The Bhutto Assassination: The End of Stability?

The BBC loves to wallow in negativity. This time you have to wonder if they have good reason:

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto is a severe, and potentially crippling,
blow to international hopes that Pakistan might emerge into a state of
stability.

The risks of Pakistan imploding have once again increased.

It is a further setback for the US "war on terror",
which has as part of its strategy in the region the restoration of democracy in
Pakistan to offer an alternative path, away from militancy and extremism.

The strategy is very much at risk.

Benazir Bhutto's death came less than two weeks before elections
scheduled for 8 January.

Her decision to carry on with campaigning despite a double
suicide bomb attack on her convoy immediately after her return to Pakistan on 18
October was undoubtedly brave.

However, it underestimated the determination of those out to kill her.

She herself blamed Islamic extremists for the first attack.

The ability of such militants to wreak havoc with their ruthless
tactics is once again demonstrated.

Up to this
point, planning for a more stable nation was more or less on target.

President Pervez Musharraf had allowed both Benazir
Bhutto and another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif to return, had stepped
down as head of the army and had been re-packaged as a civilian president.

He had set a date for parliamentary elections and
had lifted the state of emergency.

The hope was that politics would be resumed and that the confrontation
between the army and Islamic militants would gradually be wound down.

An end to such conflict is vital not only for the
future stability of Pakistan but for the future of Afghanistan. It is from
Pakistan that the Taleban are able to conduct their war against the Afghan
government and its Nato supporters.

If President Musharraf and the Pakistan army decide
that such an approach is no longer possible, they might abandon it and the army
might impose military rule, as has happened so often before in Pakistan's
national life.

Not that Ms Bhutto was seen as the panacea for Pakistan's woes. When in
office she was regarded by some as a domineering and at times a divisive figure.

But she did offer charismatic leadership at this crucial stage and she
had the potential to provide Pakistan with the means of changing its ways.