"IRAN IS A BLACK HOLE"

TIME/ROBERT BAER:

... how far is Iran from a nuke? The new NIE says 10 to 15 years, maybe. But that's a wild guess. Iran is a black hole, and it's entirely conceivable Iran could build a bomb and we wouldn't know until they tested it.

REPEAT:

... how far is Iran from a nuke?

The new NIE says 10 to 15 years,

maybe.

But that's a wild guess.

Iran is a black hole,
and it's entirely conceivable
Iran could build a bomb
and we wouldn't know
until they tested it.

PONDER THAT.

THAT WOULD BE TOO LATE.

• THE ONLY WAY TO BE SURE IS TO ATTACK THEIR NUCLEAR ASSETS AND DEMOLISH THEIR MILITARY ASSETS - LAND AND SEA.

• OR DO YOU WANT TO TRUST IRAN - DESPITE THE FACT THAT EVERYONE AGREES - THAT THEY'VE LIED FOR 20 YEARS ABOUT THEIR CIVILIAN PROGRAM!?

• AND DESPITE THE FACT THAT PAKISTAN AND INDIA AND LIBYA ALL HAD PROGRAMS WHICH THE CIA KNEW NOTHING ABOUT!?

• DESPITE THE FACT THAT EVEN SADDAM HAD ONE WE KNEW NOTHING ABOUT, TOO. ONE WE ONLY DISCOVERED AFTER THE GULF WAR.

• BOTTOM-LINE: OUT INTEL STILL SUCKS.

• THE NIE ON IRAN WENT FROM NEAR CERTAINTY THAT THEY HAD A WEAPONS PROGRAM TO NEAR CERTAINTY THEY DO NOT AND HAVEN'T FOR 4 YEARS. THAT'S IDIOTIC.

THAT'S WHY I WOULDN'T BASE OUR NATIONAL SECURITY ON ANY OF ITS ESTIMATES OR GUESSES.

[ASIDE: I NOW FEEL THAT GEORGE W. "RELIGION OF PEACE" BUSH MIGHT JUST FEEL LIKE THIS LATEST NIE IS HIS "OUT", AND THAT HE CAN KICK THIS CAN UP THE ROAD, AND LETTI THE NEXT PRESIDENT DEAL WITH IT.

THAT DISGUSTS ME.

BUSH'S HAWKISHNESS WITH THE TALIBAN AND SADDAM PAID OFF VIS A VIS LIBYA, NORTH KOREA AND IRAN - UP TO NOW... THAT'S WHY I THINK WE SHOULD STAY HAWKISH.]