BINLADEN ALIVE, AND HIS THREAT IS VERY REAL

Aljazeera has aired a new Binladen tape which refers to recent events - and a NEW THREAT/"truce offer":

The voice, attributed to Bin Laden and apparently addressing Americans, said: "The new operations of al-Qaida has not happened not because we could not penetrate the security measures. It is being prepared and you'll see it in your homeland very soon."

If it's NOT a cut-and-paste job (and I FEEL it is NOT) then we must take his THREAT very VERY seriously. Binladen's formal offering of a truce may be what he feels he MUST do before unleashing a horrific multi-city WMD attack. And Binladen OBVIOUSLY feels that he can exploit divisions within the West and within the USA between doves who feel the war in Iraq is going badly and hawks who believe the GWOT is gong well. In fact, Binladen's statement reads like a NDC talking points memo (BTW: WHO IS WRITING THIS STUFF FOR BINLADEN!? Is it Jack Murtha or is it Teddy or Nancy? Heh.):

"In response to the substance of the polls in the US, which indicate that Americans do not want to fight Muslims on Muslim land, nor do they want Muslims to fight them on their land, we do not mind offering a long-term truce based on just conditions that we will stick to. ... "But what triggered my desire to talk to you is the continuous deliberate misinformation given by your President [George] Bush, when it comes to polls made in your home country which reveal that the majority of your people are willing to withdraw US forces from Iraq. ... We know that the majority of your people want this war to end and opinion polls show the Americans do not want to fight the Muslims on Muslim land, nor do they want Muslims to fight them on their [US] land.

We are a nation that Allah banned from lying and stabbing others in the back, hence both parties of the truce will enjoy stability and security to rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan, which were destroyed by war. "There is no problem in this solution, but it will prevent hundreds of billions from going to influential people and war lords in America - those who supported Bush's electoral campaign - and from this, we can understand Bush and his gang's insistence on continuing the war."

Addressing Americans again, he said: "If your desire for peace, stability and reconciliation was true, here we have given you the answer to your call."

CNN:

On the tape, the speaker said, "Our mujahedeen were able to overcome all the security measures in European countries, and you saw their operation in major European capitals.

FBI, counterterrorism and intelligence officials say there's been no increase in so-called "chatter," or monitored communications, and no intelligence suggests any terrorist plan is operational or ready to be put in place in the United States.

BUT, the NYTIMES leak about the NSA intercepts might have made their chatter less available to interception - a claim made by intelligence officials to JOE KLEIN of TIME magazine.

AP: Binladen continues:

The voice on the tape said heightened security measures in the United States are not the reason there have been no attacks there since the Sept. 11, 2001, suicide hijackings. Instead, the reason is "because there are operations that need preparations, and you will see them," he said

BBC: "Bin Laden made Europe a similar truce offer following the Madrid train bombings of March 2004." (More on this previous November 2004"offer" HERE (Newsday; this was just before the US election), and the April 2004 "offer" HERE, (MSNBC; this is the one just after the Madrid bombings - AND JUST BEFORE THE LONDON BOMBINGS).

RELIAPUNDIT:

(1) Only yesterday I referred to Binladen as ALIVE (despite recent reports - from ledeen and others) that he was dead. I think he is alive because, until there is proof of the fact that he is dead, I feel we must presume he is alive. (2) On 1/9/06, I believed Zarqawi when he issued a statement that Binladen had ordered the rocket attacks against Israel. And in that post, I warned that Zarqawi's statement contained an ominous warning of a WMD attack in Israel or the USA. Because Binladen has released THIS warning tape, I believe that there will be an attempted major jihadoterrorist SOON, more than ever. (3) On 11/18/05, I again warned that the enemy was desperately trying to WIDEN the war in order to make it tougher for us to combat them militarily. My first warning of this was on 9/25/05. These warnings have been borne out, I believe, by the AL QAEDA rocket attacks against Israel and the suicide-bombing attack in Amman. And now, these TWO statements - one by Zarqawi and this newer one by Binladen - each threaten to widen the war, and attempt MAJOR attacks inside Israel and/or the USA (little Satan and Big Satan).

If my assumptions are correct, then I would expect that al Qaeda will attempt an attack in the USA - with WMD - in our major cities, probably the subways in our major cities (because Zarqawi specifically said "DEEP INSIDE" in his statement after the rocket-firng against Israel) - and/or probably against HIGH PROFILE TARGETS (like the Superbowl, or the NYSE, or some such national symbol).

NOTE: In April 2004, JIHAD WATCH weighed in on Islamic truce offers:

Remember, Islamic law is quite specific about truces. They can only be concluded for a temporary period, so that the Islamic forces can gather strength. Thus this offer, whoever is really making it, may indicate that the mujahedin are feeling the heat of the war on terror in Iraq, and want to give their forces a chance to regroup and regain the upper hand.

In addition, the offer of a truce may come just before an attack - to make it seem warranted and get the perpetrators off the hook, as in "We gave you a chance, and you turned us down - so the attack is your OWN fault or the fault of your leaders, and NOT US!"ADDITIONALLY: The WEEKLY STANDARD published this article on al Qaeda truce-offerings last April. And there's much MORE HERE - the full round-up at MEMEORANDUM.