Sunday, September 14, 2014

WE NEED MACRO-ECONOMIC GROWTH, NOT REDISTRIBUTION

FIRST A CLIP FROM BARTIROMO'S SHOW: WARSH SAYS WE NEED PRIVATE BUSINESS INVESTMENT TO PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY BEFORE WE CAN GROW.

NOW, MY COMMENTARY:
THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS NOT THE ONLY PLAYER IN TOWN.

THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, AND THE EU AND CHINA AND PUTIN AND YES ISIS ALSO  GET THEIR SAY.

IOW: DISPARATE POLITICAL NEEDS AND GOALS ALSO HAVE THEIR SAY.

BECAUSE THE FED GETTING READY TO WITHDRAW SUPPORT, AND THE ECB IS GETTING READY TO START THEIR OWN QE PROGRAM, (BECAUSE THE EU IS SLIPPING INTO RECESSION), THERE WILL BE MASSIVE REDEPLOYMENT OF ASSETS GLOBALLY.

THIS IS COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT BECAUSE OF QE1-2-3, THERE IS ALREADY A MASSIVE ASSET BUBBLE.

SO INVESTMENTS ARE GOING TO FIND IT VERY HARD TO REDEPLOY.

PRIVATE BUSINESSES WILL NOT SURGE THEIR INVESTMENTS.

BECAUSE STOCK ARE ALREADY SO HIGH, BIG ASSET MANAGERS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO MAKE BIG BETS ON TO IPO'S LIKE ALIBABA - FURTHER INFLATING THE BUBBLE.

AS LONG AS CONSUMER'S INCOME AND AND CONSUMER SPENDING REMAINS FLAT AT BEST, THIS BUBBLE GROWS MORE PROBLEMATIC.

I SEE ONE WAY OUT:

A TWO PART PROGRAM THAT WILL INSTANTLY RAISE INCOMES AND REDUCE COSTS/PRICES - THEREBY IMMEDIATELY STIMULATING ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR ALL:
1 - A MORATORIUM ON ENERGY TAXES AND A ROLLBACK OF ENERGY AND EPA REGULATIONS AND AN OPENING UP OF ALL OIL/GAS EXPLORATION ON FEDERAL LANDS. 
2 - A ONE YEAR MORATORIUM ON PAYROLL TAXES - THUS GIVING PEOPLE A 7% RAISE AND BUSINESSES 7% MORE TO INVEST.
THESE TWO MOVES WOULD INSTANTLY INCREASE SPENDING AND GROW THE ECONOMY - AND DIRECTLY STIMULATE THE BUSINESSES WHICH BEST SATISFY CONSUMER NEEDS.

REDISTRIBUTION OF SLICES OF A SHRINKING PIE IS A TEMPORARY FIX AT BEST; IT DOESN'T REALLY HELP ANYONE IN THE LONG RUN.

WE REALLY NEED TO GROW THE PIE.

EVERYONE WINS WHEN WE GROW THE ECONOMY - EVERYONE THAT IS EXCEPT THAT STATISTS AND THEIR CRONIES.

A PLAN AS SIMPLE AND AS RADICAL AS MINE - AND ANY AND ALL OTHER REAL STIMULUS PLANS -  WOULD REQUIRE A WHITE HOUSE AND A CONGRESS UNDER CONTROL OF THE RIGHT.

THIS CAN'T POSSIBLY HAPPEN UNTIL 2017.

I HOPE WE CAN LAST THAT LONG.

THIS NOVEMBER WE CAN TAKE A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

IN FACT, IT'S NOVEMBER OR NEVER.


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