THE DEMISE OF SOCIALISM - OR WHY ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL APPEASEMENT IS DOOMED

For many, Sweden epitomizes the socialist dream: Swedes have cradle-to-grave welfare, libertinage, multi-culturalism and its concomittant moral relativism. ALL ARE DESTROYING SWEDEN. They also have a huge problem with their Muslim "colonists" and ignore it.

Here are some economic Facts (excerpted from an article by Richard Murray is chief economist at the Swedish Agency for Public Management):

At 51.2 per cent in 2003, Sweden's ratio of tax receipts to GDP is the highest in the world. The comparable average for European Union (EU) countries is about 40 per cent of GDP. In Canada and Britain, the ratio is less than 40 per cent. In some industrial countries, such as the United States, it is less than 30 per cent. The high figure for Sweden is in part (4 percentage points) explained by transfers that are taxed.

In the past, rising taxes enabled the growth of public services, social benefits and public investments. Between 1960 and 1980, Swedish taxes as a share of GDP doubled, from roughly 25 to 50 per cent of GDE Since then, the ratio of tax revenues to GDP has been fairly constant, which means that changes in tax rates have not contributed to the growth of public services from 1980 onwards. This may come as a surprise to both proponents and critics of Sweden's high-tax society. ...

Growth in Sweden, as in many European countries, has been "jobless." The total number of hours worked in the Swedish economy is the same today as in 1965. This is so despite an impressive increase in real GDP, and despite an increase in population and in the number of those employed - especially women. The increase in number of employed has been offset by a reduction in number of hours worked per employee as a result of longer holidays, earlier retirement, more absence from work and other changes. ...

From the above evidence, we get a picture of the Swedish welfare state at the end of the road. Further development seems out of the question.

What drove the USSR and Maoist China and Ireland and India and even friggin VIETNAM to abandon much of socialisim is at play in Sweden and the rest of socialist Europe - and the rest of the socialist world, for that matter: a combination of tax rates which have topped-out and bad demographics plus global competition is making socialist nations as economically bankrupt as they are morally bankrupt.

THE JIG IS UP: they can no longer tax their way into solvency or grow their way into it.

When their government's finances collapse - as they are bound to within the next decade, the socialist nations will have even tougher choices, AND THEY WON'T BE ABLE TO BLAME BUSH AND THE GOP. Socialism will finally be consigned to the trashheap of history - where it belongs. GOOD RIDDANCE.

Of course, there is a chance that ISLAMOFASCISTS WILL FILL THE VACUUM: the Europeans may either choose it, or have it forced upon them by the burgeoning Muslim population.

Europe needs to get REAGANIZED and/or THATCHERIZED, and fast. The fact that Italy chose the socialsit Prodi and Spain the socialist Zapatero does not bode well - not for Europe on the economic front, or in the GWOT, as these very same socialists are the chief advocates of APPEASEMENT.

IS THIS A COINCIDENCE!? NO: IT IS NOT.

SOCIALISTS APPEASE PROBLEMS AND DO NOT SEEK TO SOLVE THEM AT THEIR ROOT CAUSES.

THEY SEEK TO AMELIOLRATE POVERTY BY APPEASING IT, BY HANDING OUT WELFARE CHECKS - (INSTEAD OF BY CUTTING TAXES, TARIFFS, AND PROMOTING ECONOMIC GROWTH AND GLOBALISM AND INDUSTRIALIZATION).

THEY ALSO SEEK TO APPEASE THE JIHADISTS.

Appeasement is a primary way Leftists deal with problems in the world. DHIMMITUDE and the WELFARE STATE reflect a deep attitude or weltanschauung of Leftists. They appeased the USSR, and appeased Arafat. And they appease poverty.

In all of human history, appeasement has never defeated ANY enemy. It never will because it can't.

That's why, to make poverty history, we have to make SOCIALISM history.

And to win the GWOT overseas, we have to defeat the DHIMMIS at home.

THEY'RE THE SAME PEOPLE.

BOTTOM-LINE ON THE 500 SARIN ARTILLERY SHELLS REVEALED BY SANTORUM AND HOEKSTRA

Santorum and Hoekstra - and others - say that the existence of these 500 shells proves that there were WMD stockpiles in Iraq, and that it matters not when the WMD's were made.

Others say, (paraphrasing), "NO; they were so degraded they were harmless." Some conservatives are just underwhelmed.

HARMLESS?! Maybe yes; maybe no. As TKS/NRO said: OKAY, THEN YOU OPEN THEM!" Heh.

But this is the BOTTOM-LINE:

UNSCR #1441 DEMANDED that Saddam make a full and final declaration of all of his WMD's.

The INSPECTORS were meant to be auditors (not detectives) who would examine that FULL & FINAL declaration and verify it.

The fact that MANY WMD ITEMS - these 500 WMD artillery shells, and parts for NUCLEAR CENTRIFUGES, for example - were found in Iraq, and WERE NOT DECLARED BY SADDAM, PROVES BEYOND A SHADOW OF A DOUBT, BEYOND ANY REASONABLE DOUBT, BEYOND ANY DOUBT AT ALL, THAT SADDAM'S DECLARATION WAS NOT "FULL & FINAL", BUT PARTIAL, OBFUSCATORY, AND A DIRECT VIOLATION OF THE HEART & SOUL OF UNSCR #1441.

UNSCR #1441 was EXPLICITLY, OVERTLY, SIMPLY, UNALTERABLY, AND OBVIOUSLY MEANT AS SADDAM'S LAST CHANCE.

The UNSC could not pass mo' tougher sanctions, or do anything else short of what the USA and the COALITION OF THE WILLING ultimately did do: attack Saddam, and dethrone this lying, genocidal, terrorist-supporting tyrant.

If those on the so-called "anti-war" side think that a more sternly worded warning than UNSC #1441 would have done ANYTHING, then they are even stupider than I have ever imagined. Or could imagine.

Saddam's decision to LIE AND NOT COMPLY with UNSCR #1441 was the reason we HAD TO GO TO WAR. The 500 WMD artillery shells found in Iraq since 2003 proves this. We should all thank Santorum and Hoekstra for putting more of the proof on the table. For all to see.

Only dingbats of denial - blinded by BDS, or by delusions of "peace through isolationism, appeasement and retreat" - refuse to see what is as plain as day - AND UTTERLY UNDENIABLE: THE WAR WAS RIGHT, LEGAL, JUST, AND A POWERFUL MESSAGE TO OUR ENEMIES: "Don't tread on me, the law, or the truth."

[ASIDE: STRATEGYPAGE posits an explanation for the DOD's three year old policy for obfuscating the existence of these shells.]

UPDATE: The shells are still deadly - according to the BBC.

RELIAPUNDIT SCOOPS NYTIMES ON BIRD FLU

TODAY'S NYTIMES:

An Indonesian man who died of H5N1 bird flu caught it from his 10-year-old son, the first laboratory-confirmed case of human-to-human transmission of the disease, according to a World Health Organization investigation of an unusual family cluster of bird-flu cases.

RELIAPUNDIT REPORTED THIS 2 DAYS AGO, ON WEDNESDAY.

This proves once again that THE ASTUTE BLOGGER gives you IMPORTANT BREAKING NEWS AND ANALYSIS BEFORE THE NYTIMES DOES, AND WITHOUT ANY TRAITOROUS LEAKING OF VITAL NATIONAL SECURITY DATA, EITHER!

NYTIMES: TRAITORS IN WAR-TIME WHO SHOULD BE SHOT

PINCH SULZBERGER AND BILL KELLER - THE PUBLISHER/OWNER AND THE EDITOR OF THE NYTIMES - ARE TRAITOROUS SCUM WHO SHOULD BE CHARGED, TRIED, CONVICTED AND EXECUTED.

Here's a link to the article. I read it. It made me sick: maybe we shouldn't bother with a trial! After all THEY CONFESS:

Bill Keller, the newspaper's executive editor, said: "We have listened closely to the administration's arguments for withholding this information, and given them the most serious and respectful consideration. We remain convinced that the administration's extraordinary access to this vast repository of international financial data, however carefully targeted use of it may be, is a matter of public interest."

Terrorists planning attacks against our TROOPS and our allies and US DO NOT HAVE THE RIGHT TO KNOW! But now they do know. Courtesy of the godless anti-American pro-socialism traitorous scum of the NYTIMES.

Where do traitorous scumbags like Keller get the idea that they have more power authority and insight than the populary elected WAR-TIME president of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, and his Congressionally confirmed Cabinet members!? Sheesh.

Keller and Pinch are UNELECTED leaders of a now second-rate rag-sheet. They have no right to assume ABSOLUTE POWER over NATIONAL SECURITY SECRETS! They have no right to determine what is a proper secret and what is not. WHAT EGOMANIACAL SCUM!

I wouldn't even let Keller or Pinch have a blindfold.

AP/MSM: "Study Says Earth's Temp at 400-Year High"

Econazis admit: it WAS this warm 400 years ago.

Er, um.... so: what kind of SUV did your great-great-great-great-great-great-great-
great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-grandfather drive?!

BOTTOM-LINE: the folks who believe that current global-warming is man-made are idiots.

FRANK CAPRA, GEORGE BAILEY, AND "CHICKENHAWKS "

One of the greatest movies of all-time it IT'S A WONDERFUL LIFE. It was co-written and directed by Frank Capra, and starred Jimmy Stewart as George Bailey. Jimmy Stewart said it was his favorite movie, and felt it'd been so popular for so many decades because it fulfilled a basic wish almost all of us have: "To see what the world would've been like had we never been born, and to find out that it's a better place because we are here."

The movie is about a character named George Bailey, whose life-story spans from 1900 to 1945. He's someone who's put is own dreams on the back-burner his whole life. George wanted to become an adventurer and a globe-trotter and then return and go to college, and become an architect/builder of magnificent edifices.

He ended up not travelling, not going to college, and merely taking over the family business, and "merely" becoming a husband and "merely" a father and and "merely" a "local community leader." (SYNOPSIS and MORE MOVIE INFO/TRIVIA/LINKS HERE.)

Well... George's younger brother, Harry, does go to college, marries a millionairess, and comes home from the war (WW2) a decorated war hero - winner of the Congressional Medal of Honor. George isn't jealous; he's proud - as is the whole Bailey clan. Uncle Billy Bailey brags to the Bailey clan's nemesis - the evil banker Mr. Potter - about his nephew Harry Bailey's heroism. Potter counters by calling George a slacker on account of the fact that George was 4F (because George was deaf in one ear as a result of an infection he got when he dove into a freezing river to save his kid brother's life when they were young boys).

Uncle Billy's reply to Potter's attack on George is one that all people accused of being CHICKENHAWKS (by moonbats and nutroots and BDS-afflicted anti-war people) should remember. Here's the exchange:

UNCLE BILLY
(showing POTTER a newspaper with a HEADLINE about Harry's Medal)
Well, well, well, Harry Bailey wins Congressional Medal. Hmm. That couldn't be one of the Bailey Boys, could it!? You just can't keep those Bailey's down, now can you Mr. Potter!?

POTTER
How does SLACKER George feel about it?

UNCLE BILLY
Very jealous, very jealous: he only lost three buttons off his vest!
Of course, "slacker George" would've won TWO of those medals if he'd gone.

POTTER
(sarcastically)
Bad ear...

UNCLE BILLY
Yes. After all Potter, some people like George HAD to stay home: not every HEEL was in Germany and Japan!

There are HEELS at home now, too. And those of us who support OUR side in the GWOT can contribute to the cause by fighting these HEELS and vigorously defending our side's goals. Just like George did.

ANOTHER BIG SCOOP FOR RELIAPUNDIT: TODAY THE WASHINGTON TIMES OPINED ON MURTHAGATE; I BLOGGED IT ON 11/20/05 - 7 MONTHS AGO

YUP, WHAT THE WASHINGTON TIMES HAD TODAY, RELIAPUNDIT WROTE ABOUT SEVEN MONTHS AGO: MURTHA IS A CORRUPT CROOK!

AND LUCIANNE LINKED TO IT. AND MIKE SAVAGE TALKED ABOUT IT TONIGHT.

THIS IS MORE PROOF THAT YOU MUST READ THE ASTUTE BLOGGER EVERYDAY!

EVEN MORE PROOF BELOW...

(Others reporting this MONTHS AFTER Reliapundit HERE.)

EVEN MORE PROOF THAT WE'RE WINNING IN IRAQ

ONLY THE MOONBATS THINK WE'RE LOSING - AND THEN THEY PROPOSE DOING WHAT THE ENEMY WANTS US TO DO : RETREAT!

The OVERWHLEMING MAJORITY of Iraqis - 77% OVERALL, but 95% of the Kurds and Shias - believe we are winning, and that their lives are better and getting better all the time and that their future is better now than under Saddam.

VIA GATEWAY PUNDIT:

To give one relevant example, a recent Brookings Institute report on Iraq, shows the majority (yes, that means more than 50%) of Iraqis are living fairly safe and secure lives:

"Insurgent attacks tended to be concentrated (85%) in 4 of 18 provinces. These provinces contain less than 42% of the Iraqi population. Half of the Iraqi population (12 provinces) lives in areas that experience 6% of all attacks. 6 provinces listed a statistically insignificant number of attacks based on population size. 80% of all attacks are directed towards Coalition Forces. 80% of all casualties are suffered by the Iraqi population."

Gateway has plenty of cool charts. If you want the truth, then check it out. (If you want to keep ranting about Bush and the neocons/Jooooze and how we're losing, then just stick your head back up your ass!)

FANNIE MAE'S $40 BILLION SCANDAL - AND HOW RELIAPUNDIT SCOOPED BOTH INSTAPUNDIT AND THE WASHINGTON TIMES BY MONTHS - IF NOT YEARS!

Today, INSTAPUNDIT linked to a WASHINGTON TIMES article about the HUMONGOUS Fannie Mae Scandal. WASHTIMES:

When most people hear the word "Enron," they mentally complete the phrase by adding the word "scandal." As reporter Lester Holt of NBC's "Today" put it in a Jan. 1 story, "Enron has been the poster child, if you will, of corporate scandals."

It isn't the only one, though. There's $40-billion scandal with most of the same elements -- even connection to prominent politicians. Just don't expect to see much about it on TV. After all, the top people involved here are Democrats.

Welcome to Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored mortgage giant. As part of a scandal that's been running nearly two years, Fannie Mae has "misstated earnings" to the tune of $10.8 billion. That's some tune.

So far, the Fannie fiasco has cost Chief Executive Officer Franklin Raines and several other top executives their jobs. The stock has dropped from nearly $80 a share to around $50 -- roughly $30 billion in lost value. And the company recently settled with the federal government and agreed to pay $400 million in fines, stemming from allegations the firm fiddled with the books to ensure bigwigs got performance bonuses.

To top it off, the Fannie Mae leadership was quite well-connected in D.C., especially to the Democratic Party. The Washington Post on May 23 made this all clear in black and white. The front page of that day's Business section showed how James A. Johnson, a former campaign manager for Walter Mondale's presidential run, had created "a political powerhouse."

That story had a photo of Mr. Johnson, who had been chairman and chief executive of Fannie Mae, flanked by two other photos -- both other prominent Democrats. On one side was Mr. Raines, a former head of the Office of Management and Budget under Bill Clinton. On the other was Clinton Deputy Attorney General Jamie Gorelick.

While the rest of the graphic listed other prominent Democrats and Republicans, the titanic captains at Fannie Mae were clearly Democrats.

I first blogged on EXACTLY this HERE on DECEMBER 23rd 2004. YUP 2004!

I then blogged it again on NOVEMBER 21st, 2005 - HERE.

I then blogged this on MAY 24th, 2006 - HERE.

This is more proof that if you want the best news analysis BEFORE anyone else is even covering the nes, then just read THE ASTUTE BLOGGER - EVERYDAY.

(The American Thinker, BIZBLOGGER and NRO did link to the 5/24 post.)

JIHADOMANIACS PLANNED MORE 9/11'S. MAYBE, UNBEKNOWNST TO MOUSSAOUI, HE WAS ACTUALLY PART OF THE SUBSEQUENT PLOTS, AND NOT 9/11

CAPT'S QUARTERS:

ABC News reports this morning on a Homeland Security document that describes at least three plans to attack America and its allies via commercial aviation. The DHS analysis notes the "ingenuity" of al-Qaeda planners even though US security efforts stopped all of the plots:

ABC News reports this morning on a Homeland Security document that describes at least three plans to attack America and its allies via commercial aviation. The DHS analysis notes the "ingenuity" of al-Qaeda planners even though US security efforts stopped all of the plots.

NOW THIS - FROM CNN:

An islamic Web site has posted a video released by a group calling itself al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula of what it said was a man Osama bin Laden intended to be the 20th hijacker in the attacks on September 11, 2001.

The video, released on Tuesday, shows clips of Fawaz al-Nashmi -- also known as Turki bin Fhaid al-Mutairi. It follows by a few days another Web posting from the group that claims al-Nashmi was the man chosen by Osama bin Laden to be the 20th hijacker.

Al-Nashmi was a Saudi who later participated in a terrorist attack against oil workers in Khobar, Saudi Arabia. He was killed in a shootout with Saudi authorities in June 2004, shortly after the kidnapping and beheading of an American engineer.

AND THEN THIS:

An audio recording of a voice claiming to be that of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has been posted on a website used by Islamic militants. The message states the recently convicted Zacharias Moussaoui had nothing to do with the 11 September attacks, which is referred to as 'that mission'.

MAYBE THESE THREE ITEMS ARE CONNECTED? If the jihadomaniac cells are truly compartmentalized, then maybe Moussaoui believed he might have been part of 9/11 - but was actually part of attacks planned to occur AFTER 9/11 - (but which were disrupted by "Bushitlerhalliburtonneoconjewloverchimp").

I think this might be the case, yet I still think that Moussaoui deserved the death penalty; therefore it's a distinction without a difference.

W.H.O. CONFIRMS INDONESIAN BIRD FLU VIRUS NOW MILDLY H2H

BAD NEWS:

The World Health Organization has concluded that human-to-human transmission likely occurred among seven relatives who developed bird flu in Indonesia. In a report obtained Wednesday by The Associated Press, WHO experts said the cluster's index case was probably infected by sick birds and spread the disease to six family members. One of those cases, a boy, then likely infected his father, it said. The U.N. agency stressed the virus has not mutated and that no cases were detected beyond the family.

This is bad news because this transformation of the bird flu was the PREDICTED first step before the virus mutates into a full-blown and then becomes a more easily transmitted H2H virus. That's when the global pandemic begins.

THE CLOCK IS TICKING...

And the bad news is made worse by this:

Indonesia says it lacks the resources to effectively combat the spread of bird flu and is appealing for international help. It is appealing for $50 million, spread over three years, to set up a system to combat bird flu in farmed and backyard poultry. The appeal was made during a three-day meeting of international experts in the capital, Jakarta. ...

H5N1 does have the ability to transmit from human-to-human if there is continuous, close physical contact with the infected person.

Tests indicated the virus had not mutated.

Scientists were intrigued that only blood relatives were infected - from father to son, to sister, but not from father to wife or in-laws.

Scientists are also baffled that they cannot find an animal source for this cluster of infections.

The fact that scientists are BAFFLED is NOT reassuring...

MORE HERE ABOUT CHINA, TOO.

KIDNAPPED SOLDIERS WERE TORTURED AND BEHEADED

SKYNEWS/VIA DRUDGE:

The relatives of two US soldiers who were murdered in Iraq have reacted with a mix of grief and outrage over the news that the pair had been tortured and beheaded.

Our enemies in this war are evil animals: They are UN-UNIFORMED, non-signatories to the GENEVA TREATY (which is a TREATY relevant to only to signatory nations which abide by it, and not a set of universally applicable international laws).

The enemy is NOT a signatory, nor do they abide by the Treaty's rules: they are un-uniformed, they use terror - which is the deliberate targeting of civilians - and they hide among the civilain population - BOTH in violation of the Geneva treaty. Terefore, by any and all legal standards and measures the enemy is not - and should not be - covered by any protections afforded to treaty-abiding nations which have signed the Geneva Treaty.

Those who demand that the USA abide by the Geneva Treaty in our dealings with THIS enemy are either idiots and dupes or willing tools of the enemy.

This enemy deserves nothing except our total wrath and utter annihilation. By rights, the GITMO detainees can be summarily executed. (I favor firing squads, and no beheadings.)

Does this sound cruel!? Do you think it makes me like the enemy!? IT DOES NOT. We must fight fire with fire. FDR and Truman understood this; they were not shy about using the full force and fury of the US military against the enemy. That's why we won. We need to be more resolute and ruthless in our application of violence against our enemy.

NYTIMES:" A Campus for 'Scholars, Not Fighters' on a Settlement Site"

A large photo accompanies this front page article (about a new college campus in Gaza); here's the caption:

"A poster of Yasir Arafat has a place of honor on a cafeteria wall on the new campus of Al Aksa University."

This poster of Arafat (terrorist, murderer, racist, advocate of genocide, and billionaire thief - who won the Nobel "Peace Prize") and its caption tell the truth about this so-called college - it's a school poisoned by islamofascism and jihadoterrorism. The article is pure PROPAGANDA for the enemy.

Either the folks who run the NYTIMES are idiots and dupes or intelligent traitors - take your pick.

GLEANED FROM THE ARTICLE: (1) Al Aksa University is affiliated with FATAH, Arafat's terrorist organization. THE FATAH FLAG FLIES ON CAMPUS BUILDINGS. Also there's this item (2):

A new classroom building is going up to house 4,000 women, who are taught separately in this conservative society.

The NYTIMES deliberately calls the Islamofascist/misogynists who perpetrate gender segregation "conservative" in order SIMULTANEOUSLY soften the image of the enemy and to slander US conservatives.

The NYTIMES: a tool of the enemy.

GLOBAL WAR VERSUS GLOBAL-WARMING

ONE IS THREAT REAL, THE OTHER IS IMAGINED.

THE TWO HEROIC US SOLDIERS IN IRAQ WHO WERE KIDNAPPED. TOTURED, MURDERED, AND THEN HAD THEIR BODIES BOOBY-TRAPPED WERE NOT VICTIMS OF AN IMAGINARY FOE.

THE ENEMY IS A REAL ONE; IT IS CALLED AL QAEDA, AND INCLUDES MANY JIHADOMANIACS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD.

MANIACS WHO PERPETRATE TERROR ALL OVER THE WORLD - FROM THE PHILLIPINES THROUGH THAILAND AND PAKISTAN, AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, JORDAN, EGYPT, TURKEY, MOROCCO, AND LONDON. TO NAME JUST A FEW PLACES THEY HAVE ATTACKED, RECENTLY.

The other threat "man-made global-warming' - is merely a theoretical danger, one I am skeptical of because it is a FACT that the globe has had many MANY eras of warming and cooling, ALL before SUV's or man-made "greenhouse gases."

And then there's this FACT: As CO2 levels increased from 1940-1970, global temperatures DECLINED; this is DISPOSITIVE PROOF; increases in atmospheric CO2 cannot cause global warming. In fact, many areas where we see OBVIOUS warming are places where the local conditions are the cause - like Kilimanjaro and the Arctic.

People who are more worried about "man-made global warming:" are either DUPES or INSANE; most're victims of a deliberately provoked mass-hysteria perpetrated by politicians who literally and absolutely (and self-admittedly) want to enact laws which give government more control over the marketplace, if not the global economy, and who want to stultify the growth of trade and industrialization - the two economic engines which can actually best END worldwide poverty.

(FACT: China and south Korea have not improved their economies by becoming more socialist, but by becomg LESS socialist; DITTO Ireland, the UK, Poland, Hungary, Russia, India, etc., etc. etc. FACT: We will never redistribute our way to increased wealth, and we need to increase wealth to make more people have a higher standard of living.)

That's why I say:

To make poverty history, we need to make socialism history.

To make jihadoterrorism history, we need to make Leftism, defeatism, isolationism, pacifism, post-modernism, moral relativism and multi-culturalism history.

MORE HERE.

JOHN MURTHA: THE CONGRESSMAN FROM TORA BORA

PROOF HERE.

BY ALL STANDARIZED RATIONAL MEASURES: WE'RE WINNING IN IRAQ

PROOF HERE.

THE DEMOCRAT PARTY: TEDDY'S TOY

He backed Kerry gave him his Chief of Staff to turn around his campaign and got him nominated.

He has virtually backed fellow Leftist/millionaire Ned Lamont in his quest to unseat the cemtrist Lieberman.

NOW: is he backing GORE!? Makes sense: Gore has become a Leftie loon like Teddy.

BTW: Besides being the Dems kingmaker, Teddy is a murderer.

MURTHA: JUST ANOTHER FAT OLD WHITE-HAIRED BLOWHARD LIBERAL

MURTHA.
O'NEILL.
FOLEY.

SOME CONJECTURE ON 2008: THE LEFT, THE RIGHT AND THE THIRD WAY

Joe Klein of TIME asks:

How is it possible—with 2,500 U.S. solders dead, no discernible progress on the ground and a solid majority of the public now agreeing that the war in Iraq was a mistake—for the Democrats to seem so bollixed about the war and for the President to seem so confident? A good part of it is flawed strategy. Democrats keep hoping that the elections can be framed as a referendum on the Bush policy, and Republicans keep reminding the public that elections are a choice, not a referendum.

This is obviously TRUE WHEN THE ELECTION IS PRESENTED AS A CHOICE BETWEEN TWO CANDIDATES - between Bush and the GOP or Murtha/Sheehan/Kos and the doves of the Dem-Left - the GOP will win EVERY SINGLE TIME, in spite of spending too much and having a weak immigration policy.

But NOW - because of their low popularity - Bush and the GOP cannot win if a third party enters the contest. And this might be VERY likely. WHY?! Well, I see something else at play, a change which may signal something deeper: I believe the fact that the GOP have gained in the last two elections ('02 & '04) because what the elections were reduced to TWO CHOICES. The electorate is VERY diverse: there are liberal hawks and conservative doves - and each io these grous have diverse opinons on stem cells and gay marriage etc..

And as the electorate splits, elections can be WON by politicians and political parties which do NOT have the support of a majority, and which poll poorly popular overall -- as long as they come out number one. This is SORT OF LIKE IN THE UK'S SYSTEM - (OR ANY PARLIAMENTARY SYSTEM, PERHAPS), WHERE LABOR CAN SWEEP INTO POWER DESPITE ONLY GETTING 35% of the vote.

Bush and the GOP have pretty low numbers overall - especially considering that the economy is great and the GWOT is going well (not the MSM is reporting it!). But Bush and the GOP have low numbers MOSTLY because of leakage of conservative support (and partly because of leakage of the support of independents).

These disgruntled right-of-center voters are NOT likely to EVER vote for the doves of the Dem Left - (who want to cut & run overseas and raise taxes at home).

These disgruntled voters are more likely to (a) stay home, or (b) vote for a THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE - even one who runs in a single issue, or (c) hold their noses and vote GOP. If the GOP can paint the Dems as weak on national defense and risky on traditional culture than most of the disgruntled voters will vote GOP, and the GOP will win a two=party contest.

But, I think (b) might actually be the most likely eventuality because since 1980 we've had 7 presidential elections and 4 have had third party candidates who effected the outcome (Anderson, Perot twice, and Nader in 2000).

The scenario for 2008 might be one of these: If McCain wins the GOP nomination in 2008, I'd expect a third party run for the right (an anti-immigration/anti-stem-cell/anti-campaign-finance-reform candidate) - which would lead to the election the Dem dove. If McCain loses the nomination then he, or another Left-of-center hawk, will probably run as a third party candidate and thereby elect the Dem dove.

I think some type of a repeat of the Perot/Clinton/Bush contest may very well be the norm of the next four elections. There might be a 3rd party made up of anti-immigration Righties or of Daily Kos/cut&run Lefties. And if this happens then the USA will elect Leftists as president. (As Spain and Italy have done, recently ). This will be a DISASTER for our side in the GWOT.

I also think this scenario is most likely because I don't sense that there's a candidate in either party who can unite either party - and attract independents.

Well, maybe Mitt Romney can unite the GOP: (he's a conservative and a hawk but still managed to pass some sort of universal healthcare coverage in liberal Massachusetts).

But - as far as the Dems are concerned, I think that the Kos Krowd is so loony that they're incapable of settling on a Dem moderate in order to win, and therefore will end up supporting a third party candidate; (Webb in VA is NOT a true centrist because he is a DOVE).

A third party candidate from the Left could make the Dems appear as if they occupied the CENTER if the Dems nominate DLC centrists and therefore they might win (by getting the independents and the disgruntled GOP voters - as Clinton did). I think that the only two candidates who could do this for the Dems are Warner and Richardson - or a Warner-Richardson ticket. Or Bayh. A Dem ticket made up of any two of these three would easily win a three way race and be tough to beat in a two-way race. Tyhe Kos Krowd is not likely to allow this to happen.

WILD CARD: Condi. "Romney and Rice" wins - no matter what the rest of the field looks like.