim that it doesn't matter if the Gitmo detainees are terrorists or enemy comabatants or whether they're covered by Geneva or not: we mustn't "torture" them in any way shape or form - even mildy by making them stand all day and listen to bad music.

If McCain is half the opportunist some think he is, he may think he can get ahead by dumping on Gonzales.

But I think if Bush signals he will go to the mats for Gonzales that then... McCain will realize he can lose more (in terms of 2008) on the GOP-side than he can gain on the DNC side, and that he will back Gonzales.

Of course... McCain will make Bush and Gonzales sweat it out - even court him. But in the end McCain will do the right thing and support Gonzales. That will squelch the debate and assure Gonzales confirmation.

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