MONCKTON DEBUNKS GLOBAL WARMING ECONOMICS

Christopher Monckton, Viscount Brenchley, continues his dispassionate dissection of the foolishness in Sir Nicholas Stern's economic analysis of the global warming conundrum in this week's Sunday Telegraph. In brief:

By 2035, says Sir Nick, temperature will have risen by "over 2C". It sounds alarming. What he means, though, is over 2C since 1750, when we don't know what the temperature was. Stern's 485 parts per million by 2035 is based on the UN's worst case. Even then, the increase compared with today would be just 0.7C. On the UN's lower projection, implying 425ppm by 2035, only 0.3C.

The UK accounts for just 2 per cent of global emissions, and falling. Even if Britain stopped using energy altogether, global temperature by 2035 would be six thousandths of a degree C less than if we carried on as usual. If we shut down once a week on Planet Day, make that less than one thousandth of a degree. Even if every Western country complied with Kyoto (and most won't), Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma says temperature a century from now would be a 25th of a degree lower than without Kyoto.

But do read the whole thing. Viscount Brenchley also includes a 77-page pdf file of e-mails he received following publication of his first article last week.

The views of 200 readers who emailed me are in the link above. About a third are scientists, including well-known climatologists and a physicist who confirmed my calculations. Some advise governments.

Nearly all condemn the "consensus". Most feel that instead of apologising, the UN has misled them, especially by using the defective "hockey-stick" temperature graph.

Global Warming Hysteria is advanced by the left in order to give them yet another reason to place all human activity under the control of a bureaucratic elite.

In the XIXth Century, and through the first half of the XXth Century, statists in the United States (an elsewhere) promulgated the idea that a rational society required a "dictatorship of the proletariat" so that the economy could be controlled by wise men who knew better than the market. The idea became quite popular in Europe, and spawned communism, fascism, and National Socialism. But it never caught on in the United States.

By the 1950s, it was obvious even to the American communists that communism had turned Russia and Eastern Europe into a hellhole. "No More Since Hungary." Besides which, the American worker had never been fooled by communist propaganda.

So instead of promulgating a worker-controlled demand-economy, leftists created a "new left" based not on economic justice but on social issues like civil rights, disarmament, and, eventually, opposition to the War in Vietnam.

This was a Gramscian movement. Following the path outlined by the Italian communist leader Antonio Gramsci, the New Left engaged in a cultural struggle to disrupt and destroy the cultural bases of America's successful free market society, in order to replace them with a new, revolutionary culture. That culture war continues.

Gramsci argued that the failure of the workers to make anti-capitalist revolution was due to the successful capture of the workers' ideology, self-understanding, and organizations by the hegemonic (ruling) culture. In other words, the perspective of the ruling class had been absorbed by the masses of workers. In "advanced" industrial societies hegemonic cultural innovations such as compulsory schooling, mass media, and popular culture had indoctrinated workers to a false consciousness. Instead of working towards a revolution that would truly serve their collective needs, workers in "advanced" societies were listening to the rhetoric of nationalist leaders, seeking consumer opportunities and middle-class status, embracing an individualist ethos of success through competition, and/or accepting the guidance of bourgeois religious leaders.

Well, that didn't work either. Communism finally collapsed in the Soviet Union (and in China, and almost everywhere else except for North Korea, Cuba, and Zimbabwe) and although the "Movement" advanced a variety of causes, America remained a basically conservative bastion of free-market economics. The left is splintered into a bewildering array of factions and fractions, each dedicated to one or another narrowly focused special interest. There was no unifying cause around which to orchestrate the need for bureaucratic domination of the world's economy.

That's what the left thinks it has found in "global warming." It is part of their luddite religious belief that prosperity is bad and that the pristine poverty and ignorance of the masses must be maintained in order that the elite might better manage every detail of daily life.

But unlike the other-worldly promises of other forms of belief-based ideologies, communism promised a material reward in this world -- and when it didn't materialize, communism collapsed.

There are already signs that the Earth is beginning to cool off again, and that the recent warm period of 1975-2000 is over.

Perhaps after a cool 5 years or so, the left will move on to another fantasy.

DISCOURAGED GOP VOTERS STAYED HOME

The San Francisco Chronicle is reporting that voter turnout in some of the most reliably Republican areas of California was a full 10 percentage points lower than the statewide average turnout:

"The turnout in Republican counties was low compared to the turnout in counties where Democrats hold the edge,'' said Patrick Dorinson, a spokesman for the state Republican Party. "The conservative Republican base didn't show up.''

There will be more news like this from other States around the Country as the election results are analyzed. The GOP lost the House and the Senate because of the Party's officeholders' failure to walk the conservative talk. The suppressed turnout.

DEMS CHANNELING AYMAN? NOT QUITE.

Yes, it is a bit too late to bring this up. But back on October 1st, Doug Ross posted a nice graphical demonstration that shows how Ayman Zawahiri and several national Democrat Party leaders are using essentially identical talking points. Look at it now.

Time and again, the terrorists who want to kill us all have taken their talking points (what the incandescent Victor Davis Hanson properly identifies as the prophasis) from Western (specifically American) leftists. It is reminiscent of the quiz which showed how difficult it was to distinguish the environmental writings of Al-G'ore and Theodore Kaczynski.

Relaipundit adds: Exactly right! And that's why I have 23 posts on Leftists and jihadists titled "Birds of a Feather".

THE FOLLY OF APPEASEMENT

WHAT THEY SAID THEN:

Just give them Sudatenland, and everything will be alright.
Just give them mainland China and everything will be alright.
Just give them Eastern Europe and everything will be alright.
Just give them Cuba and everything will be alright.
Just give them Hungary and everything will be alright.
Just give them the north of Korea, and everything will be alright.
Just give them Czechoslovakia and everything will be alright.
Just give them South Vietnam and everything will be alright.
Just give them Nicaragua and everything will be alright.
Just give them Iran and everything will be alright.
Just give them Afghanistan and everything will be alright.
Just give them Poland and everything will be alright.

WHAT THEY SAY NOW:

Just give them Waziristan and eastern Afghanistan and everything will be alright.
Just give them the so-called “occupied territories” and everything will be alright.
Just give them Iraq and everything will be alright.
Just give them Kashmir and everything will be alright.
Just give them northern Nigeria and everything will be alright.
Just give them south Thailand and everything will be alright.
Just give them the Moro Islands and everything will be alright.
Just give them sharia in the banlieues of Paris and eveything will be alright.

Just give them all of Israel and everything will be alright.

APPEASEMENT: wrong then; wrong now.

ROMANIANS REMEMBER WHAT DICTATORSHIP MEANS

The Romanian President Traian Basescu has promised that his troops will not abandon Iraq, "because it's a dishonor to leave your allies." It hasn't been that long since a murderous maniac ruled Romania. President Basescu promises:

"We have an obligation to the Iraqi people. We will leave when the local authorities can provide security for the people," he said.

The Romanian contingent is small, but numbers are not always the most important thing. (Hat tip: A Jacksonian, via Gateway.)

Reliapundit adds: Eastern Europe is not as jaded as Western Europe. As others in the blogosphere have argued: It's time we moved our troops out of Germany and into Romania and Poland and Bulgaria - where we will be appreciated.

GULF OIL, ALASKAN OIL, AND THE GOP

Energy independence demands that we drill for oil in the USA. The USA includes the Gulf. And Alaska. The Canadians drill right next to ANWR with NO deleterious effects. And the Gulf is a much EASIER place to drill for oil than ther North Sea - where the UK and Norway get MOST of their oil from, safely and cleanly.

And yet, the Democrats OPPOSE new drilling in the Gulf and Alaska. I guess they feel that we Americans can't drill for oil as cleanly as Canadians, Brits and the Norse. That's why many think the Dems will repeal the opening of the Gulf for oil-exploration.

I think we conesrvatives ought to go to the mats on this issue. Katrina PROVED that Gulf oil platforms are SAFE. The time for America's ENERGY INDEPENDENCE fight is NOW. America's ENERGY INDEPENDENCE should be a MAJOR PART OF THE GOP PLATFORM, AND THE GOP ATTACK ON THE LEFTISTS IN CONGRESS.

BUYER'S REMORSE: WE'RE NOT THE ONLY ONES WORRIED ABOUT THE DEMS

Although the headline from al-Reuters is "Bush Approval Drops," the text of the article shows that THE ASTUTE BLOGGERS are not the only ones worried about the Democrats' plans for America:

While a bare majority of 51 percent called the Democrats' victory "a good thing," even more said they were concerned about some of the actions a Democratic Congress might take, including 78 percent who were somewhat or very concerned that it would seek too hasty a withdrawal of troops from Iraq. Another 69 percent said they were concerned that the new Congress would keep the administration "from doing what is necessary to combat terrorism," and two-thirds said they were concerned it would spend too much time investigating the administration and Republican scandals.

Buyer's remorse? (Hat tip: the incomparable Michelle Malkin.)

INDEPENDENT SENATOR RE-ELECT LIEBERMAN: WE KNEW HE WASN'T STUPID

Senator Joseph Lieberman (Ind, CT.) declined to "shut the door" on caucusing with the GOP rather than the Democrat Party that reviled and abandoned him. IF JOE CAUCUSES WITH THE GOP, THEN THE GOP HOLDS THE SENATE. STAY TUNED...

WILL THE DEMOCRAT DOVES MAKE US RETREAT FROM IRAQ? THEY'RE GOING TO TRY!

It looks like the radical left Democrats who control the Democratic Party, and who used moderate candidates in rural districts to fool the electorate into returning them to legislative power, are going to try to enact their decidedly non-moderate program.

According to al Reuters, the Democrats will push for a cut & run from Iraq.

The Democrats will do everything they can to weaken America. It is to be hoped that Americans take the opportunity to watch very closely what the Democrats try to do, but that the GOP minorities and the President can limit the damage as much as possible.

But IF John Conyers becomes Judiciary Chairman and succeeds in gutting the Patriot Act, and if Alcee Hastings becomes Intelligence Chairman and succeeds in shutting down the NSA surveillance programs, and if Henry Waxman used a series of investigations to cow and bully the FBI, the CIA, and the Pentagon, THEN the Federal government's anti-terrorist prevention efforts will collapse: The bureaucrats will be more afraid of a Congressional investigation into "racial profiling" than they will be afraid of Al Qaeda. And a thermonuclear explosion in Manhattan or London might very well be the inevitable result.

LOOKS EVEN BETTER THAN A DOG

It looks as if Britons are rediscovering the history of their Empire. The Telegraph informs us that the British Empire and Commonwealth Museum in Bristol is going to put hundreds of photographs taken by British colonials on line. The 6,000 photographs have never been seen before. If they are anything like the photograph of the little boy and Rupert, his pet rhinoceros, they will be something to behold!

ABOUT THOSE SO-CALLED MUSLIM MODERATES: DO THEY MATTER?

Metropolitan Police Force Commissioner Sir Ian Blair once said that there is nothing wrong with being a fundamentalist Muslim. He recently announced a policy of notifying Muslim community leaders before the police undertook any anti-terror raids - perhaps in an attempt to mollify so-called moderate Muslims and to prevent police actions from alienating more the Muslim community. SO: How's it going, Sir Ian? Not too well:

In his speech, Sir Ian pointed to opinion polls suggesting that between 40,000 and 120,000 Muslims in Britain believed that last year's July 7 London bombings, in which 52 innocent people died, were justified.

He said it was shocking that the suspects in the alleged liquid-bomb plot to blow up transatlantic airliners, mostly young British-born Muslims, "were converted from what appeared to be ordinary lives — in a matter of weeks and months, not years — to a position where some were allegedly prepared to commit suicide and murder thousands of people".

If this is true, then another - and much worse - attack is much closer than we think... Read The Whole Thing.

JIHADIST SNIPERS AND THEIR TRAITOROUS MSM COMRADES, OR: "THANK ALLAH FOR CNN!"

It seems that the terrorists in Iraq have adapted their tactics. They learned from CNN that sniper attacks will get them wide play in the mass media and help discourage Americans about the conduct of the war. So now, they're doing more of them. Thank you, CNN!

"In the beginning of the war, sniping wasn't something that the Iraqis did," said Capt. Glen Taylor, the executive officer of the battalion's Company G. The insurgents are recruiting snipers and centralizing their instruction, the captain said, meaning that the phenomenon is likely to grow.

The Marines also express their belief that the sniper teams have a network of spotters and that, each time the Marines leave their outpost, spotters hidden among the Iraqi population call the snipers and tell them where the Marines are and what they are doing.

How many of those sniper spotters are stringers for CNN, the AP, and Reuters? How many of those sniper attacks were staged for "photojournalists" in order to spread the propaganda of jihad through the complaisant media?

THE DEMOCRAT CONTROLLED CONGRESS: THE UNITED NATIONS OF LOWER CANADA

The indispensable Jules Crittenden on the Democrat strategy for the war on terror:

The . . . whatever it is in Iraq . . . is no longer a war, it’s a “problem,” House Speaker-in-waiting Nancy Pelosi says. Abandonment enthusiast John Murtha, in the running for majority leader, is less ambiguous about it. George Bush “is not going to go on with this war in Iraq.” Murtha wants a Vietnam in Iraq. Chaos and mass murder in Iraq. A victory for terrorism in Iraq. An end of America’s relevance in the world, compliments of Iraq.

So much for the party of FDR, Truman and JFK. This is the party of Jimmy Carter.

Bush, meanwhile, is moving toward appeasement. With the cautious choice of Robert Gates for the Pentagon, Bush wants to work with the Democrats for success in Iraq. He’s waiting for the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group, which has signalled it wants talks with Iraq’s terrorist-backing neighbors in Iran and Syria.

Like the man says, Read The Whole Thing.

HOW MIGHT PELOSI LOOK IN A BURKA?

Send me a jpeg of your photo-shops! After all, Nancy should start thinking about that, because if her policies are passed, that's where we're all headed.

And I must ask: what does it say about her that she is MORE loyal to the platform of her party - (on things like abortion, gay marriage, and appeasement of jihad) - than the teachings of her church?

She certainly is representative of her district: it was the only one in all of CA NOT to pass Jessica's Law, and it leads the nations in sex trafficking crimes. This is the district that KNOWS & LOVES her bettere than everyone else. As Speaker, though. it is likely we will ALL get to know her just as well. I pray the nation rejects her and her post modern Leftism.

BTW: Pelosi LEADS the CA delegation in receiving FEDERAL PORK. Since the MSM won't cover this, it's up to us. GET CRACKING!

THEY'RE SLAUGHTERING YOU LIKE SHEEP AND YOU STILL LOOK WITHIN.

Now that the Democrat leadership is going to focus on the "root causes" of terrorism, perhaps it would be useful to find out what those "root causes" are, from someone who knows:

"The deliberate and determined expansion of militant Islam and its attempt to triumph not only in the Islamic world but in Europe and North America. Pure ideology. Muslim terrorists kill and slaughter not because of what they experience but because of what they believe."

Dr. Tawfik Hamid is a 45-year-old Egyptian doctor who was once affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood -- and the Al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya, a banned terrorist group in which he was trained by fellow physician Ayman Zawahiri.

"The first thing you have to understand is that it has nothing, absolutely nothing, to do with poverty or lack of education," he says.

"I was from a middle-class family and my parents were not religious. Hardly anyone in the movement at university came from a background that was different from mine."

And their terrorist ideology is widely shared:

"We're not talking about a fringe cult here," he tells me. "Salafist [fundamentalist] Islam is the dominant version of the religion and is taught in almost every Islamic university in the world. It is puritanical, extreme and does, yes, mean that women can be beaten, apostates killed and Jews called pigs and monkeys."

So why do they become terrorists?

"Islam also tells of unlimited sexual ecstasy in paradise with beautiful virgins for the martyr who gives his life for the faith. Don't for a moment underestimate this blinding passion or its influence on those who accept fundamentalism." A pause. "I know. I was one who accepted it."

This partial explanation is shocking more for its banality than its horror. Mass murder provoked partly by simple lust. But it cannot be denied that letters written by suicide bombers frequently dwell on waiting virgins and sexual gratification.

"The sexual aspect is, of course, just one part of this. But I can tell you what it is not about. Not about Israel, not about Iraq, not about Afghanistan. They are mere excuses. Algerian Muslim fundamentalists murdered 150,000 other Algerian Muslims, sometimes slitting the throats of children in front of their parents. Are you seriously telling me that this was because of Israel's treatment of the Palestinians or American foreign policy?"

Dr. Tawfik Hamid's advice for the West:

"Stop asking what you have done wrong. Stop it! They're slaughtering you like sheep and you still look within. You criticize your history, your institutions, your churches.

Why can't you realize that it has nothing to do with what you have done but with what they want."

Do you think the Democrat majorities in Congress will heed that advice?

Reliapundit answers: NO.

THE MID-TERMS AND BEYOND: POWER LINE VERSUS THE CAPTAIN

I agreed with The Captain's take on the Hizballah War, and disagreed with the folks at Power Line, who argued that it was a defeat for Israel. Now I agree with Power Line's take on the post-election posture for conservatives, and vehemently disagree with The Captain.

One thing this RE-proves: the MOST interesting debate on any issue is NOT between the Left and the Right, BUT WITHIN THE DYNAMIC RIGHT!

KEITH ELLISON'S VICTORY SPEECH

At the end of Keith Ellison's "God-is-good-y'all" speech, listen for the cries of "Allahu Akbar!" But, of course, Mr. Ellison's campaign had nothing to do with religion, right? And he reprimanded those chanters, right?

Note: Photo from CAIR's announcement of the November 18, 2006 annual banquet, at which Keith Ellison will be the keynote speaker.

Reliapundit adds: Sadly (for me: a registered Democrat since 1974), Ellison and his jihad-supporting backers BELONG in today's Democrat Party.

THE ASTUTE BLOGGERS WEEKLY R&R REVIEW - #6

There's more to life than war, taxes and politics - and a lot of it's more fun, too! That's why every WEEKEND, here at THE ASTUTE BLOGGERS, we post our opinions on some of the cultural things we're into, things we think you might also find entertaining, enriching, and stimulating. Good for "Rest & Relaxation" - "R&R".

Please check it out every week - and tell your friends. We just might turn you on to something cool. After all, the arts - ALL ARTS, not just fine arts - are a big part of what our liberty is for, and what we're fighting to defend!

ALWAYS ON WATCH: CATHARSIS -

This past week has not offered me much opportunity for R&R. Nevertheless, I took time to do something I should have done a long time ago: I wrote a tribute to my mother, who passed away nineteen years ago. I should have shared my thoughts long before now, but somehow I wasn't ready nor was I motivated to do so. Personal writing brings healing and closure. I need to make more time for that kind of writing!

RELIAPUNDIT: MUSIC -

I have often said, you can put all the idiocies and injustices of human history on one side of a scale and Beethoven on the other and Beethgoven would justfy human existence. The Third and the Fifth and the Ninth, (more here and here).Especially the Ninth: The triumph of the human spirit, of peace, and of God. Here's a good video of a great performance.

2006 CLEARLY DEFINED THE 2008 PLAYING FIELD

Let's forget the players for the moment, and look at the map for the result of 2006 and compare them to the map for 2000 & 2004.

What we see is that the GOP slipped badly in three key states -states the GOP MUST gain back if they are to win in 2008: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. The inability of the national GOP to overcome state party problems is very troubling, and means that the state parties in these essential 3 must be revamped... NOW.

In Ohio, Taft is a corrupt moderate, who REALLY hurt the party. Now that the state has a Dem guv, the GOP there must get it's act together and propose MAJOR tax cuts - and find a charismatic spokesman for this effort. And he or she should have nothing to do with the state's to AWFUL/wimpy US Senators: DeWine (who is exiting) and Voinovich - the crybaby who dissed Bush by initially failing to support Bolton.

In Florida, the state GOP failed to get a good Senatorial candidate to oppose Nelson - even though it elected a GOP guv. This shows that FL voters know how to split their tickets, and that the state GOP is incompetent. Florida is a must win state for ANY POTUS candidate. Senator Martinez AND Jeb Bush MUST take control of the state machine and be held repsonsible for recruiting good candidates for 2008, and getting an advantageous referendum on the ballot, too.

In Pennsylvania, the state GOP failed to get behind Santorum - who got behind Spector - (and also Spector, the ungrateful s**mbag - failed to get behind Rick), and the state GOP also nominated Swann - who proved that a novice with name-power is NOT always the way to go. Former guv Tom Ridge should step to the fore, become state party chair and get this state's GOP apparatus together.

ALSO: I'd make Michael Steele and the RE-ELECTED MID-WEST guv Tim Pawlenty the GOP Co-Chairmen and have them assign the best operatives to these three states - NOW.

Time is a wasting... In addition to the great Mitch McConnell in the Senate (and hopefully Pence in the House), we need these two visible and credible GOP chairs to be the NEW face of the opposition, ASAP! The fight is on. The battlefield is bigger than before and the opposition stronger. We need to formulate an aggressive platform of lower taxes (smaller government), a more assertive and forward-leaning foreign policy, and conservative judges. FASTER, PLEASE!

SHAKE-UP IN BEIRUT: HIZBALLAH WITHDRAWS FROM LEBANESE CABINET

BBC:

All five Shia Muslim pro-Syrian ministers in the Lebanese government have resigned, Hezbollah has said. They include two Hezbollah members and two from the Amal movement, its ally. In multi-party talks, Hezbollah had asked for cabinet seats that would give it and its allies power of veto but the majority group in parliament refused. Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said he refused to accept the resignations but the five say they will stick by their decision.

The resignations came just two days before the government was due to discuss a draft UN document on a tribunal for those suspected of killing former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri last year. The tension in Lebanon has been building since this summer's war between Hezbollah and Israel and ahead of the formation of the tribunal.

As a result of the Hariri murder investigation and the recent indictment of former Iranian president Rafsanjani, things might soon be getting very interesting. It will be hard for the Lefties to argue that terror is "merely a law enforcement problem" - (one made worse by Bush) once these indictments and tribunals have been shown to be utterly USELESS - which is inevitable since neither Rafsanjani or Assad will ever agree to be tried in any court of law. So perhaps the Left will be smoked-out on this issue - and be forced to admit that the GWOT is a real global war - sooner than we think.

****11/12/06 UPDATE: We beat LGF by a full 12 hours on this story folks, proving once again you all should make TAB your first stop for news and analysis! AND TELL YOUR BUDDIES!

WHY IS AL QAEDA RETREATING FROM THE AFGHAN BORDER REGION?

I've seen this story at a couple of sites the past few days. Al Qaeda appears to be retreating from Afghanistan. Everyone is counting this as a victory, and perhaps it is. At least one site was tying this story to the story of a few weeks back about Bin Laden being dead. I don't know, though. Read this story, and tell me if you think this sounds like good news:

Rohan Gunaratna, head of terrorism research at Singapore's Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies, and the author of "Inside Al Qaeda; Global Network of Terror," said "We have seen that several hundred, perhaps five to six hundred al Qaeda members who were located on the Afghan-Pakistan border, have now left."

Gunaratna adds that these al Qaeda members have returned "to their own home countries, particularly to Iraq, and also to other Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and Yemen. We have seen a shift in Al Qaeda's thinking, in strategy."

Some of those who returned to their native countries in the Arab world and were caught have told investigators that the orders only specified al Qaeda's decision for the Arabs to depart Afghanistan. The choice of a route was left to al Qaeda's local commanders in Afghanistan, according to information given by arrested suspects to their interrogators.

"The standard answer was: We don't know why we were told to leave. The orders were very specific — leave Afghanistan now without wasting much time." The diplomat spoke on the condition that neither his identity nor that of his country would be revealed.

Leave, and leave fast? That's peculiar, especially when you consider they could simply melt away into the landscape. Methinks there's something more to this. There was also a call for Muslims to leave the United States recently. Some have speculated that that call was tied to a WMD attack. I don't know, though. If Al Qaeda had a nuke up their sleeve, it's a bit hard to believe they'd detonate it in Afghanistan, where there are very few actual Western assets.

So, what do I think is going on? Perhaps, it wasn't Afghanistan they were supposed to clear out of quickly, but the Afghanistan/Waziristan border region. Or, in other words, Waziristan. A while back, I ran a post here at Astute Bloggers conjecturing that the reason Pakistan ceded Waziristan was to make it an independent terrorist state, which would free the United States to attack it. When it was still part of Pakistan, we could not have reasonably attacked because (supposedly) Pakistan is our ally. If this is true, then it would make sense that Al Qaeda would want to clear out of there fast. In short, I believe they fear a massive aerial bombardment from the United States.

Relipaundit adds: Great post, Pastorius. I wonder: Does al Qaeda fear an impending US attack for a reason - like because they know it will come after the next big terror attack in the USA or the UK? And if this is so, then doesn't this "retreat" signal that a big terror attack is impending? Remember: they assassinated Massoud a few days before 9/11 - to make any USA counter-attack less effective; (Massoud led the pro-USA Northern Alliance - the Taliban's rivals in Afghanistan). IOW: Perhaps this "retreat" is really just a preparation for their next mega-terror attack here and/or in the UK, and the allied RETALIATORY strike they are certain would soon follow it?

This interpretation of the 'retreat" from Afghanistan coincides nicely with the recent call for Muslims to leave the USA, and the fact that Osama got a fatwa to kill 10 million US citizens (according to Amanpour at CNN), the clearly apocalyptic talk from Ahmadinejad, and recent news reports of an impending attack in Europe.

I would guess that the jihadists are greatly ENCOURAGED by the recent Democrat victories: it places in power people likely to respond to the next "9/11" by appeasing them. On a scale of 1-10 (with 10 being absolute certainty), I consider the likelihood of a major jihadoterror attack within the next 2 years - here and/or the UK - to be 8. Unless we make GREATER and more successful efforts to destroy them, they will eventually hit us here again - with devastating results.

Ultimately, this means, in order to be safe and secure, we must neutralize Hizballah and Hamas and Syria and Iran. either we do this or we WILL be the victims of a mega-attack.

FURTHER SPECULATION: If Iran isn't neutered by the USA by September '08, I expect Israel to whack Iran. I feel that Iran knows this an therefore actually plans to whack Israel first - and dare the West to counter-attack. And while Iran waits for the West to retaliate, Israel's survivable second strike will vaporize Iran. Israel understands that Bush is lkess likely to act against Iran, now that he's lost the Congress, and Israel knows this means she must act to defend herself. She will - whether it is preemptively or after a mega-attack traceable to Iran.

ROBERT GATES IS A BAD CHOICE FOR DEFENSE SECRETARY

Caroline Glick points out that Robert Gates, Dubya's choice for defense secretary, is a bad choice:

Many downplay the significance of the US Congressional elections. It is the six-year slump, they say. But the truth is nonetheless glaring. By all accounts, Tuesday the George W. Bush era came to a close. The consequences of this turn of events on Israel will be dramatic. Unfortunately, it is doubtful that anyone has explained them to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert ahead of his scheduled visit to the White House next week.

Across the political spectrum in Washington today there is a sense that after years of wavering, in the wake of the Democratic victory in Tuesday's Congressional elections, President Bush transferred control over American foreign policy to his father's anti-war advisors.

The President's announcement of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's "resignation" Wednesday signaled the transfer of control over the war against radical Islam from Bush's team to Bush pere's team. Robert Gates, Bush's nominee to replace Rumsfeld, served as his father's deputy national security adviser and CIA director. Gates, who will arrive at the Pentagon from his present position as President of Texas A&M University where Bush I's presidential library is located, is closely associated with former national security advisor Brent Scowcroft and former secretary of state James Baker. He is a member in good standing of the Arabist wing of the Republican Party which dominated the President's father's administration.

Worth reading in full. The conservative movement would be advised to oppose Gates' nomination, since he could be damaging to the war on terror, and set back the battle by a number of years.

On some local news here in Israel, MK Effie Eitam, a member of the National Union/NRP, is calling for a union between his party and the Likud:

MK Effie Eitam is calling for a merger of sorts between the Likud and the National Union/National Religious Party, with the goal of toppling the Olmert government.

Speaking at a Likud gathering in a Tel Aviv hotel Thursday night, MK Eitam bemoaned the fact that "there is currently no opposition." He called upon the Likud members to agree to unite in one large opposition party - or at least to work together.

"Now that Avigdor Lieberman has left the right-wing camp and joined the government," Eitam told Arutz-7's Yedidya HaCohen, "we must unite all the forces to topple the Olmert government. Just today, Olmert said that Abu Mazen doesn't realize how far he [Olmert] is willing to go politically. Therefore, in light of the challenges that face us, and after the war in Lebanon, the most important thing to do now is to cooperate."

With this news, I certainly hope that Eitam is sorry for any damage he led to during the last elections. He was needlessly inciting against the Likud, and he owes them - and much of the public - a sincere apology. And for someone who argues that there's no opposition, well, it should be noted that even he's guilty in his own way of that, and now he'd be well advised to start proving that he can be a true opposition voice himself.