For those of us who are following this election closely, the following links might be of interest:
Sean Malstrom has a thorough analysis. He has noticed that neither the McCain nor the Obama campaigns seem to think that the publicly available polls have any validity. Remember that nearly all of the predictions you see, and also the results of the legal betting sites, are based on those polls. And it has been shown repeatedly that the publicly available polls exhibit significant methodological deficiencies.
Paul Marston is predicting a landslide for McCain-Palin! The major factor in his analysis is that the disaffected Hillary Clinton voters (the PUMAs) are ignored by all of the polls, and that the defection of so many Democrat voters is historically unprecedented. He is an experienced political analyst, and he gives detailed figures to back up his perceptions.
By all accounts, voter turnout is extraordinary -- everywhere. On balance, I think that is a plus for McCain. His voters are likely under-represented in the polling data.
Sean Malstrom has a thorough analysis. He has noticed that neither the McCain nor the Obama campaigns seem to think that the publicly available polls have any validity. Remember that nearly all of the predictions you see, and also the results of the legal betting sites, are based on those polls. And it has been shown repeatedly that the publicly available polls exhibit significant methodological deficiencies.
Paul Marston is predicting a landslide for McCain-Palin! The major factor in his analysis is that the disaffected Hillary Clinton voters (the PUMAs) are ignored by all of the polls, and that the defection of so many Democrat voters is historically unprecedented. He is an experienced political analyst, and he gives detailed figures to back up his perceptions.
By all accounts, voter turnout is extraordinary -- everywhere. On balance, I think that is a plus for McCain. His voters are likely under-represented in the polling data.
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