Although total solar irradiance (TSI) may vary by only 0.1% over time, the
effect this small variance has on the climate of Earth is profound. By charting
trends in solar activity, and factoring in ocean oscillations such as the AMO,
PDO etc, one can explain most of the cyclic variations in Earth's climate
without considering variations in atmospheric CO2.
Since H2O is the predominant greenhouse gas in the Earth climate system, it
is likely that a better understanding of the water cycle will fill in large gaps
remaining in the understanding of ordinary changes in Earth climate.
Catastrophic changes--like glaciations--will likely need longer time scale
explanations that can easily reach outside of our solar system.
The Earth's temperature has not warmed over the past 10 years, even 20
years by some estimates. The recent month
of May was quite cool, globally speaking.
There are no sunspots yet again today. We have had nothing but "sun specks"
recently, and the long overdue Solar Cycle
24 has yet to come out to play with the planets.
Some scientists are even predicting
that sunspots will disappear altogether by the year 2015. It is unlikely
that the sunspots themselves are causing warming or cooling, but the current
paucity of sunspots reveals an unusual, unpredicted prolongation of solar cycle
23--and a delay to the start of solar cycle 24.
Historically, longer solar cycles correlate with cooler temperatures, and
lower numbers of sunspots correlate with lower temperatures.
Go read the whole thing.
No comments:
Post a Comment